al gore

Research Proves Global Warming Models Wrong

 

By Richard Boren

(Rick Boren is a contributing writer at LowDownCentral.com)

There is new research (review of it attached) which you may want to pass along to anyone who has been persuaded that (1) humans are causing the planet to warm, (2) this will have a disastrous effect, and (3) we should try to do something about it such as passing Cap and Trade legislation, installing subsidized wind and solar power plants, buying hybrid cars, CFL bulbs and so forth.   The more scientifically-oriented of you can go right to the attachment.  The article begins at the bottom of the first page. Others may choose to read the rest of this e-mail. Everyone should understand that it is NOT a proven fact that humans have any effect on the climate.  However, the media and some politicians treat it that way.  Those who say that "the science is settled" are just plain wrong.  Even Mr. Gore, if pressed, would have to admit that the predictions of warming are 100% the result of computer models. That's right, 100%.  It's all a prediction somewhat like predicting the weather, only much, much, harder. The people making these computer models insert the known facts.  They also insert various assumptions of how these facts will interact with one another, coming up with what they hope will be a model of the climate that will produce accurate predictions.  Those assumptions mean everything, and now the research proves that they are wrong.  And not just a little wrong.  It turns out that the assumptions are exactly backwards. At the risk of using a dated computer expression, don't forget that it's still true that Garbage In = Garbage Out (GIGO).  Have you ever worked with a computer spreadsheet?  Have you ever inserted your estimates of future revenue and expenses and seen how  a few little changes here and there can result in either huge profits or devastating losses?  You might, for example, realize that at 3% revenue growth you'll go broke in four years, but at 7% you'll be a billionaire in six years.  It's hard to be objective in those circumstances, especially if you have investors.  In the case of the climate modelers, virtually all of them are funded by grants designed to study the climate "problem."  No problem, no grant.  No fame either.  No political power.  Objectivity can be difficult to maintain.  The computer models on which all of the fears are based rely on the assumption that carbon dioxide (CO2), a weak greenhouse gas, will trigger something called positive feedback which will amplify its weak effect, causing the effect to grow and grow.  (Positive feedback here is not the same thing as getting compliments about your job performance.  In this case, it means that when more of something happens it triggers even more of it to happen, with a snowballing effect.)  The climate models on which the current fears are based all assume that this positive feedback will occur. Without this assumed positive feedback, no human-caused global warming will occur.  Without the positive feedback assumption, the predictions of the models wouldn't scare anyone. The good news for the planet is that instead of having to make feedback assumptions there is now real data, and it shows that in the real world the feedback is negative. This means that the warming effect of CO2 triggers an effect that offsets it.  Therefore, all of the models are wrong. In plain English, this means that increased CO2 will not warm the planet. Whoopee! You can read more about this in the attached newsletter, Access to Energy, with the article beginning at the bottom of the first page. (I've been a subscriber for over 30 years.)  For more background, and what you should do, please read on. As most of us know, Earth has warmed by about 1 degree over the last century.  It has been much warmer in the past, and we are still here.  It has been much colder in the past and we are still here.  Today we are in one of the better heat ranges.  Of course, at some point it would be too hot to sustain life as we know it.  As most of us also know by now, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a "greenhouse" gas.  That means that it tends to trap the sun's heat in the atmosphere rather than allowing it to escape into space.  CO2 is what humans and all animals exhale after breathing in oxygen.  It is also what is produced when we burn so-called fossil fuels like wood, coal and petroleum products.  No one doubts the benefits of the energy we get from these inexpensive sources.  Furthermore, plants need CO2.  Increased CO2 has greatly improved the growth of plants and trees.  However,  a legitimate concern is whether there is a serious or even catastrophic downside because of CO2's greenhouse effect.  Studying this issue has been the right thing to do to. CO2 is a relatively minor greenhouse gas, which means that its effect in and of itself is small.  There is not much of it in the atmosphere, about 300-400 parts for every million parts of air.  However, we are adding to it at a fairly good rate.  Given the economic realities, there is virtually no chance that countries like China and India are going to stop or even slow down very much.  To hear some people tell it, the very existence of mankind is threatened. That is, of course, unless we here in America turn our lives upside down and spend trillions of dollars on more expensive energy.  That will apparently convince the rest of the world to do the same.  Well, maybe not, but at least we'll be "green" --  green and poor.  Have you ever noticed that the poor people of the Third World don't care about being "green?"  Food and shelter come first. President Obama has advisors who are committed to the belief that humans are causing global warming and that we need to stop it.  Their mantra is "the science is settled."  I do not believe that they are intellectually honest.  Why else do they refuse every offer to debate the scientific issues?  Why do they resort to name-calling rather than dealing with the evidence? They will never admit that they are wrong, and Obama is not going to hear anything else. The information in the attachment is not going to get to him. Can you imagine Al Gore walking into the Oval office and saying, "Mr. President, there is new evidence on global warming.  It turns out that I was wrong.  There's no problem. We don't have to do anything about it."  It has been said that Al Gore is going to make a billion dollars off of cap and trade.  In my view he would deserve to make even more if he actually helped save the planet.  But he and the others who stand to make money or wield political power don't want to hear the good news.   And they won't unless you and others do something about it.  Last Friday, Glenn Beck interviewed Christopher Monckton, who briefly presented what I've discussed above.  This is probably the largest exposure this will get in the mass media.  If this troubles you, please tell others, including your elected representatives.  Spread the word: the sky is not falling.

 

The Story of the Cro-Magnons and the Neanderthals

Cro-Magnon Bore 

 

Once upon a time, tens of thousands of years ago, there lived in Europe two classes of primates. Although we don’t know what they called themselves, today we refer to them as the Cro-Magnons and the Neanderthals.

Although the two groups didn’t live together, their members would occasionally encounter one another in the forest. One day a young Neanderthal named Fil (pronounced “feel”) ran into an older Cro-Magnon named Thnk (pronounced “think”). Fil and Thnk had seen each other for years, and over time they developed the habit of taking a break from hunting by sitting down and having a chat beside the creek. 

Thnk began the conversation. “So, what’s up?” 

“Glad you asked,” said Fil, “we’re making big changes that will save Urth (pronounced “earth”). Urth was their name for the land in which everyone lived. 

“I didn’t know that Urth was in danger,” said Thnk. “What are you talking about?” 

“Our Witch Doctor studied the signs, and he told us that unless we stop using fire we will destroy Urth and us with it.” 

Thnk couldn’t believe what he was hearing. “What??? Stop using fire? How will you cook your food? How will you light your caves at night? How will you keep from freezing to death in the winter?” 

Fil answered, “That hasn’t been completely worked out, but our Tribal Chief has convinced us we are in a crisis. Both he and our Witch Doctor say that they are working on some promising alternatives. For example, they say that if we leave a bunch of rocks out in the sun all day they’ll get hot. Then we can bring them into the cave at night to keep warm. I don’t know how that would work on cloudy days, but they say that we’ll figure it out. They are putting our best wood gatherers and fire builders to work on the problem.” 

“We took a look at this issue ourselves,” said Thnk. Our Witch Doctor has been using a new kind of sign called Evdnc (pronounced “evidence”) and he doesn’t see a problem. In fact, our fire builders have discovered ways to make better fires with less wood. Now we have extra wood. I’m sure that we’ll come up with some uses for it.“ Thnk paused for a moment and added, “We just want to be warm and have plenty of food. Aren’t you afraid that giving up fire is big gamble? What if your Witch Doctor is wrong?” 

“I wondered about that,” said Fil, “but if I say anything, all of the others will say that I don’t care about Urth, and our Tribal Chief will make fun of me and will call me a denyr (pronounced “denier”). And they say that soon anyone who burns wood will be punished. I’ve been getting pretty cold at night lately, but I have to admit that I feel great about saving Urth so I guess it’s worth it. Besides, even if it doesn’t work out as planned we’ll still end up with soot-free caves.” 

A few months later Thnk saw Fil across a meadow. Fil looked thin and not well. Thnk thought about calling out to him, but it had started to snow so he headed for home where he knew that a nice warm fire was waiting for him. 

Much time passed. The Cro-Magnons evolved into modern man. The Neanderthals became extinct. All we know of them comes from the discovery of bone fragments found in remarkably soot-free caves.

Richard Boren

http://www.lowdowncentral.com/feature-article/2009/6/29/the-story-of-the-cro-magnons-and-the-neanderthals.html

 

Again leading from the rear

Thus Spake Al Gore:

If you're a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and sequestration.

It is my fervent hope that within the month we will see the former Vice President and a few dozen young persons chained to construction equipment outside Pittsburgh, chanting pro-nuclear slogans and eating soy granola.

I mean, that would be seriously fantastic.

Of course, it was just over a year ago that Mr. Gore said “I can’t understand why there aren’t rings of young people blocking bulldozers, and preventing them from constructing coal-fired power plants.”

While the spectres of Rachel Corrie and Daniel McGowan loom behind Mr. Gore, I can't help but wonder why he keeps putting the onus on young people to chain themselves to the construction equipment. Surely he's not afraid to get his hands dirty in order to save the planet? It's time to lead by example, Mr. Gore--and stop placing excessive burdens on future generations. Rather than asking the youth to risk jail or physical harm, wouldn't it be more responsible to encourage them to go see the last of the polar bears, or the few remaining glaciers? Before they're gone?

Let those few baby boomers who have a conscience bear the consequences of sacrifice. After all, this is a cause worth sacrificing for, isn't it Mr. Gore?

Three signs that #dontGo might be moving the ball

I have been a little skeptical of the whole #dontGo thing. Perhaps inappropriately so. I saw three thinigs today that might be changing my mind about the effect. At the very least, it is changing Democratic minds and raising GOP coin. I can't ask for better than that.

Grist and Open Left's Matt Stoller both object to this language from a letter from Al Gore's We Can Solve It campaign:

Last week, the U.S. Congress left Washington without addressing the energy crisis. They didn't deal with gas prices. They didn't move on solutions to climate change. What's worse, their inability to renew the clean energy tax credits means that government incentive programs to support the solar and wind industries will expire at the end of this year. Jobs will be lost as a result of their inaction.

Grist and Matt are right. When the greenies use that framing, we win.

Second, a Democratic candidate in upstate New York running against Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-NY) demands that Nancy Pelosi bring back Congress:

A top Democratic House candidate is calling for Congress to convene a special session to address the lingering energy problems that went unaddressed when the chamber adjourned earlier this month.

Gulf War veteran Eric Massa, who is making his second attempt at taking down Rep. Randy Kuhl (R-N.Y.), stressed that he disagrees with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on the issue. Pelosi has resisted calls — which have come almost exclusively from Republicans — for a special session.

And third, the RNC got in the game with an email this morning. This is both educating activists and raising coin. As Morton Blackwell noted last Friday, Republican activists see the GOP fighting for something. That's good.

Pointless: The Fight Against Global Warming

Crossposted at Right Minds

Recently, Al Gore made headlines by declaring that the world must end the use of fossil fuels for energy within ten years in order to prevent irreparable harm to the planet. According to the UK Guardian, Gore didn’t get into specifics in his speech, which was probably a good idea since the Alliance for Climate Protection (which Gore chairs) estimates that the cost of ending fossil fuel would range between 1.5 trillion and 3 trillion dollars. Gore claims that he is aware of the difficulties of this goal. He isn’t .
 
Reducing carbon dioxide by any meaningful amount is not just difficult—it is impossible. Anyone who claims differently simply has no idea of the role carbon dioxide plays in the modern world.
 
It really isn’t clear just how much carbon dioxide needs to go. Gore thinks all emissions should stop by 2018; that obviously won’t happen, even if we discover alternate energy sources which would provide for our energy needs. Gore and his alcolytles really don’t say just where the tipping point is—the emissions level in 1900 were 50 billion metric tons, and today emissions hover around 350 billion tons, but just where worldwide emissions crossed the line isn’t clear. For the sake of argument, lets assume that the salvation of the world depends on reducing greenhouse gas emissions by fifty percent. While probably actually less than Gore and company would want, that is a goal that is at least somewhat concievable.
 
And to meet even this comparatively modest goal, America, China, and Taiwan would have to completely eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions, and we still just barely reach this objective. And by America, I mean all of America—Canada and Mexico are included, along with the entirety of South America. That is what climate change advocates are up against—you could wipe two continents off the face of the earth and the problem would still exist. (Chart here)
 
Fortunately, Gore (Gore, by the way, seems to represent nearly all global warming doomsayers, so his statements usually speak for the whole movement), has a plan. By doing simple things like using environmentally friendly light bulbs, turning down the thermostat, and turning off lights when not in use, YOU can do your part to save the planet.
 
Nonsense. You could eliminate Great Britain and over 98% of carbon emissions would remain. Fighting global warming is waste of resources—if the science behind the theory is flawed, then doing so is unnecessary, if accurate, then it is futile. There is nothing we can do to affect global warming.
 
Most environmentalists would, I assume, would counter that argument by saying that when faced with a crisis of this magnitude, the least we can do is to try to stop it, even if the chances of success are slight. This is a bad idea. First, the concept of “humanity banding together to meet a near impossible challenge” only works in science fiction movies when the aliens invade Earth—it doesn’t hold up so well in real life. Second, humanity may as well be hanged for a sheep as a lamb—if the oceans will boil and the icecaps melt, we might as well preserve a decent standard of living in the process.
 
Furthermore, fighting global warming has a steep price. In Tanzania, the population can’t turn their thermostats down two degrees because they don’t have thermostats. In many South American countries, most people don’t have lights to turn off. Most of the globe remains poor in a world in which energy is mostly cheap and abundant. If Gore and his cronies get their way, energy will become immeasurably more expensive. These people will remain forever poor, victims of a war fought against an enemy that is either nonexistent or inescapable.
 
Climate change advocates should realize this fact. Taking government action to prevent global warming is more than pointless or futile—it is grossly irresponsible, and the global warming movement should consider the consequences of their policies.

 

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