2012 Presidential Election

A Fresh Wind Blows.

It cannot begin to dispel the immense stench of the rotting carcass that is Barack Obama’s government and Congress… but it’s a start, a bare start, or more correctly, a starting point.

The Conservatives are hitting the beach running, and it’s a good thing too. We have plenty of very hard work, and even harder choices to make, in the next two years. The run-up to 2012 has already started, with some some of the usual suspects named ‘considering’ possible runs for the presidency.

There’s no one out there so far that I’m really excited about, though there are some with whom I have some real reservations. I know Dee is busily ferreting out information on runners and possible runners, and we’ll talk about them from time to time.

I’m not going to fall for the Sarah Palin run gambit though. If she decides on a run, she would be a very formidable opponent for anyone the Marxists threw up there against her. She is simply the most exciting political figure of our time. She generates the same level of excitement that John Kennedy was able to command. The Marxists had better hope she doesn’t run. She may decide not to this time. She may decide she’s more powerful and flexible outside of a campaign, traveling the nation in support of Conservative candidates and issues.

I like Newt Gingrich… he’s a nice guy, he’s really bright too… but much too mired in the political past and far too willing to compromise on certain issues. He’s simply a big government Republican. He’s not one of the two I mentioned though… I’ve saved them for last.

Mitt Romney lost me when he championed a single-payer type health care system for the state of Massachusetts. He says he launched it with all good intentions and unscrupulous people came behind him and changed it in the state legislature. Duh! Sorry, Mitt.

The other one is Mike Huckabee. Once again, a nice guy but he’s not presidential material. If you question him closely enough, he’s dangerously soft on illegal aliens and how to deal with the millions already here. He’s simply not tough enough. He also raised taxes on Arkansans, something not likely to endear voters to him should he run.

It’s time to saddle up for the run to 2012 and the sunset of the Obama Marxist coup against the American Republic.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2011

2012 and the 2010 Presidential "Permission Threshold"

A Tale of Two Brackets

It is an axiom in presidential politics that national polls are meaningless (ask Rudy Giuliani) -- the states select party nominees, and the states elect the president.  However, since large slices of the political establishment buy into national polls, a candidate's standing there affects his or her ability to raise money and gain attention that can be translated into votes in the critical early primaries.

The national polls fall into something larger and deeper, though.  The rank a candidate holds in national polls is far less important than which of two brackets the candidate falls into: Bracket 1) the top three who net double digits, and Bracket 2) everybody else.

A Raw Deal- A Case for a No Nonsense Canidate in 2012

Personal opinion aside, one comment on this site has me irked about the chances that Barak Obama has in the 2012 elections. Why? Glenn Beck had a demonstration Tuesday on his TV program using a pair of caskets. The demonstration was that two men wearing a red shirt(Republicans) and a blue shirt(Democrats) were shutting the lid on the casket(the US). The Republican was using hammer and nails while the other had a power drill to screw the casket shut. The point of the demonstration is that the government programs that both the republicans and democrats have created are spending us out of house and shirt.

If you TiVo the show, you will see that the democrats have won the race.

Why did I bring up Glenn Beck when this column is supposed to be about Sarah Palin and her chances in 2012?

The conservative/moderate divide that runs through the Republican party has been a great one. Compare it to the policies of Ronald Regan and Arnold Schwarzenegger. Both are Republicans, and both are governors of California. However, one difference runs rampant between them. While both have tax and spent during their tenure as governor, Regan realized that a balanced budget and conservative principles is what led this country to greatness and he used the lessons that he learned as governor of California and lead this country as President to its most prosperous years. He also ended the cold war by threatening to use force and tore down the Berlin Wall. Arnold, on the other hand, has tax and spent his way into issuing I. O. U.s to state employees and cut funding to critical state projects and programs.

Where was I, oh yes, Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin's decision or indecision to run in 2012 is giving the liberal media fits because they are salivating at the throat for another bite at the apple to destroy her. They don't understand her popularity among Americans. Is it the fact that Sarah Palin says what she means and means what she says, or is it the fact that she knows the sentament of the American people and talk to them about it unlike Nancy Pelosi and “Dingy” Harry Reid(in the immortal words of Rush Limbagh) and talk down to them like they are nannies. It doesn't matter to liberals at the New York Times, Washington Post, MSNBC or CNN to name a few, they see someone who stands out in American pop culture and seeks to destroy them by hook or crook.

The point of this column isn't to encourage Sarah Palin to run in 2012, but if she does, then great. The point of this column is to show that, thankfully, if you hold to your principles you can withstand the liberal attacks and come out stronger than you come in.

The mystery of Sarah Palin can be explained through her political career. She doesn't speak nonsense, and has led by example. Her poll numbers have supported the fact that she knew what Alaskans and, by extension, Americans wanted like drilling for our own oil, having a strong national defense, and actually supporting capitalism. And Obama? He has the lowest approval rating in his presidency, the stimulus failed, “Cash for Clunkers” failed, and his “Universal” healthcare is in congressional hell and will not pass as quickly as he would like. He wonders why he is being compared to Jimmy Carter instead of Abraham Lincoln.

Let's chase a rabbit here and actually compare the two. Abraham Lincoln, when he spoke the emancipation proclamation during the Civil War, meant what he said and said what he meant. He fired his commanders on the ground just because they wouldn't fight to win the war. Abraham Lincoln treated all Americans as Americans and was willing to fight a war to keep it that way.

Obama? He drags his feet while men and women fight and die for our country while General McCrystal, a man that he appointed to be the man in Afganistan, is begging for 40,000 more troops by the end of the year or our efforts have failed. While Obama has indicated that he will have a troop increase, but only 35,000 according to one source. He also rammed through the stimulus package to reward his SCIU friends saying that we have to get it passed now or the economy will crash like the stock market did in 1929, much like he is trying to do with healthcare. Our reward for passing the stimulus? The highest unemployment in nearly 8 years at over 10%. That is one in ten working class Americans that do not have a job today, and that number is expected to climb.

In closing, America needs to return to our principles of limited government and stop the brand of socialism that Obama is trying to ram down our throats. America's debt doesn't need to grow nine to eleven times over the next ten years just to “fundamentally transform America” in Obama's image.

Sorry, the Domain Names SarahPalinforPresident.com and SarahPalin2012 Are Taken

                                       PalinDomainU4prezBookmark and Share    It is quite difficult to say who is or isn’t running for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2010. I suspect that Mitt Romney is. By all historic measures he is next in line and current levels of activity make it likely that he is running.  I also suspect that Mississippi’s Governor, Haley Barbour is seriously looking at the nomination. John Ensign of Nevada was running. That is until an extramarital affair of his could no longer be hidden and the secret attempts by his mommy and daddy to pay off his mistress all came to light and put an end to that ridiculous notion. 

Some sectors were already campaigning for South Carolina’s Governor Mark Sanford. With “Draft Sanford” web site’s and rampant prognostications, Sanford was riding a wave of public enthusiasm for a run at the Republican nomination. Then he disappeared from sight for more than 5 days, leaving everyone to wonder what happened to Governor Sanford and where in the world is Mark? The answer to that quickly brought down those “Draft Sanford for President” sites. He was in Argentina with his “soul mate”, a pretty young thing he met some years ago and fell  more in love with her than he was with his wife.

But still riding high as potential candidates in 2010 are Mitt Romney, who trailed McCain in the delegate count in 2008, and Sarah Palin, who McCain chose for Vice President.

Such speculation about Romney can be made out of the level and type of activity that he is wading into.

With his political action committee, Free and Strong America PAC, he is actively involved in critical races throughout the nation, including this years gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia and gaining the favor of future elected officials who will be crucial supporters in the future.

He has also become a part of the National Council for a New America, a group of leaders that include Republicans such as former Florida Governor Jeb, Bush, Congressman Eric Cantor and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. This group intends to have a serious national discussion about the challenges facing America, small businesses and working families and they are taking the discussion on the road all across the nation.

Additionally, Romney is bringing in the mother’s milk of political campaigning…….money. His fundraising is constant, consistent and high.

So all are indications that in 2012, Romney will be running for the nomination that he was denied by the Republican establishment in 2008.

As for Sarah Palin, she confused pundits with her surprise resignation as Governor of Alaska and confounded the status quo. Opponents of Palin do not take the reasons she gave for resigning at face value. Instead they claim she is a quitter or that she can’t take the heat. What they neglect to realize is that Sarah Palin is not your average politician. They can’t seem to comprehend that Sarah Palin is genuine. She is a real person with personal beliefs and convictions that are not affected by political ambition, opinion polls or inside the beltway political games. They also fail to realize that Sarah Palin does not live for politics or allow  politics to change her life or principles. To the contrary she stands for her life changing politics.

As such, Sarah Palin made it clear that as a national target of liberal antics geared at attacking her, her agenda for Alaska was being hampered by frivolous legal challenges against every breathe she took, word she muttered and garment she wore. Therefore Sarah Palin decided to circumvent these tactics. Confident that her Lieutenant Governor was dedicated to the agenda that she has taken to this point, she took away the target that hampered its further expeditious advancement . Herself.

Now, no longer an available official government target for the hate-based liberal establishment, Sarah Palin is free and what the left does not realize is that freedom is much more powerful than any government office or liberal government program. With the power of freedom now in her hands, Sarah Palin just might be more of a threat to the left than she ever was and as she uses that freedom, she just might take them on by starting a run for the Republican presidential nomination.

Former Vice Presidents and Vice Presidential nominees don’t always have the best shot at being elected President or at getting their parties presidential nomination.

Al Gore got the nomination in 2000 but lost the election. Lieberman was his VP nominee but failed to get the presidential nomination in 2004.

John Edwards got the VP slot in 2004 but failed to get his parties presidential nomination in ’08.

Before them George H.W. Bush and Richard Nixon before him, where the only contemporary Vice President’s to eventually move on and win their parties nomination for President, in their own right, and then the presidency itself.

In 1984 Jimmy Carter’s vice president, Walter Mondale won the Democrat’s nomination in ‘84 but lost and Bush 41’s vice president, Dan Quayle, fell off the radar before the Iowa Caucuses took place during his brief attempt to win the Republican nomination in 2000.

So vice presidents and vice presidential nominees don’t necessarily have the inside track to their party’s nomination for President and as we look toward 2012, Sarah Palin will not be on the fast track for it either. If she seeks the nomination, she will still be the target of liberal hypocrisy and their fear driven propaganda and attacks and she will have to fight hard and truly earn the nomination amidst a field that will have a number of formidable choices. Only now the left will not be able to bog her down with frivolous and unwarranted government ethics charges and lawsuits.

Now that Palin has just officially resigned as Governor, she could easily enjoin that race and begin to lace up her running shoes for a long marathon to the White House.

It is hard to tell though.

Sarah could be so pissed at those who have tried to destroy her and her family and who have tried to impede progress in Alaska, that she is either fed up and leaving politics for a more civil path for the promotion of her beliefs or she may simply be reloading her ideological guns as she prepares to take aim at the liberal philosophy and its purveyors who have run amuck and now control government.

So far, there are no concrete indications that make it clear either way. At least there are no indications of the likes that we see with Mitt Romney.

But there is one little clue that could be telling.

The domain names sarahpalinforpresident.com and sarahpalin2012 have recently been claimed and registered.

Normally that could simply be the doing of some dreamy eyed, entrepreneurial, get rich quick minded person who figures on selling those domains to Sarah Palin for big bucks if she does make it official.

However a closer look reveals that these two domain names were registered by Jay Griffin of Anchorage Alaska. Where he is from is not half as important as the fact that he is a close confidant of Sarah Palin and that, along with Palin, he is a member of the Alaska Republican Party Central Committee.

Could Griffin be hoping to make some money off of his friend Sarah Palin if she does run for President? Or, is he and his new domain names just the start of a long campaign to evict Barack Obama from the White House and to take back America from the Pelosi/Reid liberal mentality that is currently infecting our government in flu-like fashion?

Odds are that an exploratory committee for that possibility are in the works.

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Hackasaurus Wrecks: Or how DC insiders hate us for not hating Palin

We've seen an awful lot of nasty verbiage from the chattering classes in response to the Sarah Palin resignation. Upon reflection, it says a lot more about them and what they think about the people who really support the Republican party than it reflects on Palin.

Let me first preface that I'm assuming Palin isn't stepping down because she is running off to the tropics with Rosie O'Donnell or has converted the Alaska pension funds into gold bullion in a numbered Zurich account. Assuming that she simply thought "going with the flow" was what dead fish do; this move still could be as useful to her ambitions for elective office as Plaxico Burress's marksmanship was to his football career. It does appear the Republican base were understanding of the move; but that still won't win a general election.

I'll also preface that I respect the opinions of those who simply and dispassionately think Palin is not presently ready to run for President, and will not make the effort to attain that stature.  I'm willing to reserve judgment until I see what Palin 2.0 looks and sounds like.

But I think we ought to at least appreciate that Palin took on the thankless task of trying to derail the Barack Obama juggernaut.  Unfortunately, it seems the DC insiders are for the most part more interested in fragging their own troops than leading the counteroffensive.

Two in particular are Micks gone wrong---Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy. As for our party, it's like they've thrown away their rosaries and enlisted in the Black & Tans 

Peggy Noonan once used her "force" for good. Sadly, she seems to have slipped the surly bounds of both political reality and good taste in her latest columm.

In television interviews she was out of her depth in a shallow pool. She was limited in her ability to explain and defend her positions, and sometimes in knowing them. She couldn't say what she read because she didn't read anything. She was utterly unconcerned by all this and seemed in fact rather proud of it: It was evidence of her authenticity. She experienced criticism as both partisan and cruel because she could see no truth in any of it. She wasn't thoughtful enough to know she wasn't thoughtful enough. Her presentation up to the end has been scattered, illogical, manipulative and self-referential to the point of self-reverence. "I'm not wired that way," "I'm not a quitter," "I'm standing up for our values." I'm, I'm, I'm.

In another age it might not have been terrible, but here and now it was actually rather horrifying.

Since I have no reason to believe Ms. Noonan actually interviewed Palin before this writing this diatribe the concept of "facts lacking evidence" seems to kick in. But then again, I was busy learning a profession when Peggy was writing feel good speeches for President Reagan.  

It also seems that the alternative--the election of Barack Obama--was less "horrifying" to Ms. Noonan. Jeez.

Noonan then goes on to disparage the Republicans who identify with Palin's background. You see she really isn't  that blue collar and we shouldn't identify with the "politics of resentment"  And you see    " She makes the party look stupid, a party of the easily manipulated."

If anything, the reaction of the Republican rank and file since her resignation announcement should demolish the lie that social conservatives and libertarians are "easy to command" . The entire media establishment  said the Palin decision was at the least "bizarre".  Evidently it was a bad thing now the Republican voter wasn't "easily manipulated" and reached their own conclusions.

You know Peg, I started in Brooklyn and you started there a decade earlier. I ended up at 'Cuse and you went to where, Fairleigh Ridiculous. The difference is my Irish folks don't put on the "lace curtain" airs, pretend we were like the Kennedys and trash the common folk for not being socially aware. Your loss.  

Then again, once you did work for CBS, maybe rooting for the MSM is like hardwired in your DNA. I dunno.  Never had that problem.

Now, for that other marksman of friendly fire, Mike Murphy.  Murphy is a Georgetown grad (one reason I, a Cuse grad, distrust him)  hailing from Grosse Pointe, MI, so there's little reason to think he's really encountered any appreciable number of working stiffs. And let's look at his resume. 

Murphy is a writer and Republican political consultant who has advised John McCain, Mitt Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jeb Bush.

(Yep, Arnold's been such a great Republican governor, Mike. Hope you aren't owed any IOU's. I hear Alaska still pays cash) 

Murphy's a bit less catty than Noonan, but still jumps all over someone whom he says he was an admirer of --McCain--for picking Palin.  And again, it's those terrible clueless people in Middle America who don't know what's good for them. 

 Palin profits mightily from a Republican blind spot. She has all the right smirking enemies in America's media elite. To them, Palin reeks of flyover America, that vast and corny collection of Nebraskas and Alabamas where the Army can always meet enlistment quotas and Tina Fey's private jet stops briefly to refuel. Red state Republicans see the snarky, elite attacks on Palin as an attack on them. And in some ways, they are.

I'm trying to figure out what Murphy's accomplishing here.  He can't be doing his buddy Mitt Romney any good by trashing the very people Mitt needs to get nominated. But then again, Murphy does MSNBC and is writing scripts in Hollywood. Maybe we just aren't that important to him anymore?

I may not be part of the meritocracy here, Mike, but, hmm, it's not like you haven't been associated with campaigns that crashed and burned----which you conveniently omit from the resume.  ( Hey, I never spent $42 million to lose what started as a dead-even statewide race to Hillary Clinton--by 12 points!)

I won;t even dignify the likes of John Weaver--last seen trying to get Huntsman in as the RINO hope after failing to get McCain to run as a Democrat--with a response. Nor Steve Chapman who thinks Palin's support is all due to looks, as if every Republican doesn;t have a gender gap.   

Lemme set this one up for ya, Peg and Mike. You guys have been running the Republican party from your little salons for over a decade. And running it into the ground while the both of you have personally done wonderfully.  And you think the rank-and-file weren't gonna notice?

You guys act like you are in the Omega House and we are the Delta House.

Let's see where a decade of poll tested, focus grouped, well researched, blow dried Republicanism got us from the professionals and party statesmen.  Sarah Palin's favorable rating is higher than that of the Republican party.  Hello, who's dragging who down?

Voters are turning against the center and that includes the professional consultant industry, K Street lobbyists, retread candidates (including the "heir force") and especially Republicans who'd rather attack their own party members instead of Obama.  Maybe we're tired of being told things like Arnold is pro-taxpayer or the GOP Congress was against wasteful spending.

I think we crave authenticity and the willingness to fight. And that's the last thing to expect from the old timers trying to keep their grip on the party. It's time for some "creative destruction" to the hackasaurses who can't see their way clear to respect the very people who are now the Republican Party 

I have a suggestion for any and all Republicans who do not want Sarah Palin to be our nominee in 2012.

How about....hmmmm....running a better candidate and explaining why he or she is better?

or isn't that haughty enough? 

Republicans' Short Bench Problem

One of the overlooked downsides to the electoral wipeout the Republican Party has endured in the past two election cycles is how those elections have drastically shrunk the amount of Republicans who are nationally prominent.  Without the Presidency, and the loss of Governors, Senators, and Representatives, there aren't very many potential leaders left among Republicans.  Also, even the most loyal party man surely isn't enamored with every Republican elected official.  What you hear these days is a cry wondering where Republican leadership is.  Debates about who is the "leader" of the Republican Party are distracting at this point, but there seems to be a paucity of those who could even be in the discussion.  Republicans have a short bench problem, which hurts their ability to have national leadership in Congress, in the states, and in the future, in the White House.

Governors

In the 1990s, Republican Governors (along with some big city mayors) were instrumental in making public policy changes that would eventually be successful at the national level.  Part of the reason why Bush's 2000 campaign was successful was because he made himself the custodian of the achievements that Tommy Thompson, John Engler, Rudy Giuliani, and even Bush as Governor achieved.

There are 22 Republican Governors at the moment.  What is more distressing is how few innovative leaders there are among Republican Governors.  Many Republican Governors are governors of small Plains or Rocky Mountain States that are invisible on a national stage.  There is surprising vitality in New England with three GOP governors, but they are generally too moderate for the national Republican Party.  Two standouts who deserve some national attention are John Hoeven from North Dakota and Donald Carcieri of Rhode Island.  Hoeven was reelected last year with 74 percent of the vote when McCain only received 53 percent.  National Republicans have begged him to challenge the state's two Democratic Senators.  Carcieri somehow managed to be elected twice as an actual conservative in one of the most liberal states in the country.  Neither is of Presidential timber, but they could be excellent future Senatorial candidates or national Republican voices.

Some Governors have been failures (Schwarzenegger), some are good for their state but too moderate nationally (other New England governors, perhaps Crist), some have just been installed in the past year, and at least one is too busy in Argentina to be taken seriously.  I would say there is a handful of top tier Republican Governors at this point.  Bobby Jindal, by his own acknowledgment, is too green to make any moves yet.  John Huntsman is certainly a formidable figure, but he also is a more long-term hope considering he will be Ambassador to China for the next few years.  Haley Barbour has generally been a successful Governor of Mississippi and could fill the Southern slot in a primary.  Tim Pawlenty has been a rare blue state Republican in recent years.  I think he is likely to be a 2012 candidate and would be considered a top contender if he ran.  The crown jewel, in my opinion, is Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana.  He's probably the best Republican politican in America right now.  Earning nearly 60 percent of the vote last year when Obama won Indiana indicates he has some crossover appeal.  He claims that he is not interested in seeking higher office, which is a real shame.

Senators

Republicans have lost 15 Senate seats in the past three years.  This attrition clears out opportunites for Republicans to come up with national leaders.  The 40 Republicans left are bereft of national figures.  McConnell is a master floor manager but no national spokesman.  McCain is a real leader, but his national campaign days are over.  The GOP caucus is dominated by Southern good ol' boys and small state senators.  Guys from Wyoming or Idaho won't find national traction and the good ol' boys are better vote jockeys than communicators.

I would say the following Senators are, or could be, good national leaders for Republicans: John Kyl, Judd Gregg, Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint, John Thune, and Bob Corker.  Coburn and DeMint already are good conservative voices in the Senate, but would never be Presidential material.  Kyl does a good job on Judiciary, but is somewhat in the shadow of McCain.  To my mind Gregg has been the most articulate Senator in the past year, but he always indicates that he wants to retire.  Corker is still a freshman, but was the point man for GOP efforts on the car bailouts.  Thune is also a freshman, but is the youngest Republican Senator by a mile.  There are virtually no 2012 Presidential candidates in the Senate.  I believe this is why Ensign was trying to run for President before his affair was disclosed.  Of the entire Republican Senatorial membership, I could only see Thune having a serious campaign in 2012.

Others

Members of the House of Representatives are not national leaders (Speaker of the House exempted).  Impressive Representatives like Paul Ryan and Mike Pence would need to become Senators or Governors to have a real shot at the Presidency.  If Jack Kemp couldn't win the nomination from the House, then I don't think any non-Speaker would be able to.

Of course, there are still the retired political figures and those who were candidates last time.  Romney seems a near lock to run again and would have to be considered the frontrunner.  Huckabee will never be President, but he may run, especially if no Southerner is in the race.  I think Palin's resignation indicates she won't run in 2012, but she still is young and already has a big national following.  I don't think we'll see another Wesley Clark/Fred Thompson fantasy candidate next time.

Conclusion

The Republican bench is very thin at this point.  If you are looking towards 2012, I would predict right now the only serious candidates who will run are Romney, Pawlenty, and Barbour.  Daniels would certainly be in that grouping if he decided to run.  Sure, you would get the Tom Tancredos of the world running no shot campaigns, but those candidacies are irrelevant.  I think beyond 2012 Jindal, Huntsman, Thune, and perhaps Palin 2.0 would be serious Presidential candidates.  There really is a leadership vacuum in the Republican Party right now.  A smart, ambitious Republican could certainly find an easy path to the top.

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