badlydrawnjeff's blog

It feels like the only thing I get to read from a lot of conservative blogs since Obama's election is how the conservative movement is in shambles, how the Republican Party has lost its way, etc. I was in the boat for a few days, and while there is some regrouping that needs to be done, I think those on the right who are in dire straits - and those on the left who are rubbing their hands together - need to take a step back a bit. Things aren't so bad, and this is why:

1) Conservatism Generally Isn't Trendy: I say "generally" because Ronald Reagan largely bucked this trend. Even then, the trendiness of Reagan had as much to do with how ineffectual Carter was as the reality of Reagan as one of the great communicators. But, generally speaking, conservatism isn't trendy. It's an ideas-based, values-based ideology, and one that resonates best when sticking to its principles. I'll come back to that point, but contrast it with the Obama campaign that generated, purposefully or not, a cult of personality complete with art and songs and what have you. No matter how good your ideas are, you're going to have a lot of trouble beating a fad, and that's the type of buzzsaw that the Republican Party and the conservative movement ran into this year. After all, for comparison, Kid A came out in 2000, but N'Sync's No Strings Attached is still the highest selling debut week in history from that same year - sometimes the superior doesn't always resonate.

2) Barack Obama Can't Run Every Year: I have to highlight this following the Georgia run-off and the results of the Minnesota Senate race - with Barack Obama on the ballot, Democrats will do better as a result. In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss couldn't pull a majority. When Obama's not there to boost turnout? A massive swing. On the same token, in Minnesota, Franken never polled as well as Obama in Minnsesota, it's difficult to imagine that he'd come close to Coleman if there wasn't something else to boost Democratic turnout. The true test of this will be in 2010, of course - granted, one can't expect the trend of the White House party in power to be bucked again like it was in 2002 with Bush, but the likelihood of Democrats getting an extra 4-6% of downticket support is unlikely in 2010. 2012 might be a different story altogether, but it's obviously too soon to see how the left will ultimately react to an Obama Presidency.

3) We're Still Center-Right as a Nation: As much as I'd like to say that Obama's waffling on Iraq and taxes is evidence of this, we have more significant evidence than that: even with Obama's apparent mandate, the electorate doesn't agree with his original positions on issues such as drilling or the death penalty, not even touching moral issues. The reality is that the conservative or even center point of view is more like to win out today, and the demographics are trending toward that as well - young people overwhelmingly want to be able to opt out of Social Security, and, to use a Presidential poll, the investor class (defined as folks who have more than $5000 invested in stocks) trend conservative/Republican. A majority of Americans own stock today, and if you invest, you're more likely to vote conservative/Republican. We elected a hardline liberal into the White House this year, and elected some hardline liberals into the House and Senate. This isn't evidence of a shifting electorate as much as what appears to be a unique circumstance.

4) Conservatives Can Win as Conservatives, Not as Centrists: We saw this happen a bit during the special elections between 2006 and 2008 - squishy, centrist (if not left-leaning) Republicans against Blue Dog Democrats, Republicans are going to fail. The plus side to the losses in 2006 by the Republicans was the way many of the Republicans who lost were ones Republicans could afford to lose in the long term. While it's hard to say whether any conservative could have won against Obama in the Fall 2008 political climate, running a guy who's spent most of his Senate career annoying conservatives may not have been the brightest move.

This isn't to say there aren't some marketing issues to be addressed, or that the Democrats haven't possibly made some strides, but I do think things are better than they look.

President - John McCain over Barack Obama: No, I wasn't a fan of the last four years, either. Why? Not the war, not the political posturing, but the government spending, the government interference, and the lack of a consistent, coherent domestic policy. In terms of what we're going to get in the next President, neither McCain or Obama have significant answers to deal with those issues, but the utter naiveté and incoherence of a possible Obama Presidency should turn anyone off. Yet the mantra of change and the mistaken beliefs of what's actually happened over the last eight years have seem to taken over any real true discussion of the issues on either side. This isn't 2004, where we had a pretty lousy President but a defining issue that drew a clear line - this time, Iraq is off the table and yet many are looking at that as an issue still. What's left, then? An untenable energy policy? An unsustainable spending plan? A tax plan that will harm the economy by Obama's own admission and will increase your taxes? And yes, it will - if the Bush tax cuts expire and you pay federal taxes, you'll see an increase with no guarantee that Obama's preferred tax credits are anything you'll qualify for. This is where the Obama candidacy falls apart - the details. If this election were a referendum on honesty, we'd all be forced to vote "none of the above." I'm pretty sure we can all agree on that. But if you want actual change - not the hopey snake oil kind that Obama's been peddling - McCain's the guy you want in there. His voting record is more moderate, his reputation for reaching across the aisle well-known, and his ability to get things done in the face of what appear to be impossible political circumstances legendary. More importantly, no one can doubt his commitment to what he believes is right. This is not some knock on Obama's patriotism or anything like that, but a knock on Obama's judgment - when a person so blatantly makes decisions based not on what he believes is right, but what appears to be politically tenable or desirable (see: Iraq, FISA, public financing for campaigns), that's not real change, that's the same thing you've been complaining about for the last 8 years. Obama reminds me of the exploitation filmmakers that I spend so much time researching - sure, you get to see naked people in their natural habitat, but you'll have to sit through an uncompelling frame reel of native people to get there. If you really think you're going to get what you're voting for, I'm not sure what to say. I'm damning McCain with faint praise here. My reason for voting for him is singular - Sarah Palin. It's a shame that the campaign foolishly allowed the media to define her before she got the chance, because she's a dynamic, intelligent, and capable politician who, if there's any justice in the world, should have a long career ahead of her. She's still a politician at heart - anyone who gets to this level ultimately is - but when I say she's "change I can believe in," I mean it because it's true - she walks the walk where the head of the Democratic ticket is merely talking it. But here's the only pitch I can give you in a time where I simply didn't have the personal mental energy to make the pitch for the last few months - McCain has actually been someone who's stood for change repeatedly. Often, you've liked the change, often not. But McCain will be up against a Democratic Congress, and that's a situation he absolutely relishes. In a term where Iraq won't matter, universal health care isn't on the table, and the Court really truly isn't in the balance (let's be blunt - I'd rather not see the three liberal seats filled with clones of their predecessors, but a Democratic Congress shouldn't let the opposite happen and there are only two rock-solid anti-Roe votes in the conservative wing anyway), where do we go? If you're "voting for change" Obama-style, you're doing it because you want to see things get done. Does Obama give you that confidence? More importantly, are you truly confident that the Obama platform, whether you agree with it or not, is one that's best for the country under the current circumstances? Are you really confident he has it in him, when he didn't even have it in him to do it while he's had power, when he didn't have it in him to stick to his plans on the campaign trail? The parallels between 2008 and 1932 are really scary to me at this point, and we know how that turned out. Let's not fall into the same trap. As Americans, we deserve better than Barack Obama. It's that simple for me. Maybe his opponent is far from optimal. Maybe your guy got bounced out in the primaries. Maybe your favorite politicians never run. Maybe you've never wanted to vote before this year. In any regard, if you refuse to give a third party your vote, then consider going with McCain. This is important enough to me where I'm voting for a major party ticket for the first time ever. I was once a card carrying member of the Libertarian Party. Go figure - it's that important. Polls as of Sunday night put Obama up anywhere from +5 to +16 in New Hampshire with significant overweighting of Democrats. Internals for the campaigns appear to be as such where both McCain and Obama spent time here this weekend. My vote might actually matter on this one.

US Senate - John Sununu over Jeanne Shaheen: John Sununu has been one of my favorite Senators since he was elected. Again, imperfect, but he's principled and energetic, and stands for the right things economically, which is a big deal for me. Jeanne Shaheen, on the other hand, was the former New Hampshire governor who increased taxes, fees, and spending up here in ways that were completely unnecessary and antithetical to the attitude up here. I'll be honest - I want Sununu to win this, and I've done what I can to make that happen, but you could also make the argument that he didn't deserve to get in the first time, so I'm of two minds about the possible loss for Sununu. I think he's more politically deserving, but karma is a harsh mistress. Polls as of Sunday night say Shaheen +8, again with significant overweighting of Democrats. My gut calls it for Shaheen, but if McCain turns out the vote as well as he's known to do up here, who knows.

New Hampshire Governor - Joe Kenney over John Lynch: The only good thing I can significantly say about Kenney is that he's not a governor who drove the state into a $250m budget deficit, signed a smoking ban, floated a seatbelt law, and signed various tax hikes in otherwise individual and business friendly New Hampshire. Unfortunately, Joe Kenney's campaign has been absolutely pathetic, and he's nothing more than a token opponent for Lynch to destroy. I'll vote for Kenney because he's not Lynch - hardly a ringing endorsement, but there you have it. The most recent poll I've seen had Lynch beating Kenney 65-14. Worse, that's the best showing I've seen Kenney get yet. This is probably the only sure thing we have going up here.

United States House of Representatives: NH-1 - Jeb Bradley over Carol Shea-Porter: The best I can say for Bradley is that he got swept out in the 2006 Republican purge, and was one of the few who truly didn't deserve it. If you look at Shea-Porter's "achievements" as our representative, it's stunning how completely contradictory it is to basic New Hampshire ideals. That I only moved up here 18 months ago and appear to "get it" more than Shea-Porter does is fairly damning. Her worst position by far is her apparent support of the Employee Free Choice Act, which removes the requirement for a secret ballot for unionization, but to highlight that alone fails to even begin talking about her robotic party line stances on taxes, health care, and the war. She's among the worst American politics has to offer period, and Bradley deserves to get back in based on that alone. The latest local poll I've seen has a statistical dead heat, Shea-Porter +3 on a 5.5% margin of error, with Bradley closing the gap in particular. This poll is also among the same overweighting of Democrats, so I'm very confident about a Bradley victory on this.

State Representatives - Keith Murphy, Rich Tomasso, Dick Martson: One libertarian conservative, one actual Libertarian, one standard Republican. We can vote for eight, but I'm not 100% comfortable with re-electing any of them, since all they've done is carry water for John Lynch. George Katsiantonis, Democrat, is one of my current Representatives, and he doesn't offend me that much, but he's still in there and should go on principle. On his vote, however, I reserve the right to change my mind.

Hello fellow Next Righters!

I'm hoping, as June rolls in, to document the major New Hampshire races coming up - specifically the governor race where incumbent John Lynch and his merry band of budget breakers are facing semi-grassroots opponent Joe Kenney, the extra-important Jean Shaheen/John Sununu Senate race, and the easily-doable Jeb Bradley/Carol Shea-Porter race in Manchester's House district.

For more about me (short answer: Massachusetts ex-pat, libertarian atheist conservative who focuses more on economic issues and is trying to convince himself to vote for McCain and failing), you can visit my website. I'm currently a registered independent, supported Ron Paul in the primary and kind of regret it, and I'm tired of being 27 and lacking like-minded folks my age who want to stand up, be heard, act, etc.

Back on topic, one of the interesting issues I've faced thus far is how difficult it has been to get involved, however. GraniteGrok has touched on this a bit regarding Sununu's campaign - the campaigns have been scary silent up to this point, and continue to be difficult - multiple e-mails to Sununu's campaign headquarters have gone unanswered for me, and my one attempt at visiting the campaign office during what would be considered "business hours" ten minutes from my home bore no fruit. At least Jeb Bradley has a Facebook presence, and even then, that's not going to win against an incumbent in an urban area. You'd think these candidates would want our help!

A lot of virtual ink has been spilled about the lack of good, bottom-up movement on the web and elsewhere, and I can't speak for any other campaigns, but the right is in big, big trouble if the early reads on the campaigns up here are similar nationwide. My hope is to document life on the ground here - if they ever let me on the ground - and other aspects of the New Hampshire greater landscape. Expect more posts from me as June rolls around.