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ARG: Hillary up by 26 points in South Dakota

Submitted by Alexander Brunk on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 14:32
in

The conventional wisdom is that Obama will win handily in both of the remaining primaries. But that may not be the case. H/T Pollster.com

 

South Dakota:

Hillary 60

Obama 34

 

Montana:

Hillary 44

Obama 48

Now, ARG has been wrong before. But 26 points is quite a margin.

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ARG... eh

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 14:34.

While the sheer size of this margin can't be discounted, another poll last week had Obama up by double digits.

Based purely on demographic analysis, we should see an even race in South Dakota and a 5-10 point win for Obama in Montana.

The significance about the

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 14:58.

The significance of the expected double-digit win for Obama in Montana is that Montana is one of the whitest, blue-collar-est states in the Union.

If only it wasn't ARG.

Submitted by amerpun on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 15:03.

They've been kind of off this year, but a commenter at Pollster writes:

 

"On MSNBC within the half hour I heard Andrea Mitchell say that the South Dakota numbers really closed according to Obama campaign."

 

eggs-actly. The problem is, we

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 15:10.

eggsactly. The problem is, we really don't have any reputable polling in either state.

What's with the West?

Submitted by Jon Sandor on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 18:37.

The CW is that Obama does well with blacks and latte liberals, neither of which are plentiful in SD or Montana. So why does he do so well in these states?