Ironman's blog

The owner of the NFL New England Patriots, Bob Kraft, has persuaded the Deval Patrick administration to spend $ 9 million of federal stimulus money to build a footbridge between parking lots at Foxboro's Gillette Stadium. 

I simply cannot believe that this is the most pressing use of money to jumpstart the Commonwealth's economy, but then again, Bob Kraft did max out for the Patrick campaign. So, I'm sure this became far more important to the Massachusetts economy than say, fixing bottlenecked ramps off I-290.

Of course, Kraft is happy to cajole public favors, like his use of Hartford as a bargaining chip to get MA state funds to build roads into Gillette Stadium in the first place. Sleaze

Something tells me this is NOT what the original "Patriots" fought the Revolution over

It wasn't "Give me corporate welfare, or give me death!" 

Now that the dust has settled, I thought it might be useful to look at the off-year election and consider what alternative strategies might have yielded.  One thing I've learned about politics is never to buy determinism; there are always a variety of possible outcomes.

Well, here's a few scenarios:

a) Terry McAulliffe was the Democratic nominee for Virginia Governor

It's what everyone expected. Would he have done better than Deeds; or was his weak primary showing evidence he'd have been roadkill in the general election?

b) Jon Corzine stands down on October 1;  NJ Dems do the "Torricelli switch" to Rep. Frank Pallone or Newark Mayor Cory Booker

In retrospect, my belief that Corzine was burnt toast proved correct. It's hard to fault his campaign for his loss, the voters simply wanted him gone. But what if after using Corzine's cash to bloody up Christie the NJ Dems threw a "relief pitcher" into the race? Different outcome? Or would NJ voters reacted poorly to this strategy being used twice? 

c) Deeds runs as an anti-Obama "New Democrat" ala Mark Warner; focuses on downstate VA

or

d) Deeds runs as a outspoken Obamabot and focuses on NOVA

The consensus is Deeds did neither well and got crushed. Would choosing one or the other have made any difference?

e) No one outside NY State comes to the aid of Doug Hoffman

The Club for Growth, Sarah Palin, Erick Erickson and Glenn Beck are credited or blamed for what happened in NY 23. Given what happened in the local state senate race in 2004, I think the NY Conservative Party was capable under its own power to ensure Scozzafava's defeat? Agree? Disagree?

And what would the national impact of a "quiet" Owens victory have been?

Throw some other possible scenarios out there. Let's reverse engineer these races if we can.

Could someone offer a cogent explanation for this stuff that does not include the words "fraud"or "scam" ?

If a private investor put this dreck in the mail they'd be facing a host of federal statutory violations.

Here’s a stimulus success story: In Arizona’s 9th Congressional District, 30 jobs have been saved or created with just $761,420 in federal stimulus spending. At least that’s what the website set up by the Obama Administration to track the $787 billion stimulus says.

There’s one problem, though: There is no 9th Congressional District in Arizona; the state has only eight Congressional Districts.

There’s no 86th Congressional District in Arizona either, but the government’s recovery.gov Web site says $34 million in stimulus money has been spent there

But there's more

In fact, Recovery.gov lists hundreds of millions spent and hundreds of jobs created in Congressional districts that don't exist.

In Oklahoma, for example, the site lists more than $19 million in spending — and 15 jobs created — on Congressional districts that don't exist. In Iowa, it shows $10.6 million spent – and 39 jobs created — in non-existent districts.

In Connecticut's 42nd District (which also does not exist), the website claims 25 jobs created with zero stimulus dollars.

We should have caught on quicker when we saw listings for jobs created in Bloom County, Gotham City, San Andreas, Sunnydale, and Sodor.

UPDATE: A reader reports, "I have heard the congressmen representing Lake Woebegone, MN and Margaritaville, FL are livid those communities did not get their fair share of stimulus funding."

I can speak from personal knowledge that Connecticut has never had more than six congressional districts. If it now has 42, I may want to announce my candidacy for the open seat. 

Jeez, and I thought Vice President Biden was on top of all this and "no one messes with Joe"

So when we are told that we must give full faith and credit to any economic number generated by the Obama Administration that appears inconsistent with observed reality, please ask him where Arizona's 86th Congressional District is.

Yep, even the Politico has caught on.

President Obama takes heat on Afghan timing 

SHANGHAI, China – President Barack Obama made no effort to conceal his irritation when his press corps used the first question of his maiden Far East trip to ask what was taking him so long on Afghanistan.

 

Jennifer Loven of The Associated Press had asked: “Can you explain to people watching and criticizing your deliberations what piece of information you're still lacking to make that call.”

Yep, just as President Reagan was  the "Great Communicator", our 44th President is the "Great Procrastinator" 

I note that a Google Search of "Obama" and "dithering" yielded 743,000 hits

I mean there was a single by the Lovin' Spoonful in 1966 that might be the theme song for the President's military "strategy"

Chris Dodd has a polling profile reminscent of NJ Governor Jon Corzine. He's behind, he's been behind for a long while, and the poll internals indicate he's likely to stay behind.

Given that the election is less than a year away, how could Dodd eke out a victory?

Have an opponent with high negatives. Thankfully for him, one is already in the race.

Five Republicans are in the race now. Former Congressman Rob Simmons has yet to run TV ads, but has residual name ID in central and eastern CT from his days in Congress. He is leading  Dodd by 11 points.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has run TV ads . He is leading Dodd by 7 points.

The other three candidates--Linda McMahon, Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff--all are in effective dead heats with Dodd in the 43-41% range.  So they are equal, right?

No. McMahon is the weakest of the lot.  Neither Caligiuri or Schiff have spent dime one on TV ads, while McMahon has blanketed the state--even running ads on NYC TV. Yet she fares no better than the more frugal candidates in the race.

The secret here is while McMahon is buying name recognition, much of it is already negative. 

According to Quinnipiac Simmons's image is now 40% favorable , 10% unfavorable. His rating with unaffiliated voters is 42% favorable- 7% unfavorable.

Linda McMahon did not make such a good first impression.    She rates at 20% favorable to 13% unfavorable.  14% of unaffiliates and 15% of men already have a negative impression of the wrestling mogul.

Amazingly, more people in CT dislike Linda McMahon after a few weeks in elective politics than dislike Rob Simmons after nearly 20 years at  the trade.

The rule of thumb is that a challenger's early numbers usually have to run 2 to 1 favorable to have a shot at an incumbent. McMahon's slick campaign ain't getting the split she needs. And Lord knows what's going to happen if and when Dodd unloads some negatives on her. Sure she'll have plenty of cash to respond, but methinks Chris Dodd will enjoy the mudfest. It's not like his numbers can go much further down.

Now one would think Dodd's dream---a rookie opponent with high and rising negatives--couldn't come true. But it might due to the quirks of the CT GOP and our geography.

Rob Simmons is very well known in eastern CT, which does not have many registered Republicans.  But he is not well known in heavily Republican Fairfield County, which is served by NYC TV.    McMahon's been on those stations; Simmons never has.

I suspect the reason the ballot test for the CT primary is now 28% Simmons - 17% McMahon is heavily due to Simmons having low visibility in the southwestern part of CT.

So all of McMahon's millions got her the same ballot test as the candidates not spending money, and the highest negative ratings in the Republican field.

I suggest CT Republicans take a long hard look at these poll internals. When a candidate makes a tepid first impression, it usually doesn;t improve by just pouring resources into the same suboptimal message.

And if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of the weakened Dodd now after spending millions, why would she be when her negatives inevitably rise?

Let's not do Chris Dodd any favors, please

The Latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and Dodd is still down.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

He loses as well to Linda McMahon and Tom Foley, and is in a dead heat with Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff

Why?  Because CT voters don;t find him trustworthy and don't think he cares about their issues.They also don;t think he's doing a a good job on the economy.

Support for the Democratic health plan, although higher here than most places, is slipping.

The good news for Dodd, if any, is that Simmons does face a primary challenge of significance from the "Wild RINO". But in a matter of weeks she's raised her negative rating almost as fast as her positive rating. Oops!

Chris Christie had a primary too, Didn;t help Corzine. And the pattern of Q polls on Dodd is looking more and more like the pattern of polls on Corzine before his failed re-election bid.

One would think it would be impossible to screw up voting on a nonbinding resolution congratulating a sports team, but Mr. Arrogance, Congressman Chris Murphy, succeeded in the politically impossible.

He insulted his constituents across a majority of his district. 

U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy voted against a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives that congratulated the New York Yankees on recently winning the World Series

Now why would a politician do this? OK, there were a few members from Massachusetts, metro Philadelphia, and one sore Anaheim Angel fan out there who voted no. But a Connecticut congressman? 

The 5th District is located primarily in Fairfield and New Haven counties.  As the Quinnipiac poll demonstrates, not only are the Yankees the most popular baseball team in CT, they are especially popular in that part of the state.

In fact, the largest city completely within the 5th District is only 56 miles from Yankee Stadium

I haven't seen any polling on this point, but I strongly suspect Derek Jeter is hell of a lot more popular than some Nancy Pelosi lapdog in Congress

So back to the point, why Chris?, Why anger your constituents who are celebrating a well earned victory?

As a lifelong diehard Sox fan, I have too many scars from Bucky Dent to Aaron Boone to add another from casting a vote to congratulate the Yankees for winning this year’s World Series," Murphy said. 

Sounds like a whole lot of sour grapes and arrogance, Mr. Murphy.  You would think a liberal Democrat would appreciate a team that wins even after paying a "luxury tax". Oh boo hoo, Chris.

That's Ok Chris, we'll let all your constituents in southwestern Connecticut know you are a petty little man who saw fit to insult a team they've rooted for all their lives.  Perhaps your career will then emulate that of this brilliant Red Sox legend

It had been the topic of lots of rumors in CT political circles over the past few weeks, but at 5pm tonight Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell ended the speculation.

She will not seek re-election in 2010

Needless to say, there's a lot of speculation now as to the proximate cause. Rell's incredibly positive image took a hit over the summer due to the state budget crisis; her effort to force fiscal conservatism resulted in a state budget agreement she expressed little enthusiasm for. It's hard to be a moderate Republican and stay popular when you have to tell a ravenous liberal legislature the cupboard is bare.

I think the bigger reason is Rell is a 63 year old woman with a chronically ill husband.  Can't fault that as a reason for retirement.

This of course shuffles the deck for the 2010 election with Rell's Lieutenant Governor, Mike Fedele, seeking to run as the GOP candidate. Other possiblities are State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and State House Minority Leader Larry Cafero.  None of them are household names, which has led some to wonder if Senate candidate Rob Simmons might be lobbied to change races.

As for the Democrats, the most notorious candidate is 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont.  No word if that causes Joe Lieberman to endorse a Republican. Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy and Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz have been running for months, but might be eclipsed by the Lamont entry.

The Democrats haven;t won an election for Governor in CT since 1986. Their chances of breaking the streak improved tonight.    

In the wake of NY 23  all eyes pointed to the Club for Growth to ascertain where they would jump in next to promote fiscally conservative candidates. And in light of this article, one wonders if they have CT in mind as one of their next venues  

Beyond Florida, other establishment Republicans may be looking over their shoulders. Chocola, a former House Republican from Indiana, noted that he served with Rep. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.), both running for the Senate.

“They’re both good guys, but they don’t fit the bill as Club for Growth candidates,” he said.

Before his organization decides to jump in, however, he said the group has to see how those races develop, and whether a clear “Club” alternative surfaces.

“The best Kirk and Simmons can expect is that we leave them alone,” Chocola said.

So, Simmons, who has had to revise prior positions on cap and trade; as well as card check, and recently made a rather conciliatory statement on the public option, might find himself not just  overlooked by the fiscal conservative masterminds, but even challenged by a serious committment of time and resources by the Club.  The Club may not always succeed, but their targets are always aware the Club tried.

So, who would the Club for Growth think would be a viable opponent for Chris Dodd?  Who is fiscally conservative enough to warrant their support, a candidate capable of actually winning against Dodd in the general election, and a candidate who actually could use their support?.

There are four other Republicans in the U.S. Senate race besides Simmons. I believe we can write off two names.  Linda McMahon is , of course, "the Wild RINO". Besides, why should the Club send some of its limited money to CT to subsidize a self-funding billionaire? 

Peter Schiff, the former Ron Paul advisor, is certainlly in favor of limited government, but his agenda is so doctrinaire as to make him a very poor investment of Club resources. Perhaps Idaho is ready for 180 proof libertarianism; CT, not so much. Besides, his campaign to date has just done moneybombs and has no traction on the ground.

That leaves Tom Foley and Sam Caligiuri. Foley has been running cute ads with babies, but he's never run a political campaign and whether he can win an election is an open question.

There's one candidate running in CT right now who a) has a proven record of fiscal conservatism and b) has a proven record of winning elections. That's Sam Caligiuri.

2010 might be exactly the year to run a state senator who stood up against a Governor in his own party to vote "no" on an ultimately disasterous state budget. And that made Sam Caligiuri the only CT State Senator to oppose a budget that left the state in a huge deficit. 

It might also be a good year to run a candidate who won a formerly Democratic legislative seat in the Democratic tsunami of 2006.      

And given the issue environment, it might make sense to run a candidate praised for his ability on the stump and described as a "proud Reagan Republican"

I have no idea what the decision making processes at the Club are. Certaintly Rob Simmons is a far cry from the elasticity of Charlie Crist--Simmons is a good guy and generally helpful to other Republicans.  But the Club is looking for alternative to the "Certified Pre-Owned Candidates".

Sam Caligiuri is the sort of guy they would be looking at in Connecticut. And, they did sound like they wanted to play, now didn't they?

The Politico reports that the White House under Rahm Emanuel orchesterated the Scozzafava endorsement of Bill Owens in NY 23.

Fearful that the party had almost no chance of winning the Nov. 3 New York special election after Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out, high-ranking national Democrats immediately began working to secure her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, POLITICO has learned.

 

 

On Sunday afternoon, their vigorous efforts paid off as Scozzafava bucked her own party and issued a statement supporting Owens over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, a coup for Democrats who recognized that their best remaining chance of winning the Republican-leaning seat on Tuesday was to swing disaffected Scozzafava supporters their way. By Sunday night, Scozzafava had taped her endorsement and it was being delivered via robo-call into targeted district households.

 

 

The story of how it went down began in Washington, where the White House and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee quarterbacked the effort to secure Scozzafava’s endorsement.

And if you think the real reason for this 11th hour betrayal was about helping her district, please. We are talking about an Albany politician, now.

Scozzafava was offered material inducements for her endorsement from Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. 

Also critical was Silver’s assurance, in a phone conversation with Scozzafava, that the state Assembly Democratic caucus would embrace her if she chose to switch parties, now viewed as a real possibility after her endorsement Sunday of Owens.

 

 

June O'Neill, until earlier this year the New York Democratic Party chair, played an even more important role in courting Scozzafava, according to one New York official, because they “go to the same social events—church bingo night and the high school dance.”

It now seems highly likely Scozzafava is going to switch parties and be assured of various legislative perks---maybe even a chairmanship-- from Speaker Silver. And she will be assured  of  hige financial backing from the NY Democrats for her re-election. And who knows how many "member items" are going to be dangled her way?

There's an old saying that an honest politician is one who stays bought. I suppose we will see in a few days if that describes Ms. Scozzafava