UPDATE: The McCain campaign pushes back, starting at around 8:30 of today's conference call...
This has to be incredibly disappointing to anyone who's worked their hearts out for John McCain the last two years out in the field:
The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices. This week, a number of veteran GOP operatives who orchestrate door-to-door efforts to get voters to the polls were told they should not expect to receive plane tickets, rental cars or hotel rooms from the campaign.
"The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground," said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. "The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel."
The strategy has the full backing of no less an authority on these matters than Bob Dole's 1996 campaign manager:
Scott Reed, an informal McCain adviser who in 1996 ran then-Sen. Robert J. Dole's presidential bid, said the campaign made the right call by dedicating more money to its media effort. Ads are the most efficient way to persuade undecided voters, and possibly convince some who are only tepidly backing Obama, he said.
The strategy is a Hail Mary ripped right from an old-school playbook. A good field operation counts for 2-3 points, and this is not a 2-3 point race. But the notion that TV counts for 6 points in the modern era is crackpipe. If you have a 3-to-1 advertising lead, it counts for maybe a point. And we are not talking about outspending Obama, but matching him.
Nor do we have a decent "closing argument" spot, if this is any indication. This was Bush's final ad in 2004:
And thought this was not his close, this Bush 2000 ad aired in the last month had the feel of a closing argument, and made the argument against government far more comprehensively that McCain has this year (no YouTube):
Audio:George W. Bush: I believe we need to encourage personal responsibility so people are accountable for their actions. And I believe in government that is responsible to the people. That's the difference in philosophy between my opponent and me. He trusts government. I trust you. I trust you to invest some of your own social security money for higher returns. I trust local people to run their own schools. In return for federal money, I will insist on performance. And if schools continue to fail, we'll give parents different options. I trust you with some of the budget surplus. I believe one fourth of the surplus should go back to the people who pay the bills. My opponent proposes “targeted tax cuts” only for those he calls the “right people.” And that means half of all income taxpayers get nothing at all. We should help people live their lives, but not run them. Because when we trust individuals, when we respect local control of schools, when we empower communities, together we can ignite America's spirit and renew our purpose.
The most likely scenario -- absent a blockbuster revelation -- is McCain's ad splurge falls flat, and Obama, virtually uncontested in the field, is if anything able to expand his current lead by getting more of his voters to the polls.
At this point, only an October Surprise or voters finally getting cold feet about Obama in the final 72 hours will move the polls 6 points. TV ads alone are actually a remarkably inefficient way to move the polls at the national level with interest in the race this high -- especially if this is what McCain is putting up.
May this be the last traditional, by-the-playbook Republican campaign ever.
