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Is Obama Toast?

Submitted by aberman on Wed, 07/02/2008 - 11:52

Basically, the fact is that McCain is tied with Obama under conditions which are extremely adverse for Republicans.  If things just revert to the mean, McCain will have a massive win.

Look at some details: McCain has the more popular plan on oil.  He wins on oil if the price goes up, and he wins if the price goes down as anger at Republicans will decrease.

Neither side has really addressed the housing market.  But the latest revelations about Obama's failed housing in Chicago won't help him.

Iraq:  As the surge continues to work, McCain is helped by that as well.  And of course, there is the possibility that Iraq will be pumping even more oil in a few months.  If oil prices are decreasing around then, well, that's quite the narrative, isn't it?

Basically, McCain has nowhere to go but up.  And he's not really even down.  That's why I'm predicting 320+ electoral votes in November for McCain.

 

 

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Comments

I'm Optimistic

Submitted by Jeff Roberts on Wed, 07/02/2008 - 16:32.

I'm not onboard predicting a blowout like you are, but I think 2008 will look a lot like 2004, with McCain winning with something like a 51-48 victory, and it coming down to Ohio or Michigan.  No other election in history would someone as left-wing as Obama have a chance in hell at winning the White House.  His entire canidacy is fueled by Bush fatigue. 

I believe this moment in time is essentially the high point in the camapign for Obama.  If the best he can do is essentially tie McCain, I think McCain has a more than likely shot at winning the White House.  Once the McCain campaign gets a shot at defining Obama instead of the fawning mainstream media, he's going to have a rougher road ahead of him.

Another angle I see being played that will help McCain with independent voters is that many Americans tend to prefer divided government as a sort of insurance policy.  With an almost certain Democrat Congress, I can see a lot of voters being afraid to hand complete control of this country over to someone as radical as Obama.  If Obama had a Republican Congress to campaign against , I think his chances would be much greater.

Republicans caught a break by going against someone like Obama as oppossed to a more middle of the road Democrat.  McCain was probably the only Republican that could have won this election, and Obama was probably the only Democrat that could have lost this election.