2010 Governors

I spoke with Tom Campbell for over 45 minutes on a range of topics, and I’ve split my posts on that discussion into two posts, one here and one over at QandO. Here at The Next Right, I’m going to cover new media, elections, and the politics of enacting fiscal-conservative governance for a state like California. Over at QandO the topics have more to do with policy.

Tom Campbell isn’t your typical candidate.

Pitted against two Republican candidates with far less experience but much greater personal wealth, he’s opted to reach out directly to voters with new media, doing substantial blogging himself and even personally answering hundreds of questions about the gritty details of policy in the comment sections of his campaign website.

Going against the grain, he’s pushed to be far more specific about necessary painful budget cuts than his fellow Republicans. Still he appeals to demographics that have tilted Democrat – Northern Californians and young people – giving him a polling advantage over his fellow Republicans in a general election matchup.

Campbell isn’t some upstart: he has extensive experience in politics and government, having been elected to Congress five times starting in the late ’80s and having ran against Dianne Feinstein in 2000. He seems to be a contender in the race. So I was interested to hear his take on how things have changed and how he might translate electoral victory into governing power.

Governor's races are odd birds.  Of all the races I follow -- House, Senate, Presidential, even state legislative -- they tend to be the least partisan.  The reasons are similar to the reasons that Presidential races often seem so issues-less, especially when compared to the legislative races:  People don't look at their chief executive and see a bundle of issues; they see a leader.  This is more pronounced at the local and state level, where they just see someone who fixes potholes and makes sure their kid gets funding for afterschool football.

On top of this, these races are going to be very much subject to the performance of the economy over the next few years.  In 2002, Democrats and Republicans alike suffered as chief executives were forced to make cuts in state budgets during the 2000-2001 semi-recession.  Given the full-blown recession/semi-depression we are likely headed towards, there could be a similar effect.  Sarah Palin is still very popular in Alaska, but after she cuts education to keep the budget in balance, will she still be?

So anyway, theses are very preliminary.  Right now if I had to guess, I'd say Republicans would net one or two Governor's mansions, bringing them to 23 or 24 seats.  I've bolded the ones that I think seem especially primed to change hands. 

Given the large number of open seats and undeclared candidates, I'm even less certain about these than the Senate ratings (which is pretty darned uncertain).  This is especially true of open races that I've labelled uncompetitive, since really no one can call an open Governor's race uncompetitive this early.  But just watch me.  Because I'm dangerous like that.

More below the fold.