Pass it On

One reason why I suspect you won't see much panic from the White House over sinking poll numbers is that there are people there who remember the first two years of Ronald Reagan.  When he was sworn in, his poll numbers were in the high 60's, the Dow was around 1,000, and unemployment was at 7.5%.  Within two years the Dow was at 750, unemployment was over 10%, and his approval number was somewhere just south of 40%.  The Democrats were convinced we would be saying "President John Glenn" in January, 1985.  (Remember him?  Right Stuff, Wrong Staff.)

Of course, it didn't quite work out that way.  By 1984 the economy was clearly booming, and as I recall Reagan ended up with 60% of the vote.  So waiting for polls to creep is definitely not a good idea.

But then there's the issue of the defintion of the base.  In 1980, Reagan won 55% of the white vote.  in 2008, McCain won 55% of the white vote.  If you go right down the line, white, black, hispanic, men, women, you'll see that McCain and Reagan (in 1980) had similar numbers.  But the goal posts have moved.  Reagan won.  McCain lost.

Men used to be 52% of the vote.  Now they are down to 47%.  Whites used to be 88% of the vote, now they are 74%.  In fact, in 1980, white men were 46% of the vote, now they are down to 34% of the vote.  So if the traditional Conservative base is viewed as white males, the party isn't exactly serving a growing market.

The growth?  Black Americans have increased their percentage of the vote from 10% to 13%.  That might not seem like much, but in an era where Republicans just don't care to reach out that means the whole block is voting for the Democrats.  That changes a 52% victory into a 49% defeat.  (It should be noted that this is a recent event - in 1960 Richard Nixon got 40% of the black vote).  Similarly, the Hispanic vote has exploded (and will continue to grow, and there isn't a lot of Republican reaching out there, either.  George W. Bush tried, but he was mugged by his own people.  The future portents are even less encouraging.  The under-30 vote was 60%+ for the Democrats last year.  Hispanics will be 20% of the vote in 2020.

Reach for the base?  Maybe.  The name of thie site is "The Next Right", not "The Old Right".  In order to keep up with the future American voter, Republicans will need to redefine just what the base is.

I have to agree with adude.  As he stated above, if the GOP really wants to recapture the hearts and minds of America, they ahve to watch what it is that they are pushing, otherwise no one will be willing to listen to them.  I personally, have been severely disillusioned with the GOP for some time now, and I would far prefer to vote that way than be forced to either not vote or vote Democrat - although I beleve I will be registering Libertarian before the next election  - and it seems a big part of the Republican agenda is just as favoring of statism as Democrats, but instead of a more socially beneficent agenda, the GOP's vision for America, at least over the last decade thanks to that vicious cabal of Neocons that occupies Washington - thank God we got rid of their avatar who made things infinitely worse than better (I mean Bush) - seems to be that they want Christianity enforced on everyone, despite a clear Constitutional mandate explicitly NOT to do so.  (That would be the Establishment clause, and one of the freedoms we are supposed to enjoy is the freedom from tyranny, be it legal tyranny or religious tyranny, and the Framers, who the religious right love to claim as their own, understood that State and Church are supposed to be kept away from each other.)

Furthermore, the economic agenda of the Republican Party seems to have been one where business interests trump all others, and it doesn't matter what laws are broken - theft, rape, murder, environmental crimes - if it's a large enough corporation to make campaign contribututions, whatever they do is just fine.  I can certainly not advocate for a redistrubtion of wealth, but I certainly can't say that I advocate a party that thinks it's just fine that the average worker to executive pay ration is 3 to 400 to 1, and that's on the lower end.  (It's a tenth of that in other industrialized countries.) 

As to the health care issue, a public health care plan, although a completely understandable impulse, and quite frankly at this point almost seems as though we're backwater not to have one, may not be the answer, and the private sector should be given the space in order to cut costs, and restructure so that said discounts are passed on to consumers.  At a certain point, we must admit that financial interests have been given preference over medical issues, which is not a good idea, period.  And we, as a nation, certainly shouldn't take our cues about what to do about health care from Conservatives for Patients Rights and it's ringleader, Rick Scott.  By the way, he's the guy behind a lot of the town hall protests, and isn't now, nor has he ever been, a doctor.  But he HAS been at the helm of a company that had to pay over a billion dollars in restitution for defrauding Medicare!  (Part of personal responsibility is adhering to Law and Order, and it seems that when it comes to street crime, the GOP is just fine with it when that street is Wall.)

Obama's stimuli are going to be part of the bankrupting of this country, no doubt about it.  But we also cannot afford to keep acting as the world's police force.  In fact, it has only gotten us deeper into trouble.  Vietnam is part of what got us off the gold standard (inflation rose as a result of the war, and in order to combat it, Nixon took us off the GS - SS and Medicare/Medicaid played a part, but not as large) and the BULK, far and away, of our national debt was created through defense spending projects, and the prime mover in the creation of that debt, the biggest repeat offender in the creation of that debt was unfortunately for those that don't like their fantasies getting interrupted by the fact of the historical record, Ronald Reagan.  The GOP needs a new vision, a complete rewrite, and this current crop are NOT going to cut it.