Kristen Soltis's blog

Saturday's print edition of The Orlando Sentinel featured an AP article with the headline "Stuck on gas, Congress heads home".   At the very end of the article, a whole two sentences were devoted to late Friday's Republican protest on the floor of the house over failure to handle important energy legislation.   Two sentences.  A swing voter in Congressman Tom Feeney's district may not even make it that far in the story, seeing only a headline that Congress has -yet again- done nothing.    

Yet in Washington, the feeling is different.  The Twitterers among us (myself included) are giddy like Chris Matthews at an Obama rally, thrilled that technology was able to give word of the revolution to the masses.  Members of Congress connected directly with "followers".   Drudge made it his top headline.  The whole affair has been given the tag "#dontgo" on Twitter, drawing on the way in which conferences and major events get referenced using the micro-blogging site.  For us political junkies who have watched too much West Wing, the idea of a Congress gone rogue in defense of the American people is too romantic, too fantastic not to spend the weekend gabbing about.

So, then, the question arises - to what extent is "#dontgo" actually going to move voters?  If Congressional Republicans do something exciting and important but nobody really knows about it, does it matter? (If a tree falls in a forest, and all that jazz.)

My answer is an emphatic "yes".

[Promoted - Kristen Soltis makes good points about something very important to the resurgence of the Right: criticisms and policies aren't enough - we need a to tell a compelling story about the future we envision - Jon Henke]

As Republicans, we are faced with the unfortunate reality that our ideas frequently lack the easy, fuzzy and warm narrative that Democrats can offer.  In his recent Doublethink Online piece, Conor Friedersdorf brings up the example of rent control - while liberal policies may actually make things worse for poor families, the pro-rent control narrative is easier to tell.

A talented reporter, given enough time and space, could craft a narrative that illustrates how rent control ultimately makes poor families worse off. His job is relatively difficult, however, for he can hardly write a pithy anecdotal lead about the hundred families that won’t occupy a non-existent apartment building because a foolish policy eliminated an unknown developer’s incentive to build it.

Unfortunately for us, in addition to the head start the left has in crafting an attractive story, the word "Republican" now has it's own set of drawbacks.  In his column today, David Brooks discusses research conducted by my firm, The Winston Group, about the impact of the Republican label on our policies.

Promoted. -Patrick

Now that Obama has almost certainly tied up the Democratic nomination, analysts and number-crunchers have already begun taking a look at what the map would look like if the election were held today.   Two prominent sources for political data and analysis - RealClearPolitics and the Evans-Novak Political Report - have maps indicating what the landscape looks like.  While the RCP model is mathematical and computer-generated (it takes the statewide head-to-head polls, plugs them into a map and paints by numbers), the Evans-Novak map analyzes trends and demographics in states to make predictions.

RCP's current electoral map, as of this afternoon, has Barack Obama with 228 electoral votes, John McCain with 190, and another 120 listed as "toss-up".   What should give McCain supporters something happy to read from this is the "solid" versus "leaning" breakdown.  Of Obama's 228 electors, RCP only lists 60 as "solid" with 168 as "leaning".  McCain, however, has 96 "solid" to 94 "leaning".

(We're pleased to welcome to these pages Kristen Soltis, director of policy research at the Winston Group, a Republican polling firm. -Patrick)

With Senator Obama claiming a majority of pledged delegates and an increasing number of superdelegates, it appears that Senator Obama's path to the Democratic nomination is clear; his nomination almost a foregone conclusion. (Just ask Tim Russert!)

But polling data is a fun thing, and this morning's two newest national polls show Obama slightly behind McCain or running even with him, while Hillary Clinton is ahead of McCain in both polls. 

The Gallup five-day running average from their tracking shows McCain ahead of Obama, 47-44.  Yet in a head to head with Clinton, McCain loses by three, 45-48.  Take a look at the trending throughout May - Obama and McCain swap in and out of the top spot with each other four times in this one month alone, while Clinton never once gives McCain the edge.