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Some demographic realities.

Submitted by A.J.Nolte on Sat, 11/22/2008 - 12:32
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As we think about the future of the party in 2010 and beyond, it's worth looking at some demographic realities:

1. By the year 2020, Hispanic/Latinos will be approximately 18 percent of the US population, while African-Americans will remain at 13 percent. Assuming  the GOP gets 30 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote and 10 percent of the African-American vote in the presidential election of 2020, we will obtain a total of 6.7 percent of the vote in these two minority groups, while the democrats will garner 24.3 percent (these are both slight exagerations, since their may be a difference between these two groups' share of the voting population and their share of the actual population, but it'll do for now). This essentially means the Democrats will start with almost half of the votes they need to reach 50 plus 1 already locked up for the 2020 election.

2. If we look at birthrates today, Hispanics in theUS have the highest at 3.1 births per woman. Among Hispanic/Latinos, the highest birth rate is among Mexicans at 2.95 births per woman. The two lowest groups are Asian/Pacific Islanders an non-Hispanic whites. This indicates that, regardless of immigration trends, the percentage of the population which is Hispanic/Latino will continue to increase well into the future, while the white population shrinks. (Actually Mexican immigration to the US at it's current rate is virtually unsustainable, as the Mexican birthrate within Mexico continues to decline. Should the Mexican economy improve, we can expect dramatic decreases in the Mexican immigration rate to the US within ten to twenty years regardless of US government policies).

3. By 2050, whites will be 47 percent of the US population, the first time in the nation's history that whites are not an absolute majority.

 

When we talk about the need for minority outreach not only in the GOP but generally among conservatives, it's not simply a matter of political corretness folks, but a demographic necessity.

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The question as to how we appeal to

Submitted by the foundation on Sat, 11/22/2008 - 23:41.

Hispanics imply that Republicans may have to the middle; but move to the middle on what stool of the three-stools (social, economic, foreign policy)?  People assume that it's ditching the social cons but actually, Hispanics may be most drawn to that aspect of our three stools.  After all, how did Bush win 44% of Hispanics in 2004?  Recall that moral values were the #1 issue for the 2004 election and that hispanics tend to be fairly socially conservative.

So do we ditch fiscal conservatism or neo-conservatism to appeal to Hispanics?  I don't think we have to do either but rather, change the way we talk about the economy so we own the middle-class again.  But social issues remain one our strongest weapons if we are to appeal to minorities.

Couldn't agree more.

Submitted by A.J.Nolte on Mon, 11/24/2008 - 10:15.

You'll never win hispanic voters with a pro-gay-marriage pro-abortion message. Not gonna happen. You don't really need to ditch fiscal conservatives either; you may have to talk about education, healthcare and so on more robustly from a free-market perspective, but I don't think big government is inevitable in Hispanic/Latino communities. As for foreign policy, you'd be surprised how conservative some Hispanics/Latinos can be on this issue. High levels of patriotism, lots of family members in the military. I'll be doing a big post on Latino outreach specifically soon I think, but suffice it to say, for now, that you're pretty well on target.

Bush did not get 44% of the Hispanic vote

Submitted by superdestroyer on Mon, 11/24/2008 - 10:38.

The statistic that Bush received 44% of the Hispanic vote has been disproved many times.  Even the Democrats will admit that Bush received less than 40% of the Hispanic vote.  When the voting patterns of Texas Counties where Hispanics are the dominate group, Bush ever received anywhere near 40% of the vote.

At best Bush received around 35% of the Hispanic vote and would have received less if the Democrats had spent a dollar in California on getting Hispanics to vote.

Hispancis are not conservatives and are not motivated to vote based on social issues.  Hispanics are looking for government handouts and thus will always vote for the Democratic Party. 

Looked what happened when the Republicans tried to pander to Hispanics.  The harmed the Republican Party and produce no new Hispanics votes for Republicans.

Republicans are just going to have to admit that they screwd up by supporting open borders and unlimited immigration and the price of the error will be higher taxes, more government, more sprawl, bad schools, and high crime.   I guess whites will enventually be pakced into a few states to avoid the third world conditions that will dominate most of America. And they will pay high prices and extremely high taxes to keep avoiding the problems that they have caused.