CJK's blog

I glanced at gallup and rasmussen and Obama has gained major ground....

In fact he has gained more ground/maintained the same ground since the end of the convention even though he hasn't done anything...

I'm guessing here that the terrible poll numbers are a result of media scrutiny of Palin, in combination with the post-convention bounce for the deomocrats. I'm not sure how long post-covention bounces last, but you would think given the intensity of coverage that they would fade faster in this election than others. If this isn't fixed fast the ticket could be doomed. Let's hope the RNC intro is good....

UPDATE: 2000 Polls

Gallup, 8 days after RNC Convention: Bush 56, Gore 40 (Likely voters)

But among registered voters they were still tied....

The DNC Convention merely pushed Gore back to a tie, although he gained more ground in September.

UPDATE II: For the entire month of August (which included the RnC/DNC conventions), Bush's average poll lead was 5 points.

I just want to respond to some of the comments made about my previous post about McCain and his bad veep options.

You loathed Romney? You were probably a Huck-supporter, and thus a self-righteous populist. There's a reason why Rush Limbaugh, the biggest voice of true conservatism, always criticized Huck and McCain, yet praised Romney, subtly, yet often.

Actually, I didn't think much of Huck either. His style always seemed very similar to the conservative southern democrats that once existed. His tax plan was unworkable and his positions made clear that he supported vast increases of "infrastrucutre" spending. 

Perhaps "loathed" was too strong. My problem with Romney was mainly the way he was being presented, not necessarily the man himself. Rush and many other prominent conservatives promoted him on the basis that he was a true conservative.  But Romney, it must be remembered, raised taxes as governor, suffered poor job growth in MA, instituted an expensive health care system that has been slammed by the Wall Street Journal as a prelude to Obama/Hillarycare, and promised to bail out the auto industry in Michigan. Some would say that that sort of record would make him an "abolute disaster". In any case, I don't see how any of those reflect "true conservatism".       

Not much there that would sawy voters to Obama since they were fights about conservative ideology and not really about fundamentals like experience.  "Dont vote McCain because McCain said Romney flipflopped on an issue" is really really really lame.     

But I'm pretty sure that Romney slammed McCain for not knowing enough about the economy. Since that is the Democrat's big theme, they probably have already prepared an ad similar to the Biden one, where they can go "See? Even his veep admits he can't handle the economy".

Palin would be a good pick.

Another problem with Palin, though, is that she is a pretty recent governor (Dec. 2006) and an NBC poll has shown that 20% are actually less likely to support McCain if he picks a woman.

Of course, since McCain has zero chance of winning, it does not really matter who he picks.                            

Really? He's almost tied with BO (prompting notcable panic from the Dems), slightly ahead in the electoral college, and he has a zero chance? Can't he at least get a 25% chance out of this?                 

I think this tells me more about you then you're trying to tell us about McCain's VP picks. He, himself, is an absolute disaster. I still feel sick that we have him to represent us.

So I guess the rumors are that McCain veep pick has been narrowed to three people: Lieberman, Romney, and Pawlenty.

All three of these guys are going to inflict damage on him:

Lieberman--It's not just that he's pro-choice. His entire domestic policy platform is, in general, far to the left of McCain's. He'd have to repudiate about half his policy positions to get on the ticket and it won't be pretty. It will look like an act of desperation on McCain's part, an admission that he's too close to Bush. This risky option currently makes zero sense for McCain.

Romney--At first glance this guy makes a great VP, and I say that even though I myself loathed him during the primaries. The idea is that he can help carry Nevada and Michigan and add economic expertise to the ticket. Furthermore, he'd be a great attack dog against Obama. But he has three huge drawbacks: 1) Religious conservatives don't like him 2) The Democrats will slam him for layoffs while he was in the private sector and 3) considering that McCain is using primary material to go after Biden, Obama will almost certainly replay the McCain/Romney fights.

Pawlenty--This man is still unknown outside Minnesota. The only things I myself know about him are that he only narrowly won the governorship of Minnesota and has been a "reformer". That might help him counter Obama's "change" mantra, but I just don't know. Since I have never listened to him speak I can't say if he'd be an articulate veep or a good attack dog. He doesn't have foreign policy cred either. But he'd be my choice by process of elimination.

There are some other names floating around, but I don't think they are seriously being considered:

Ridge--A non-conservative who probably can't carry Pennsylvania.

Palin--Alaska governor but I heard she gave bad interviews or something.

Portman--A Bush guy. Disqualified.

Kasich--He might have said something dumb while he was doing that show on Fox News.

Cantor--Another unknown congressmen.

My take on Obama's potential veeps:

Joe Biden--What a loudmouth! This guy personifies the unlikable. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that In 1991 he said George H.W. Bush was sending a generation of Americans to their death in the Persian Gulf (total deaths were around 300). He then flipped and voted for the recent war in 2002, eventually flipping again. Just recently he said the "bad guys" weren't in Iraq. He has foreign policy cred, but if foreign policy is the issue Obama loses anyway. Plus, he's from an irrelevant blue state.

Tim Kaine--Based on what I heard this guy is just as bad as Obama on the experience front. His attempts to kiss up to BO by claiming that the Russians were following his calls for a ceasefire should have disqualified him by now.

Bill Richardson--Richardson has executive and foreign policy experience. Too bad he doesn't act like he does. This man was almost as unlikable as Joe Biden during the primaries, and his inability to shut up during the debates turned me off faster than Obama's lame excuses. He's from a swing state, but I doubt McCain will get the Hispanic support neccessary to win New Mexico anyway.

Hillary Clinton--What contest in Hell do we have to win to get an Obama-Hillary ticket? I think this could scare off as many independents as Democrats it could attract. If she wanted him to win she wouldn't have dragged on the primary race until June. But really, what's in it for Hillary? She wouldn't be able to run in 2012 and would get part blame when Obama inevitably screws up. She'd be better off as Senate Majority leader where she could look bipartisan by opposing Barry's excesses.

Evan Bayh--He co-sponsored the Iraq War but he could just say he was tricked by Bush/Cheney and most people would swallow it whole. Besides that, there's really no downside to Obama, and Bayh would give him a good shot at taking Indiana. A boring white guy who is considered a centrist is just what Obama needs to balance the ticket.

This is a bit late, but Pew has put out a new report showing that the race has tightened since June from an eight point Obama lead to three points. 

I wish to briefly summarize notable demographic characteristics:

*McCain gets the support of 87% of Republicans vs. Obama getting 83% of Democrats.  Only 72% of Hillary supportes support Obama compared to 88% of Romney/Huckabee/Giuliani supporters backing McCain.

*McCain has gained significantly among men, gaining 9 points in this group and leading 49-41.  By comparison, women back Obama 51-38, almost unchanged since June.

*McCain has gained 4 points among both whites and blacks.

*Obama's support among the 18-29 crowd is as strong as ever and he has cut McCain's margin among seniors by three.  However, Obama lost nine points among those 30-49 and lost six among those 50-64.

*Obama has gained 5 points among college graduates but has lost 5 points among those with some college. Most dramatically, Obama's edge among those with a high school education or less fell by eleven points.

*McCain's edge among whites is about the same as Bush's in the past two elections, but the regional composition is different.

*Obama is doing better with Northeastern whites than Gore or Kerry and has opened up a 4 point lead.  By contrast, McCain's margin among Southern whites actually exceeds Bush's margins at this stage.

*McCain is doing worse in the midwest than in 2000 and better than in 2004.  The west is about the same.

*Lower income whites and voters over 50 are substantially more supportive of McCain than Bush in 2004.

*McCain is now getting the same evangelical support that Bush got last time.

Drawing from Confederate Yankee and others I wish to present, for reference purposes, the current list of people who are under or will be under Obama's bus.

UNDER THE BUS

Rev. Jeremiah Wright--Obama's crazy hate-filled pastor for 20 years who was thrown under about a month after Obama said he couldn't disown him.

Fr. Michael Pleger--Successor of Jeremiah Wright, attacked critics for trying to defame Wright's "integrity".

8,000 members of Trinity Church--Obama decided to ditch this place after being told by his campaign manager that he needed to win more than 37% of the bitter white vote.

Obama's Grandmother--A "typical white person" as described by Obama, whose racism is apparently only rivaled by Jeremiah Wright.

Tony Rezko--Corrupt slumlord who helped Obama out in Chicago.  Was convicted for fraud a few months ago.

Samantha Power--Foreign policy adviser until she Called Hillary a "monster" to the British press....

Austin Goolsbee--Involved in the "Canada affair" where Obama attempted to assure the Canadian government that he wasn't really serious about throwing them and NAFTA under the bus.

Small town America--Run over by the bus as Obama tried to flatter San Francisco millionaires at a fundraiser by showing that he too thinks they are a bunch of fools who cling to guns and religion.

Rob Malley--Obama advisor and Hamas friend who was flattered to receive their endorsement.

Hamas and Iran--Jointly thrown under the bus when Obama was trying to please AIPAC and get back some of the Jewish vote.

Wesley Clark--Made idiotic comments to a reporter in an attempt to diminish McCain's military service.

Jim Johnson--Countrywide guy involved in shady practices.  Was supposed to vet Obama's veep.

Colombia--Thrown under the bus on the orders of the AFL-CIO.  Obama had no choice in the matter.

MoveOn.org--Vaguely denounced in a speech on why Obama's not unpatriotic.

Mazen Asbahi--Lead Obama's outreach to Muslims until it was revealed that he could have ties to Hamas (see above).

Ludacris-- Called Hillary a b*tch in his new song about Obama.

Nancy Pelosi--Implicitly thrown under after Obama flip-flopped on drilling.

Bernie Mac--Made "inappropriate jokes" at an Obama fundraiser. Obama later tried to say that he was just kidding about throwing him under the bus.

Russia--Obama issued two platitutes about the need for peace in Georgia until his foreign policy advisers told him that he looked foolish.

PENDING

Bill Ayers and his wife--Unrepentent ex-terrorists who helped start Obama's career. 

John Edwards--He's lying through his teeth and the Obama people know it, even if Obama doesn't.

Michelle Obama--It may take a few more gaffes and might not happen this year but it is a ticking time bomb.

Undoubtedly some names are missing and the list will need to be updated from time to time. 

I haven't been paying close attention the past few days but it seems clear to me that Obama is trying to appeal to voter ignorance in order to win the energy debate.

--He said inflating tires properly would be the same as offshore drilling.

--He revived the discredited windfall profits tax (i.e. looting) plan that will actually hurt U.S. domestic production and consumers.

--He criticized McCain for taking money from oil companies even though he himself is doing the exact same thing.  Indeed, from oil giants like Exxon he has actually taken more.

--He also criticized him for wanting to give tax breaks to the oil companies.  That's a lie, and Obama voted with Bush to give special tax breaks to oil companies.  This attack is particularly notable since, it's sole purpose is to promote class hatred and resentment, not on economic or fiscal grounds, but rather on the idea that Big Oil needs to be punished because it was much more successful than the rest of us in its work.  Obama shows himself to be more interested in political demonization than promoting energy independence.

--He blames high gas prices on the oil companies (without evidence) which doesn't even logically make sense.  If the oil companies try to keep prices high, why were gas prices so low ten years ago?  Were they just being nicer then?

Any objective observer can see that Obama is peddling nonsense.  The question is: are voters objective observers?

Disturbingly, the McCain campaign has only responded to some of these ideas.  It should be running ads challenging Obama on each one.

So I guess Obama has at least partially flip-flopped on drilling.  Given his previously strong statements against it, we can not allow him to get away with it.

If, by some happy chance, someone with contacts to the RNC or the McCain campaign is reading this, here's some possibilities for new attack ads:

The annointed one, Barack Obama, proclaimed his opposition to offshore drilling

(play montage of Obama statements)

until he had a new revelation in Florida two days later...

(play new Obama comments)

Barack Obama: False Prophet, or shameless panderer?

OR

Barack Obama opposed offshore drilling

(play montage)

until he realized that the poll numbers didn't agree (show poll numbers)

(play comments)

Barack Obama: In touch with the polls. Out of touch with the American people.

OR

Barack Obama said offshore drilling would be bad for America

(play montage)

but then the citizen of the world changed his mind again

(play comments)

Barack Obama: Politics first. Country second. 

Or something like that.  I don't know if it is too "harsh" to run. 

Either way, he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it.  The only reason I wouldn't run it is if it obscures the fact that it is a partial flip-flop.  But the whole thing is pretty obscure already.

Hmm... maybe the polls really are BS:

--The current Gallup tracking poll shows Obama with an eight point lead among registered voters...

--While the USA Today/Gallup Poll (conducted on the same days) shows Obama with a three point lead among registered voters...

--And Obama losing to McCain by four points among likely voters...

The Gallup people are calling it "statistical noise".

What is that supposed to mean?

I guess I have to refine my previous statements. People who don't actually vote liked Obama's trip. People who do vote thought it was a dud or worse.

UPDATE: Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 among likely voters (down from 6), or back where he was beforehand. That still would indicate a dud trip.  

A follow up on my last entry:

Its over. Gallup reports that his lead has expanded to 9 points, meaning that the public has officially bought into his garbage. 

Even if this bounce is temporary it gives us the following clues about the media/public:

--They don't care that he arrogantly outlined his military policy before he even talked to the commanders.

--They don't care that he refused to admit that he was wrong about the surge in spite of blindingly obvious evidence to the contrary.

--They don't care that he lied about his commitee assignments in an effort to look tough on Iran.

--They don't care that he gave a speech devoid of anything other than vague generalities and pleas for more troops for Afghanistan that no one wants to give us.

--They don't care that he snubbed wounded troops and then lied about the reason he did so.

I'd say that any one of those incidents should have told the public that something was wrong about this guy. Instead, we get the opposite result.

I know I sound bitter. But if he can get away with this he can get away with anything.