2010 Governors

Governor's races are odd birds.  Of all the races I follow -- House, Senate, Presidential, even state legislative -- they tend to be the least partisan.  The reasons are similar to the reasons that Presidential races often seem so issues-less, especially when compared to the legislative races:  People don't look at their chief executive and see a bundle of issues; they see a leader.  This is more pronounced at the local and state level, where they just see someone who fixes potholes and makes sure their kid gets funding for afterschool football.

On top of this, these races are going to be very much subject to the performance of the economy over the next few years.  In 2002, Democrats and Republicans alike suffered as chief executives were forced to make cuts in state budgets during the 2000-2001 semi-recession.  Given the full-blown recession/semi-depression we are likely headed towards, there could be a similar effect.  Sarah Palin is still very popular in Alaska, but after she cuts education to keep the budget in balance, will she still be?

So anyway, theses are very preliminary.  Right now if I had to guess, I'd say Republicans would net one or two Governor's mansions, bringing them to 23 or 24 seats.  I've bolded the ones that I think seem especially primed to change hands. 

Given the large number of open seats and undeclared candidates, I'm even less certain about these than the Senate ratings (which is pretty darned uncertain).  This is especially true of open races that I've labelled uncompetitive, since really no one can call an open Governor's race uncompetitive this early.  But just watch me.  Because I'm dangerous like that.

More below the fold.