A Perfect Setting for Sarah Palin for VP

As I've previously written here, I believe that there are two fundamental "theories" that are essential in selecting John McCain's running mate, namely: co-opting the public's desire for change, and demonstrating the desire to end "politics as usual" in Washington.  There are a few Vice Presidential candidates who fulfill these criteria – namely, Governors Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin.  Since Governor Jindal has indicated that he isn't interested in the job, that leaves Sarah Palin as the best candidate under these criteria.

Indeed, with the nomination of Senator Biden as Barack Obama's running mate, there couldn't be a more perfect setting for a McCain-Palin ticket.  At the most basic level, Biden detracts from the entire premise of the "hope and change" theme central to the Obama campaign – he is, as Patrick Ruffini pointed out, the longest serving legislator ever on a national ticket.  Palin, on the other hand, is a Washington outsider with executive experience – and the lack of such experience on the Obama campaign is certainly something that a McCain-Palin ticket could hammer home.

The most significant benefit of Palin for VP, however, stems from the defection of former Clinton voters.  By adding a dynamic and popular female Governor to the ticket, McCain could stand to make significant inroads among disaffected Clinton voters.  Two recent polls indicate that there is a real opportunity for McCain to win over former Clinton supporters.  The USA Today/Gallup poll shows that less than half of Clinton supporters will definitely support Obama; 30% say they will support John McCain or another candidate, and another 23% may support John McCain.  The NBC/WSJ poll indicates that 21% will vote for McCain and 27% are undecided.

Therefore, it appears that McCain could win over a significant portion of former Clinton supporters – perhaps upward of 30% of them.  In critical battleground states like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the Clinton factor could easily change the race in favor of McCain.

For example, in the Pennsylvania primary, 1.275 million votes were cast for Hillary Clinton.  In Ohio, a similar 1.2 million votes were cast for Clinton.  If just 10% of those Clinton voters were to defect to McCain, that would translate into a net gain for McCain of about 127,500 votes in Pennsylvania and 120,000 votes in Ohio.  Considering that Kerry's margin of victory in 2004 in Pennsylvania was not quite 150,000 votes, winning over these disallusioned Clinton folks could prove to be a formidable edge for John McCain.

The only concern with regard to Palin's candidacy is the ongoing controversy surrounding Palin's dismissal of the Commissioner of Public Safety – however, it appears that the issue is blowing over.

There is a prospective VP nominee who could shake up this election in Governor Sarah Palin.  Let's hope that when John McCain announces his running mate, it turns out to be her.

Aaron Marks is President of Three Group, LLC, a Pittsburgh-based new media firm that focuses on providing technology-based solutions for Republican candidates and organizations, and in particular has built Web 2.0 campaign management software called Mission Control.  Aaron also worked in new media and voter outreach on Senator Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election campaign.