John Smith's blog

Sarah Palin - tells a patently ridiculous story about the birth of her 5th child; and then simply cannot bring herself to admit she had, shall we be generous and say, embellished a wee bit. And so the story continues to follow her around and demonstrates to anyone who knows anything about human childbirth that she is a liar.

Sue Lowden - makes a rather stupid statement about bartering with your doctor, simply cannot bring herself to admit that she really meant "bargain with" or "negotiate with", and so the story continues to follow her around and probably, ultimately, cost her the nomination.

And now Jan Brewer, who is peddling a preposterous story about illegal immigrants beheading people in the desert and will not back down from it even when given an easy opportunity to do so.

I know it is tough to be a woman in politics - you have to be twice as good as the next man in order to just break even. But come on, ladies - telling baldfaced lies is not going to get you any votes, no matter how many times you double or triple down on them.

Learn a little something from Hilary Clinton and her "sniper fire" - when you make a mistake, admit it.

Pshaw, you say - why should we care about Hillary Clinton?

Well, how about this: she is the most popular major political figure in America.

Good news! The Labor Department reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls rose by a higher than expected 290,000 jobs last month - which is the largest gain in four years.

A total of 573,000 jobs have been added to the economy since the bottom in December of last year.

Only 66,000 of the new jobs were census jobs, meaning that 224,000 non-census jobs were created.

To put this into context, here is an illustration of the last 32 months of labor data:

How good are things? So good that 195,000 people re-entered the workforce, which caused the oddity of a big increase in the number of jobs but also an uptick in the unemployment rate of 0.2%.  Which will give the ilnumerate trolls something to fixate on.

I'm sure you will all join with me in celebrating our strong return to job creation - it is wonderful to see our great nation picking itself up and dusting itself off again.

UPDATE:

The Wall Street Journal provides from numerous professional economists. I reproduce them here in their entirety.

• Jobs grew by 290,000 in April with important improvements in a broad swath of sectors. Both the average workweek and aggregate hours rose. A recovery is in place and there is no double dip. –John Silvia, Wells Fargo

• The recovery has finally reached the labor market. Total and private payrolls rose in April at the fastest pace since May 2006. During the last four months, the US economy has created a total of 573,000 jobs, 483,000 of them in the private sector. Most of these job gains occurred in professional business services, education & health, leisure & hospitality and in manufacturing. In April, there was no sector that continued to cut back on employment on a large scale –Harm Bandholz, Unicredit

• This is a much better employment report than we expected. Census hiring continues to be fairly muted, making the headline employment readings even stronger than they otherwise would be. This raises the prospect that May census hiring, always assumed to be the strongest month, may be even stronger than we anticipated. However we must note that the return rate on mail in forms has been higher than expected which may reduce the number of employees the bureau will need to hide. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak

• The twist in this report is that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 9.7% to 9.9%. Recall that this metric comes not from the payrolls survey but rather from the household survey. It is thus possible for the two to contradict each other. However, there was less contradiction between the two reports than initially met the eye. Specifically, the household survey argued for an even better 550,000 job gain in April, but the number of people looking for jobs rose by an even larger 805,000. As such, the unemployment rate went up. However, the interpretation can be spun in a positive direction since job applicants must be feeling good to seek entry to the labour force in such large numbers. –Eric Lascelles, TD Securities

• While a peak in the unemployment rate is probably not too far away, the enormous number of those who left the labor market during the long downturn represent a potential for the rate to keep rising for some time as they sense that better employment opportunities now exist, re-enter the labor market, but don’t get re-employed right away, hence adding to the tally of the unemployed. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.

• Since rebounding from the February storms, private payrolls have risen by over 400,000 and appear to be accelerating, while total payrolls have advanced by more than half a million. The household survey shows even greater strength with household employment increasing by 374,000 per month on average over the last three months… Private job creation was the missing link of the recovery and it now appears to be coming on stream. –RDQ Economics

• This is a very encouraging report, supporting our call that businesses have responded, and will continue to respond, to the rebound in demand by ramping up employment growth. This, in turn, should support labor income and consumer spending, sustaining the broader economic recovery once the temporary factors of supportive policy and the turn in the inventory cycle fade. –Peter Newland, Barclays Capital

• Wages continue to decelerate as average hourly earnings were flat after a 0.1% decline leading the annual pace to slow to 1.6% from 1.7% in March and 2.0% in February. Given the still elevated slack in the labor market this trend is likely to continue. Overall, this is an encouraging report as is suggests the labor recovery is picking up steam.. –Julia Coronado, BNP Paribas

• The job market’s recent turn is the clearest indication yet the economic recovery is gaining traction, but financial market troubles are an unfriendly reminder that many hurdles remain. – Aaron Smith and Ryan Sweet, Moody’s Economy.com

• The April employment report was blow-out strong. In a different environment, this would be a gamechanger for the Fed, but it remains to be seen whether this will even move the needle for policymakers given their concerns about excessive disinflation as well as renewed market turmoil emanating from Europe. –Stephen Stanley, Pierpoint Securities

UPDATE #2

An important detail I neglected to mention in my OP: the number of new manufacturing jobs added in April - 44,000 - is the most since 1998.

Today is the best day our nation has had in four years.

Long may the trend continue.

What's this? The Wall Street Journal, owned by Rupert Murdoch, heaping more praise on Obama's economic management skills?

After the Crash, Auto Towns Get Back to Work

A year after the U.S. government swooped in to rescue two crippled auto giants, the car business is showing signs of life again—and so are local economies across the heartland that depend on it.

As soon as General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC finished racing into and out of bankruptcy court last fall, orders for headlamps and other car parts began streaming back to two factories here in this southern Illinois hamlet. The factories quickly re-hired about 400 of their 550 laid-off workers, giving Flora, Pop. 4,772, a big shot in the arm.

Local businesses are perking up. The Best Western just outside town occasionally fills all 41 of its rooms again. And shoppers are less scarce in Joe Etchison's appliance store. "Last year, people were sticking with the basics and skipping the stainless-steel refrigerators," he said, walking his downtown showroom trailed by Taz, his dog. People have "figured out the world has not ended."

Similar scenes are playing out across the Midwest, where the speedy stabilization of GM and Chrysler appears to have helped towns tied to the auto industry to get back on their feet more quickly than they may have otherwise.

 I will be the first to admit that things still suck - George Bush put us in a deep, deep hole and we still have a lot of work to do to climb out of it. However, are any of you able to man up and admit that Keynesian economics are actually an appropriate response to the demand-side crisis that we were facing?

In other news, the prelim GDP number was released this morning - here is an illustration of our economy over the last two years:

The Wall Street Journal is no friend to Democrats or the Obama Administration - its editorial page is essentially Fox News in print. Which is not surprising - Rupert Murdoch owns them both.

So, what is the deal with the hopey-changey message that is coming through loud and clear from the news portion of the operation?

Report Illustrates Economic Revival

The service sector grew for the third consecutive month in March, according to a report, the latest indicator that the economic recovery is broadening to more businesses and industries.

A gauge of pending home sales also ticked up.

The Institute for Supply Management, a group of corporate purchasing managers, on Monday said its gauge of economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew to 55.4 in March from 53 a month earlier. The index portrayed a broad-based recovery, with 14 of the 18 industries showing expansion. Two were flat and two contracted.

Any reading by the ISM Index over 50 shows growth and under that number indicates shrinkage.

and then this

Markets Approach Milestone Levels

Stock and bond markets flirted with milestones on Monday, as the outlook for economic growth brightened following a string of reports showing signs of a pickup in the labor market, service sector and housing.

Markets are marching partly to a drumbeat of improving economic news. Friday's jobs report showed tentative signs of employment growth. On Monday, reports showed a marked improvement in service-sector activity in March and an unexpected gain in pending home sales in February.

Treasury yields, which influence other credit costs like home mortgage interest rates, tend to rise when the economy is stronger.

For now, yields remain well below their level before the recession began in late 2007 and even further below their long-term historical average. That suggests the recent uptick may do little harm to housing or economy.

and even

Car Sales Sped Up in March

U.S. auto sales surged 24% in March to more than one million cars and light trucks, helped by a strengthening economy and hefty buyer incentives from most car makers.

Last month was only the third time since August 2008 that U.S. light-vehicle sales topped the one-million mark. Autodata said the annualized sales pace, a closely watched indicator, was 11.8 million vehicles, below analysts' estimates from earlier in the month and far off the 16 million or more typically seen before the economic downturn. Still, the rate was the highest since the government's "cash-for-clunkers" rebate program pumped up the selling pace last August to 14 million vehicles.

In another positive sign, some car makers said they were increasing production. GM said it will soon have at least five North American plants operating three shifts a day to boost output of popular models, such as the Cadillac SRX and Chevrolet Equinox crossovers. Toyota is considering making more of its Rav-4 crossover, whose sales more than doubled in March.

At Scott Clark Toyota in Charlotte, N.C., General Manager Chris Cady said better economic conditions are motivating buyers. "There are some people who have been on the sideline for really two years who are starting to get a comfort level," he said. "They are less concerned about the viability of their jobs."

They even went so far as to let someone push back against some crap dished out by - OMG - Grover Norquist! Although, to be fair, that was relegated to a blog - there are, of course, limits to how far one can go in pursuit of reason....

Sarah Palin has invited us all to reflect upon the question "So how is that hopey-changey thing working out?" I've decided to take her up on it.

The Obama Administration inherited an economy in free-fall. Need a reminder? Here are the quarterly GDP numbers that the Bush Administration left us with:

• Q1 08 -0.7%
• Q2 08 1.5%
• Q3 08 -2.7%
• Q4 08 -5.4%
• Q1 09 -6.4%

Now, here are the GDP numbers for the first three full quarters after Obama came to office:

• Q2 09 -0.7%
• Q3 09 2.2%
• Q4 09 5.6%

Unemployment is still far too high, but then again, unemployment is a lagging indicator. It is going to take a long time to fix the hole that the Bush Administration blew. The necessary first step is to get the economy going again, and then jobs will follow. And things are improving. From today's Wall Street Journal:

U.S. factory operators saw their best month of activity in nearly six years during March. The Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday that its index of manufacturing activity for March moved to a reading of 59.6, from 56.5 the month before and 58.4 in January. March's level was above the 57.0 economists had expected to see, and it was the highest reading since July 2004. Readings over 50 indicate growth.

So, economic catastrophe averted.

The Obama Administration inherited an banking system in crisis and a financial system on the verge of total collaps. Need a reminder? From May 08 to October 08 the Dow dropped from 13,000 to 8,500. three of the largest U.S. investment banks either went bankrupt (Lehman) or were sold at fire sale prices to other banks (Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch).

Since Obama's innaguration, the Dow has risen from 7,800 to 10,900.

Moreover, the banking system is sufficiently stable that the government is going to sell the stake they took in Citi to keep it from failing like the other three for a profit of $7 to $8 billion dollars.

So, financial system pulled back from the brink.

Deaths of coalition forces in George Bush's needless war in Iraq dropped from 322 in 08 to 150 in 09.

Progress is finally made in out necessary war in Afghanistan, with a major offensive against the Taliban in Kandahar to start in June. The AP reported earlier this week that the Canadians just pushed into a key region for protecting that offensive to find that the locals had already chased out the Taliban themselves, denying the enemy a key forward operating area.

So, withdrawing from pointless war of choice and successfully (thus far, at least) pursuing a war of necessity.

Looks like hopey changey has gone 3 for 3.

What an odd Armaggedon this is. According to all of you on Sunday night the United States was subjected to a hostile socialist coup and an industry comprising 1/6th of the nation's economy was dealt a fatal blow, and America as we know it has come to an end.

And then today I read on the WSJ that:

Dow Industrials Hit 18-Month High

How odd.

So I call up the NASDAQ chart. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?mod=mdc_h_dtabnk&symb=$COMPQ 

It is at a 52 week high.

As is the S&P 500. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?mod=mdc_h_dtabnk&symb=SPX

How very odd. Doesn't Wall Street know that the country was de-stroyed on Sunday?

UPDATE:

52 week highs yesterday for the Dow, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.

It is almost as if Wall Street doesn't believe that this bill is a disaster for the American economy.

Scott Brown is most famous for posing nude in Cosmo. You'd think that is embarrassing enough, but now he has created new picture problems for himself, by being disingenuous with reporters.

Audio:

QUESTION: “Scott, what do you think about the Tea Party movement and what they are trying to do?”

SCOTT BROWN: “I am not quite sure what you are talking about, what are they trying to do?”

QUESTION: “The anti-smaller government, sort of anti-establishment organization that is trying to take over the country.”

SCOTT BROWN: “Taking over the country. I think that is a little bit of an exaggeration.”

QUESTION: “Well, they are all over the place and they are trying to take down moderate Republicans. . .”

SCOTT BROWN: “All I know is that. . . “

QUESTION: “Are you completely unaware of that organization?”

SCOTT BROWN: “I’m not quite sure what you are referring to.

Oh dear. He wants your money but he doesn't want your teabags.

TPM has found, on Brown's official campaign sites:

• Photo from September 8th, 2009 titled "Sen. Brown addressing the Worcester Tea Party."
• Photo from September 8th, 2009 titled "Sen. Brown addressing the Lowell Tea Party."
• An invitation to meet Scott Brown at a Tea Party fundraiser for his campaign.

They also found a YouTube video of Brown giving a speech in front of a great big tea party sign. Did he just wander onto that stage and start talking without knowing where he was?

Dishonest and clueless. Wants to take the tea party money while simultaneously pretending they don't exist.

So much for the Tea Party rhetoric that the "principles" they espouse are the ones that the majority of Americans support.

Coakley by ten.

The stimulus worked - even the American Enterprise Institute is forced to admit it.

We can expect 2010 to be a volatile year. This likelihood is underscored by looking back at 2008 and 2009. Two thousand eight was a highly volatile year leading up to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, which was followed by the risk of a total systemic meltdown. That sharp and obvious risk spike prompted massive policy responses that were simply the largest that central banks, with rate cuts and liquidity provision, and governments, with tax cuts and spending increases, could manage. The result--beginning in March 2009--was a linear rise in the prices of risky assets, the result of massive relief once the slip into a global depression had been averted and the acute phase of the crisis in the financial sector had passed.

This is going to be a campaign issue in 2010 - the doctrinal rigidity of the DeMints of the world vs. the pragmatism of the Obama Administration - which scored a major success in preventing the total meltdown of our economy.

Since it is obvious that this site is dead and will have its plug pulled any moment now to spare its owners further embarrassment, I offer this news as a farewell gift.

In the latest issue of National Review, Jay Nordlinger details the history of 'teabagging' and reports on the conservative debate about this epic brand-fail. He proves an important point - you people chose it:

The first big day for this movement was Tax Day, April 15. And organizers had a gimmick. They asked people to send a tea bag to the Oval Office. One of the exhortations was "Tea Bag the Fools in D.C." A protester was spotted with a sign saying, "Tea Bag the Liberal Dems Before They Tea Bag You." So, conservatives started it: started with this terminology.

From today's WSJ online - looks like unemployment is going to go the way of the Dow and GDP as the Republican's preferred all-important metric:

U.S. job losses slowed sharply in November and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, in a sign the labor market is finally starting to heal as the economy recovers.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by just 11,000 last month, slowing down from a downwardly revised 111,000 drop seen in October, as the recovery encouraged companies to retain workers, the Labor Department said Friday.

It was the best showing since December 2007, when payrolls rose by 120,000, said a Labor department official. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a payroll decrease of 125,000.

Spluttering and cherry-picking of detail and pretending that these statistics, which were authoritative a month ago, don't really mean anything below, please.