How to Pick a VP: Which Theory Makes the Most Sense?

Bill Kristol, an absolutely brilliant writer and one of my favorite commentators on the Right, wrote an op-ed for The New York Times today called "How to Pick a V.P."  In it, he discusses the "four competing theories in the McCain camp, which ... point in different vice-presidential directions."  Namely:

1. We’re going to defeat Obama straight up.

2. We need to accentuate Obama’s key vulnerability — inexperience.

3. Don’t fight the public desire for change; co-opt it.

4. The public is really sick of politics as usual in Washington.

The latter two theories are the two on which McCain is going to win.  But before we get to that, let's talk about why the first two won't work.

The "McCain is Going to Destroy Obama" narrative is pretty obvious:  it just doesn't make sense.  Every indication at this point is that this election is going to be close – and even if this weren't the case, even if McCain was polling ahead in every key state and was leading by double digits nationaly, it's an absolutely terrible idea to take anything for granted.  We've seen this strategy fail many times:  just look at Howard Dean's campaign in 2004.  The bottom line: there's no indication that McCain is going to going to win in a landslide, and especially in a tough year like this, we're going to have to put up a hard fight to win.

The second theory is much more interesting.  Painting Obama as inexperienced is going to be a critical part of McCain's strategy if he wants to win.  Obama has made countless gaffes in his speeches (watch the YouTube videos here for three phenomenal examples), and his flip-flopping makes John Kerry's position changes look like nothing.  However, it doesn't make sense to recruit McCain's VP based on the issue of experience because McCain is already dominating on it (see polls such as the June 25 LA Times poll here, where McCain leads Obama by 20 points on the question of "which candidate has the right experience for the White House").

Instead, let's look at the last two theories, which are the winners here.

First, the public's desire for change is as unambiguous as ever – indeed, this is why Obama has met a great deal of his success to date.  While Senator McCain is not your typical elected official by any means, he has been a politican for a long time, and so it isn't going to be quite as easy for him to convince voters that he will bring change to Washington.  As Bill writes in his op-ed, a VP candidate like Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin, or Eric Cantor could go a long way in helping McCain make the case that he can and will change Washington.

Second, it is perfectly clear that the public is tired of politics as usual in Washington.  Poll after poll has shown the public's overwhelming disapproval of Congress (not to mention President Bush).  Bill suggests a number of folks, including Joe Lieberman, Michael Bloomberg, and former EBay C.E.O. Meg Whitman as possible candidates to fill this role.  In addition to the candidates he points out, however, there are two folks from the "change" list who also fit in this group nicely: Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin.  As much as I like Congressman Cantor, having two incumbent Members of Congress running together doesn't really represent a new era of politics in D.C.  On the other hand, Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin represent both change and the idea of a new political era at a number of levels.

Both Jindal and Palin are young and enormously popular.  They have both done extraordinary work to change the political scene in their home states, and they can make the argument that their involvement in a McCain administration will help bring a new era of representing the will of the people to Washington.  Each represents a segment of the population that has never been seen as a Vice President before:  for Jindal, a minority, and in Palin's case, a woman.  And, they can even help fill in the experience gap, however minimal it may be:  they are both governors with executive experience.

Both Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin are extremely strong candidates for Vice President, and both can help advance the two arguments that will be critical to a McCain victory.  Unfortunately, Jindal has indicated that he is not interested in the Vice Presidential spot, and so that leaves Sarah Palin – who I believe is the best remaining option to fill the spot on the McCain ticket.

Aaron Marks is President of Three Group, LLC, a Pittsburgh-based new media firm that focuses on providing technology-based solutions for Republican candidates and organizations, and in particular has built Web 2.0 campaign management software called Mission Control.  Aaron also worked in new media and voter outreach on Senator Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election campaign.