2010 senate elections

92 year old West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd is "seriously ill".

Though I wouldn't bet a confederate dollar on the issue, it is indeed possible that there will be a senate vacancy in West Virginia prior to the next scheduled general election.

Section 4-7 of the West Virginia Constitution calls for an appointed successor to hold office until the next general election.  So there may be some pressure for the old Kleagle to do "weekend at Bernie's" and avoid expiration until after the November election.

In the event the Senator does pass to his eternal reward this will be a monumental headache for the Democrats.  The Cook PVI places West Virginia as presently R + 8. While the state is historically Democratic and has a huge Democrat edge in partisan registration, the last three Democratic presidential candidates were defeated handily. And in a Democratic primary in the 1st district, an Obamacare/Stimulus supporting incumbent was trounced by a challenger who claims not to support Nancy Pelosi.  

And now that Rahm Emanuel's old benefactors are "botched petroleum" the Democratic base is eager to adopt "climate change" legislation against the oil and coal industry; which is going to go over in WV like a lead balloon.

So we have a great opportunity, but we may be forced to get this race up and running in very short order. Thankfully, there is one plausible Republican statewide candidate, Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito.   Capito has represented the 2nd District, including the state capitol of Charleston, for the past decade. Capito does appear to be a bit of an "establishment Republican" supported by banks et al,  but this may not be a circumstance where an outsider has the luxury to slowly build a grassroots movement capable of offsetting the tsunami of Democrat cash they will throw at some union backed hack.  Unfortunately even Capito is only holding about $500K cash on hand, but she's been a proficient fundraiser in the past in a state with cheap media markets.

In any event, we now may be given an opportunity we cannot waste and must seize. With Dino Rossi's recent entry in the Washington state senate race the chance that the Republicans could actualy elect 50 senators in the next session has gone from impossible to  merely difficult. Now this seat could open the door wide open.  

IN Democrat Brad Ellsworth, an ostensibly "conservative" Blue Dog Democrat, opposed the health care bill in November.

Sunday, he was one of the handful of Democrats who switched their vote to yes, providing the decisive margin for passage.

Why?

Money talks

Sen. Evan Bayh (D) announced today that he has contributed $1M of his campaign cash to help Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) succeed him in the Senate. The reward comes just a couple of days after Ellsworth suddenly and unexpectedly announced that he was voting "yes" on the Senate bill.  

I've seen Ellsworth running web ads suggesting we need to elect a "sheriff to the senate" (he had been Sheriff in Evansville before going Washington). Maybe it's time the IN AG, or hmmm. some sheriff, convene a grand jury and depose some witnesses to find out if the old Sheriff is now on the take? It's been atributed to a NH waitress that if the health care bill was any good, people didn;t need to be bribed to vote for it. We've found this bribe. I'm sure there's more where this came from.  And Evan, that's your reputationfor rectititude you smell burning about now 

By now, most folks have heard the word that New Jersey's 86 year old Democratic Senator, Frank Lautenberg, has stomach cancer.

His camp insists this cancer is curable. I certainly wish the Senator all the best. Nonetheless, if I were going to AC to wager, my money would be that Senator Lautenberg will physically be unable to complete his term of office which expires in 2014.

The New Jersey Democrats were unable to change the succession law prior to Jon Corzine's involuntary departure from office, which means that the appointment power for any U.S. Senate vacancy rests with Republican Governor Chris Christie until at the earliest, January 2014.

The replacement would face the voters at the next scheduled November election.  So, who should Governor Christie choose?

One school of thought would be to choose someone who's already run statewide and come up short. While conservative champion Bret Schundler fits that bill, it would also put lots of less vocal people like Doug Forrester, Bob Franks, and Dick Zimmer in the mix.  Tom Kean Jr. might be interested, but his service in the legislature would be lost.  Moreover, nominating a former politico to this post might yield someone who's electoral prospects were suboptimal in these "throw the bums" out  era.     

New Jersey is well known for electing a former athlete to the U.S. Senate. But there's an even more popular name out there who could fill a vacant Senate seat.

Phil Simms is an icon to New Jersey residents, having led the Giants to their first Super Bowl title in 1987. This was the first world championship I believe any NJ professional sports team had won.  He's lived in New Jersey continuously since his rookie days with the Giants in the late 1970's. So he's going to have huge name recognition ( which is hard to come by in an expensive decentralized state like NJ) and a lot of residual good will, especially among suburban men over 40.

But even more important is that Simms is one of CBS TV's top sports announcers.  He has the presence and communication skills that are going to separate him from the usual political novice.    

And fear not, Simms's is pretty conservative in his beliefs and portrays a very straight laced image in his broadcasting. He's a classy guy, but a no-nonsense guy.  Someone who I think "fits" the Jersey mindset pretty well.

The Republican party has done  pretty well running quarterbacks for high office  

but Jack never went to Disney World.

You heard it here first. Phil Simms will be the next U.S. Senator from New Jersey. The more I think about it, who else makes anywhere as much sense for this post? 

Ever since the epic FAIL of the Copenhagen climate conference, even the MSM has caught on there's something rotten in the state of climate science.

CT Democratic Senate candidate Dick Blumenthal hasn't gotten the memo. Here's his Wikipedia entry on the topic.

Blumenthal has been a vocal advocate of the position that human activity is responsible for rising global temperatures and that prompt action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be taken. He has urged the Environmental Protection Agency to declare carbon dioxide as a dangerous air pollutant. "I urge the new Obama EPA to declare carbon dioxide a danger to human health and welfare so we can at last begin addressing the potentially disastrous threat global warming poses to health, the environment and our economy. We must make up for lost time before it's too late to curb dangerous warming threatening to devastate the planet and human society." [20] He has brought suit against a number of electric utilities in the Midwest, arguing that coal burning power plants are generating excess CO2 emissions. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals recently agreed to allow Blumenthal's lawsuit to proceed.[21] Blumenthal personally has stated "no reputable climate scientist disputes the reality of global warming. It is fact, plain and simple. Dithering will be disastrous." 

I'd comment further, but I have 10'' of "global warming" to clear off my truck.

Scott Brown was an obscure suburban lawyer/legislator.

Carly Fiorina was the former CEO of one of America's top corporations.

These ads--direct and authentic--are why Brown is getting sworn into the U.S. Senate tomorrow. Voters get a clear , unfiltered sense of what Brown's message is 

This art house web ad, is why Fiorina probably won't get to the Senate. To the extent it conveys useful information about her opponent, it's lost in bizarre metaphors.

This is part of the reason not to recruit self-funders; they seem enamored of expensive creativity that just doesn't work, like this nonsense from Ned Lamont in 2006.

We need a lot more Wrentham in our 2010 campaigns and a whole lot less Hollywood.

 Coakley concedes race to Brown

I have to admit, what I posted sure sounds good about now.

Now back to sipping my Sam Adams Boston Lager!

In a move that is oddly fitting for a President who failed to interrupt his Hawaiian vacation to respond to a terrorist attack, Barack Obama is heading to Massachusetts to assist his base of union and community organizers.

"Obama is headed to Massachusetts Sunday to campaign for Democrat Martha Coakley, whose race against Republican Scott Brown has narrowed to a toss-up as voters zero in on the cost of a massive health insurance bill in Congress."

As the left struggles to maintain “Ted Kennedy's Seat” the cracks are beginning to show in a radical agenda many believe was crafted by leaders at groups like the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. As Brown supporters eye the state warily, ACORN has largely gone underground in Massachusetts. Beginning in the 1970's ACORN has operated silently in states across the country conducting "progressive experiments" in liberal states like Massachusetts through the use of organizing around ballot initiatives.

Allamon of The Allamon Cartoon Blog

Lisa Ranghelli, a Massachusetts native, authored a report entitled ACORN Wins: The Monetary Impact of ACORN Campaigns A Ten Year Retrospective, 1995-2004. Ranghelli's report listed several ACORN legislative agenda items like predatory lending laws and minimum wage increases “tested” in Massachusetts shortly before a nationwide campaign:

“Categorized by issue area, these totals encompass the estimated monetary benefits of some of ACORN’s major campaigns between 1995 and 2004, including:

• Passage of 11 living wage ordinances, and minimum wage increases in Illinois, Massachusetts, Florida, New York, and the City of San Francisco.
• Legislation limiting predatory lending in Massachusetts, New Mexico, California, New York and New Jersey, and improvements in federal regulations.

…STATE EITC INCREASES

Finally, ACORN has successfully increased the earnings of low-wage workers by allowing them to keep more of what they make. In Massachusetts, ACORN led a coalition that won an increase in the state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) in 1999, from 10 percent of the federal credit to 15 percent, or a 50 percent increase. According to the State Department of Revenue, close to $21 million additional dollars went into the pockets of low-income taxpayers annually after the increase was implemented.”

After the disastrous defeat of HillaryCare in the 1990's, liberals began to operate under the idea that “all politics are local” and both before and after Ted Kennedy facilitated ACORN's leftist agendas that were precursors to ObamaCare. In a 2006 report ACORN details its next steps after assisting Democrats with “taking back Congress:

ACORN Legislative Agenda for 2007 Working Families Agenda

Minimum Wage – Soon after the new Congress gets to work in January, both the House and the Senate are expected to move bills to increase the minimum wage to $7.25 an hours in three steps by 2009. While almost everyone believes this will pass (and Bush has indicated he will sign an increase), the fight will be over getting a clean bill – without poison pill amendments such as small business tax breaks or “protection” of small business from health insurance costs (read: higher premiums and insurance cut offs for our members). ACORN will take a leadership role in both raising the profile of the issue with our friends in Congress in select Congressional Districts in Dec and Jan – AND targeting some moderate Republicans and weak Dems who are more likely to go along with the poison pills.

Soon after we get the $7.25, Sen. Kennedy will introduce a more ambitious bill to restore the value of the minimum wage to its historic levels (more like $9.00/hr.) AND index it to inflation. We’ll likely have to fight for this bill for many years, and it is not likely to be a very big priority in year one, 2007.

Paid Sick Days – ACORN intends to make the fight for paid sick day a big one in 2007. To supplement our city and state campaigns on this issue, we will push for the Healthy Families Act (introduced by Sen. Kennedy and Rep. DeLauro), which would require employers to provide 7 paid sick days a year.

Kennedy's unequivocal support led to ACORN attempting to establish its now embattled Working Families Party in Massachusetts:

“The Working Families Party in New York and Connecticut continued to establish themselves shrewdly as political forces. The ballot project in Massachusetts to advance election opportunities (read fusion) made it to the ballot, which was never easy, but unfortunately could not overcome some of its negatives, so lost decidedly by a woeful margin, even in the trenches of liberalism. This will be something that we will have to answer in the future.”

As speculations of desperation regarding ObamaCare swarm around the Internet, see Hot Air, for example,  ACORN has continued working silently through partners like Emily's List and America Votes. The ACORN agenda became the cornerstone of the Obama campaign and then presidency, with Obama and Democrats fiercely protecting ACORN along the way.

“In 2007, for the first time in 12 years, we will be working with a Democratic controlled Congress. Without being overly optimistic (after all, it takes 60 votes to pass anything controversial in the Senate, and Bush is still President), we are developing an ambitious agenda of programs and priorities that we will be pushing for. In particular, we will be paying attention to how our allies in Congress can assist us in our campaign work by holding hearings and otherwise shining a spotlight on our issues and targets – something that only the majority party can do.

Furthermore, we are working to make sure that key leaders in Congress fully understand the role that ACORN played in the 2006 elections: we are working collaboratively with the political department to ensure that the impact of our political work is widely known and appreciated.

 

Legislative priorities will include:

ACORN Working Families Agenda, including an increase in the minimum wage, paid sick days, expanded EITC, and Childcare assistance.

Immigration reform, which may actually move early next year.

Legislation outlawing predatory lending practices (as opposed to just stopping bad pre-emptive legislation).

Additional funding for housing counseling, and a separate pool of funding for delinquency/foreclosure counseling and outreach.

A housing trust fund – which will make funding available for our development program.

Possible legislation on RALs, payday lending, and other predatory financial practices, as well as support for our VITA and benefit access centers.

Election reform, on voting machines, voter registration issues, etc...

As Coakley continues to make mistakes that would cripple anyone on the right, her status as an empty suit for the “Kennedy Seat” has almost reached satirical proportions. What ACORN and the Democrats did not count on was the same qualities that first made Kennedy appealing to voters are being exhibited by Brown. Brown's supporters see him as a wild card, someone who is going to shake things up and listen to the people. Hopefully Ted Kennedy would be proud.

Martha Coakley is so hard up she needs to bring Democrats in from other states to campaign in Massachusetts. Evidently the vaunted machine there has blown a gasket.

I'm John Spears, OFA's state director here in Massachusetts. I don't normally write to you, but I'm reaching out today because we urgently need help from folks like you, who live in neighboring states.In just 7 days, folks here will vote in a special election to pick their next senator. The race is coming down to the wire, and we have to do everything we can to ensure that progressive champion Martha Coakley wins.Unless we all join together in this moment, Ted Kennedy's Senate seat could fall into the hands of Scott Brown, Martha's opponent and a right-wing reactionary who has sworn to defeat health insurance reform -- the late Senator's life's work.But with this special election happening at an unusual time, many voters don't know where or when to vote, and some don't yet realize an election is happening at all.OFA Massachusetts volunteers are going door to door, talking to voters and making sure they know how critical the outcome of their decision will be next Tuesday. But with so little time remaining, we need folks like you from neighboring states to come to Massachusetts and join the campaign. We've set up canvasses across the state. Can you join us in the final days to help elect Martha Coakley? 

 The late Tip O'Neill once said "All politics is local". In his heyday, the Democrats send campaigners to other states; they never needed outside help to take care of their own business.

Sadly, Tip is probably rotating in his grave about now.

My word. This woman was the best qualified person the Massachusetts Democrats could find to represent the Commonwealth? 

If the goal was and the vision in Afghanistan was to go in because we believe the Taliban was giving harbor to terrorists, we supported them, I supported that goal. They are gone, They are not there anymore, they are in Yemen and Pakistan.  Lets focus our efforts on where Al Qaeda is."

Perhaps I shouldn;t be surprised at this utterly ignorant statement. After all this is the woman who said her foreign policy qualfications involved a sister who lived overseas,

Maybe I'll check Google Maps to ascertain if one can see Kandahar looking out of a window in Medford. 

Thankfully, the voters have the chance to elect someone with a bit more expertise in national security issues,

As for the specifics of this incredibly bizarre answer,perhaps Captain Sklaver can refute this argument in absentia.  

The Worcester Telegram, the daily newspaper in MA's 2nd largest city, has endorsed Scott Brown

Given the serious issues that face our nation, and the deep ideological divides that have riven Congress, we believe that state Sen. Scott Brown is the best choice to reinvigorate Massachusetts' voice on Capitol Hill....

Just to prove they are not some NewsCorp outfit, they are owned by the NY Times Corp. and previously endorsed both Barack Obama and John Kerry.

I'm sure this can and will be as easily dismissed as polling results , a deluge of absentee ballots in conservative parts of the Commonwealth, and a run on Scott Brown campaign signs.

I know that the Republicans are supposed to just roll over in the Blue States for politically correct lefties. I apologize if this script is not being followed this time out.