HouseGuru's blog

The Justice department will announce criminal charges against Sen. Stevens.  Lets hope he resigns and Gov. Palin would fill this seat with a reform minded Republican so the Republicans could hold the seat in Nov.

This day is a good day for Conservatives everywhere.

I just got this email from a long shot candidate running for Congress in the 19th district in NY   Kieran Michael Lalor. It’s a great idea and I think that every republican runing should do it!
www.kml2008.com

Dear Friends & Supporters:

To focus on energy independence and reducing energy prices in the short and long term, we are gathering signatures for an independent ballot line called Energy Security Now!

We are very close to having the minimum number of signatures to get Energy Security Now! and its gas pump emblem on the ballot as a third line but we need to get thousands more than the minimum.  John Hall and his minions will pull out all the stops to prevent us from getting this line on the ballot because Hall doesn't want to give Hudson Valley voters an opportunity to make the election a referendum on energy policy.  

We need volunteers to help get Energy Security Now! petitions signed.

According to New York state election law, notaries and any registered voter in the district can sign and/or witness an independent nominating petition as long as they did not sign and/or witness a petition for the 19^th Congressional race during the initial petitioning period. 

We can get signatures from Republicans, Democrats and independents so the process is much easier than petitioning where we can only get the signatures of specific party members. 

Getting thousands of signatures above the minimum also helps get our message of Energy Security, Economic Security and National Security directly to voters.  Every person who signs our petition meets an enthusiastic volunteer and gets literature about our campaign and all of Hall's Hollywood and MoveOn.org money can't beat this kind of grassroots politics. 

This a pivotal moment for our country and its energy future and we must act comprehensively, decisively and boldly.  Getting Energy Security Now! on the ballot is the first step. 

Contact the campaign today to help get Energy Security Now! on the ballot.

All the best,

Kieran

I just wanted to make a quick point about Obama’s big speech in Berlin and how big the crowds are going to be.  The unemployment rate in Germany is at 7.5% or higher, people don’t work there so they have time to come out to Obama.

As I continue my updates on the House fundraising numbers its sad to say that numbers in some districts doesn’t seem good and with Obama planning( I don’t know if he could carry it out) a 50 state strategy this means that Democrats running in House seats will have an advantage of a staffer or two and in some districts even more. 

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I am trying to put together good news and bad news on the fundraising front. My opinion is that a candidate that is not being outspent 3 to1 and has the money to get his message out could still manage to win the election. And I strongly believe that this cycle will turn out in a lot of local races to be a referendum on drilling in the United States and the public is turning on the Democrats. One would hope that the Republicans could develop an effective message to turn the public against the Democrats not like the way it always goes that the Democrats still mange to turn everything against Republicans.

Numbers below the flip.

One of the big success stories of the last cycles for the Democrats was, the Second tier congressional candidates that actually won or came really close and they put those seats in play for this cycle and as we see that we have a really big playing field. Ram Emanuel was a master in picking second tier candidates and giving them some financial support and combing with the netroots raising money for these candidates some of them were a success story on Election Day.

One of my biggest surprises in 2006 was the defeat of Congresswoman Sue Kelly in NY 19. She was caught in the Mark Folly Scandal being in 2000 when some of Folly’s stuff happened the chairwoman of the page board and some were saying that wasn’t good in constituent service and the district has an orthodox Jewish block vote of around 3000 votes and she angered them off by not giving them the “ALL” the earmarks they wanted and the future speaker promised to “HELP” them more the Congresswoman Kelly did so they endorsed John Hall in the last minute and Hall won by about that much votes.

One of the upsides of second tier candidate is, that they are running really hard, they knock on doors, they attend every local event in the district and they do connect with the voters but they don’t have the money to reach out to enough voters to get to the top.

I wasn’t a big fan of Mike Huckabee in the presidential race but when he announced that he is forming a PAC and his main focus would be second tier candidates like he was in the presidential race (maybe that’s why he endorsed Don Young…) I thought it was a great idea because it would help keep those seats above the radar and as the democrats did in 06 some of them would be won and some of them would stay in the game for a better year for the GOP.

I will try to point out some of the races that are really long shots but I strongly believe that they are shots. One of the races I am following closely is NY 19 where the incumbent John Hall was going to face a strong challenge and most likely be defeated to Andrew Saul a millionaire that was ready to spend 10 million dollars on the race and with the court striking down the millionaires amendment Hall would have been crushed. But do to unknown reasons he dropped pout really early in the race and the GOP has not been able to recruit a well-known formidable candidate but they are stuck with Kieran Lalor, an Iraq war veteran who is the fonder of Iraq war veterans for congress a coalition of around 15 Iraq veterans who are running as Republicans for congress.

One of the issues he is focusing on is Drill here, Drill now and pay less. John Hall is a real lefty environmentalist he was one of the few NY congressman who voted against FISA and so on. So this Lalor started to put up billboards one his office how much the price of a gallon gas was when Hall was elected and promised lower gas prices as every Democrat promised it was around $2.50 or less, and what the price today after the democrats control congress for almost 2 years around $4.25 a gallon regular. The next day after putting up this big billboard on his campaign office he got in one of the big local newspapers a full page coverage that led to the billboard being vandalized and some more coverage in the local media.

Today he announced that he raised this quarter $140,000 he filed petitions with 6,200 signatures, a 1,000 more then the incumbent turned in. I do believe that there is an opportunity here and I would strongly urge you all out there looking to make a difference that this is a race worth investing if not for this cycle then for the 2010 cycle.

http://houseguru.blogspot.com/    http://kml2008.com/home.htm

Another important decision that was lost to the excitement of the pro gun community was the court striking down the “millionaire’s amendment”. The immediate affect that this will have on this election cycle is not to put aside. Remember the last year how the media was busy that the Republicans are recruiting self fonder who could spend their own money. The democrats were not that afraid because an opponent of a candidate that triggers the prevision (after giving himself 350K) could get unlimited coordinated party spending (the democrats have a huge advantage over republican in the House) and the amount they could raise is 3 times more then otherwise allowed the total they could raise comes to $13,800 from an individual and I don’t know how much from a PAC. Here is the most important part of it of the prevision that is that would hurt the opponent of a self fonder. The campaign finance low gives an amount to overall federal candidates (I think its $42,000) so rich people and special interest are reserving their money for their friends and for their allies on the Hill so when the playing field expands like a year like this to an unusually high number of seats you have to find new donors because of the amount that an individual could donate. But when a candidate triggers the prevision his opponent could go back to lets say a 200 donors that would otherwise donate to his/her campaign but reached their limit and ask not only $4600 but $13,800 and if they get it, it totals to over 2 ½ million dollars that is out of their reach now that the court has said that its unconstitutional. And minutes after the ruling came out I got emails from two candidates that are running against self fonders bragging that they now need money.   

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NY 13: The problem for NY republican continue, there self funded candidate Frank Powers died this morning unexpectedly.  NY Republicans find themselves again in a GOP held seat five months before the election without a candidate with the Democrats united although they still have a primary but the leadership is united behind one candidate.  What I don’t understand is, that Curtis Sliwa the outspoken talk show host and leader of the Guardian Angels is offering himself as a candidate but has the party loyalty not to announce a run and create a primary if the party bosses would nominate someone else. He is what republicans in the house need, he is a good communicator and is not afraid to speak his mind.  He has enough star power to make a good run in such a short time .I hope that the Brooklyn GOP would call on him to run and he would become the next representative of NY 13.

NJ 7 – This race is one of my favorite races and I am working on a longer post but do the primary there this Tuesday I have to touch on it a little. The two main candidates are State Senator Leonard Lance who was the leader of the republicans in the NJ state senate until they ousted him and Kate Whitman the daughter of the former NJ governor and EPA administrator. 

http://houseguru.blogspot.com/