Alaska

 There is a lot of confusion and misinformation that I am seeing about the Senate races that currently hang in the balance in the states of Minnesota, Alaska, and Georgia. The Democrats hold 57 Senate seats as of this writing, and were they to win all three of these contested races they would hit the magic number of 60. 

This of course can not be allowed to happen, and it is imperative that Republicans mobilize in full force in order to prevent these seats from turning to Democratic hands. All three are seats that are filled by incumbent Republicans, one who has now been conviced on several felonies, which complicates his bid for re-election.

Minnesota, could potentially be the closest and therefor most hotly contested race. As of this writing, because of corrupt vote counting, or fair vote counting, depending of course on your party, incumbent Norm Coleman leads by .007% of the vote, or just 206 ballots. Anything under .5% triggers a mandatory recount, which will begin on November 18th. Even before the recount, Franken has been gaining. On election night, Coleman led by more than 700 votes, but has lost ground quickly. It is interesting to note, the gains Franken has made outperforms how Democrats including Obama performed in Minnesota, which raises some eyebrows. I believe there is some peculiar vote counting going on, for this reason. This race will be decided by court battles and long hand recounts. In the end, I think Franken is in the stronger position, despite the current tally. I believe Coleman is in serious trouble, and has a good chance of losing his seat, in fact, I believe Franken will win it, and I call this seat for the Democrats. 

In Alaska, the race is very close as well. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens leads by only 1.5% over Democratic challenger Mark Begich, a 3,257 vote lead. Stevens will most likely pull it out, despite his conviction and the close race. However, should he win, it is almost certain he will resign, which under Alaska law will trigger a special election. The only reason Mark Begich came close to defeating Stevens is because Stevens is seen as corrupt, a fresh non incumbent, young Republican would easily win a special election regardless of how strong a contender the Democrats throw at the race. Many think should this scenario come to pass, Sarah Palin is likely to run to fill the seat, she is immensely popular in Alaska and would win the seat easily. This seat is safe for Republicans, it is just unclear which Republican will be sitting in it when the dust settles. 

The last race is truly a toss up. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss won the popular vote, but fell .2% short of the 50% mark needed to avoid a run off. Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate, siphoned 4% of the votes off, almost ensuring the Dec. 2nd runoff. Essentially, turnout is the key in this election. There is no presidential vote this time around, and this will work to make turnout very low, most likely below 45%. Whoever gets the most turnout wins, as the Libertarian is not a factor this time, come Dec. 2nd, one man will have a plurality of the vote. Traditionally, the Democrats get-out-the-vote machine is superior to that of the Republicans, and I am very worried about Chambliss' seat. There is no way to make a good prediction, but if I was forced to say who is in the better position, I would say Democrat Jim Martin. Again, this race is very close though, and it is the only one that will be decided by the voters. 

By my tally, the Senate balance of power looks like this. Currently, the Democrats have 57 seats, I predice they will win Coleman's seat in Minnesota, bringing them to 58. I predict a Republican will win the Alaska seat, but I have not the slightest clue who. This keeps the balance at 58. Should Martin win the Georgia seat, which is more likely I think then Chambliss winnning, then the balance shifts to 59, one vote shy of 60.

Of course, Democrats do not need 60 to get past a filibuster. With 59 votes, they can almost always pick off a moderate Republican to support the measure and ram legislation through. Effectively, the Democrats have a working majority in both houses, and they have a president in the White House who is more than willing to sign there legislation. Now, all that remains to be seen is how they will use, or abuse, this new power. 

CNN is announcing that Sen. Ted Stevens has been found guilty on all counts. The Politico has the story.

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) was convicted today on seven counts of failing to report more than $250,000 in improper gifts he received from 1999 to 2006 ... Stevens, 84, now faces a question over whether he will resign, and if he dogood conscience compels us to advise Alaskans not to vote for Ted Stevens for Senate or Don Young for the at-large House seat in Alaska. We leave it to the individual voter whether to abstain or take the step of voting affirmatively for Mark Begich, the Democrat mayor of Anchorage, and candidate for the U.S. Senate, or for Ethan Berkowitz for the at-large House seat in Alaska.es not, whether he can win reelection Nov. 4 in an already tough race. ... Stevens could also be sentenced to as much as five years in federal prison, although considering his age and lack of previous convictions, is unlikely to receive anywhere near the maximum sentence.

Note that Alaska "state law prohibits parties from naming replacement candidates less than 48 days before the election."  Inexplicably, some Republicans have been arguing that Sen. Stevens could still win.  They should have been discussing how Republicans can be rid of him.   Republicans should not be relying on juries and courts to be the ethics enforcers.

UPDATE

Red State recommends Alaskans do not vote for Ted Stevens or Don Young, saying "Republicans need to clean our own house. Washington cannot too soon see the end of Stevens and Young"...

[G]ood conscience compels us to advise Alaskans not to vote for Ted Stevens for Senate or Don Young for the at-large House seat in Alaska. We leave it to the individual voter whether to abstain or take the step of voting affirmatively for Mark Begich, the Democrat mayor of Anchorage, and candidate for the U.S. Senate, or for Ethan Berkowitz for the at-large House seat in Alaska.

Good for them.

**UPDATE** DAN MAYHAK IS A DISABLED VETERAN FROM ALASKA. DAN HAS A DEEP DESIRE TO SPREAD HIS POSITIVE MESSAGE AND HELP FOLKS OUT AROUND THE COUNTRY.

HIS STORY IS ONE OF SACRIFICE, PATRIOTISM FAITH AND OPTIMISM. PLEASE HELP SUPPORT DAN BY RATING THE VIDEO. VIEWING THE VIDEO...BLOGGING ABOUT THE SONG AND VIDEO...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY GO TO CD BABY AND DOWNLOAD THE SONG FOR ONLY A BUCK!!!

DAN WAS FINALLY ISSUED HIS VA BENEFITS ON 9/11 (EERIE ISN'T IT)!! CONGRATS FOR FINALLY WINNING THAT LONG WAR!

I KNOW MANY OF YOU VIEWED THE RNC CONVENTION AND SAW THE END OF MCCAIN'S SPEECH WHERE HE POUNDED HIS FIST AND REPEATED 'STAND UP' STAND UP ETC.

WELL, THAT IS WHAT THIS SONG IS ALL ABOUT, HELL IT'S THE CHORUS! WE HAVE TO GET THE CAMPAIGN TO MAKE USE OF DAN MAYHAK AND HIS SONGS! PLEASE HELP GET THE WORD OUT!! IT'S PERFECT TIMING WHAT WITH SARAH PALIN ALSO FROM ALASKA.....

Thank you

Sheridan Folger

Is our country more concerned about change, or trust?  

One might conclude that with McCain's recent insurgence in the polls, he is winning the change game.  Yet, are the voters who have moved to McCain -- since the choosing of Sarah Palin for VP -- convinced that he will bring about more change?  

Or do they like the air of authenticity that the ticket embodies vs. the urban, blue-blood, highly polished, Washington-insider ticket of Obama-Biden? 



I propose that voters' "change"-ing opinions of John McCain have to do with the likeability of Sarah Palin.  Her small town values and family life, and a "you go girl!" response to her mastery of unexpected challenges, win over voters.  Not just because she's a woman, but also because she's not an Ivy-league educated CEO or lawyer from the glamorous regions of America.

The undecided Midwest -- suburban and rural -- voters can trust Sarah Palin (she's real), and thus trust McCain by association. 



Compare the McCain-Palin ticket then to the Obama-Biden ticket.  The majority of American voters are likely to gravitate towards the service to country ideals more closely aligned with the Midwest and West, the ideals summed up in the "Country First" theme recently touted by the McCain campaign.  
Compare that to the lack of understanding, and even fear, that most Americans feel towards the self-serving inner-city and inner-Congress wheeling and dealing associated with the Northeast and big cities.  



Simply, McCain is from Arizona and Palin is from Alaska; Barack Obama is from Chicago, Illinois and Joe Biden is from Delaware.  McCain began his adulthood by risking his life many times for the security of our country.  Obama began his career in Harvard Law School and then spent a few years as a "community organizer;" he's on his way to career politician-hood. 

Palin did not attain political success due to overt political ambition.  She had pure intentions of serving her family and community, and then her town and her State. She is a "real" person.  Biden, by comparison, has spent nearly his entire adulthood as a member of the most exclusive club in the nation: the U.S. Senate.

Fair or not, the perceptions Americans have of the two presidential tickets are accurate ...  because they are the perceptions of the two presidential tickets. 

With trust in government at an all-time low, which bona fides are more Americans inclined to place their faith in?   



I’ve heard time and again from women regarding McCain's pick of Palin that it's quite "presumptuous" of McCain to count on women to “vote for Palin just because she's a woman."

Ok. So these women, from metropolitan areas outside Washington, DC, Chicago, Houston, Boston and Los Angeles don't need to vote for her.  Most of them wouldn’t have voted for McCain anyway.

Yet, if women, and men (yes, they like her too!), from the Midwest and West are more enthusiastic about McCain, and if they turn out rather than sit out, it’s all over. Make room for McCain-Palin in the White House. 

Cross posted from Miss Beth's Victory Dance here.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this is a first for Miss Beth. I'm not known for allowing dissent to my views in general--after all, this is my blog and I'll rant as I like.

However, I have a very dear friend, well educated, articulate (heckuva computer whiz as well) who is absolutely true-blue American to the core. We do have occasional disagreements on some issues, but nothing explosive because we are comfortable in our disagreements and can conduct ourselves in an adult fashion, we can have a rousing good discussion and learn from each other. To that end, I am more than willing to give her "dissent time" and ask you to really read what she has to say--this isn't just talking points, and she's not a fringe lunatic. THIS is how different view points should be presented--and hopefully learned from. Hopefully, too, my friend will allow her dissent to be presented here regularly.

By the way, did I mention she lived in Alaska for awhile, so she has some actual "working knowledge" we (or at least I) don't have on the issue of Gov. Palin? She has a better working knowledge of the actualities; unlike most people who can claim to have lived in Alaska during that relevant time, I know she actually did. She has the credibility, whereas people in a comment thread lose that credibility simply from anonymity.

To that end, I present my friend, Sadie Adams.

September 2, 2008 - Tuesday Sarah Palin is the noose around McCain’s political neck: AKA Insult Me Some More ’08

I am smack dab in the middle of the demographic of middle-class, educated, independent-minded women that the Republicans (and Democrats) currently seek to court. And in response to their mistaken impression that the Hillary-loving masses have been slapped in the ass hard enough by the Obama-gods that these intelligent though oft-times vocally rabid voting women will about-face and turn their votes to the "dark side" in response to Hill's failure to win the nomination, the Republican "smarty-pants" have brought inexperienced, backwoods, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the ticket to fight the conservative fight alongside our infamous Arizona political maverick, John McCain? I, for one, am insulted. A vice-presidential candidate has never been a "make it or break it" deal for me, but the spit in the eye of what seems to be the "spoonful of sugar" to help the stale old Republican political "medicine go down", is utterly disgusting to me.

Now don't get me wrong... I am not on the front lines of the Democratic Party's political battle. I am not one to be counted among the flock of Kool-aid drinkin' Obama lovin' sheep. Even as eloquently as he spoke during his recent nomination acceptance speech at the DNC convention in Denver, I will never vote for Barack Hussein Obama (AKA "God/Allah's Answer to All Our Prayers"). His communist/socialistic tendencies are all too reminiscent of the early rantings from our island neighbor/dictator to the south, Fidel Castro, for my taste. Couple this with Obama's rise from relative political and managerial Nowhere-land, I can't stomach the idea of this radically liberal "poster boy for change" leading the American people, like Moses from the Bible stories, out of wandering from the desert of despair which has come to exist on the social, moral, legal, and economic landscape of today's American society. But Sarah Palin as our country's wingman to the president, face of American women, ambassador to the world, leader of our legislative branch?! Are you freakin' kidding me?!

Sarah Palin is proclaimed to be a skilled moose hunter and avid ice-fisherwoman. She is the high-school sweetheart wife to a "superstar" Alaskan snow-mobiler and a loving mother of five children: ranging from an adult son serving honorably in our military to a 4 month old newborn afflicted with Down's Syndrome. I have to admit she isn't all that hard on the eyes and I'll be damned if she doesn't look like she just walked off the set having nabbed the role of some "Hot For Teacher" babe in an 80s rock music video. But does Sarah Palin's résumé really do well to balance out the Republican argument against Obama's obvious lack of solid and proven experience to qualify himself to lead our nation, which has always been McCain's ringer retort?

Even Obama was smart enough to go along with the DNC money-wielding politicos to pick a VP candidate with experience. Joe Biden got his start in Washington politics while Obama was probably still a pimple-popping, wave-surfing, binge-drinking, pot-smoking preteen back in Hawaii (even if it does scream "bullshit!" at his own "time for change" mantra). And so, the RNC's response is what?! Our 70-something year-old straight-talking and venerated war hero is paired up with the gun-toting beauty queen with heart of gold and a redneck brood of kids to go with it. I'll bet the National Enquirer is standing in the streets of the town of Wasilla (a small town, east of Anchorage - population approximately 8500 – where, as mayor, Palin "cut her teeth on the political polls" before becoming governor) just drooling at the chance to pay a measly $10,000 to the first toothless wonder in exchange for any viable yet juicy tidbit about the virtually unknown Sarah "Annie Oakley" Palin.

Sarah Palin, though seemingly a well-rounded and well-spoken "All American Girl" from what little us "Lower 48-ers" know and have heard from her, is NOT my idea of a viable and experienced running mate to ANY candidate for president, regardless of party affiliation, nor should she be slated to be considered the voice of the intelligent, middle-class American woman.

I, too, lived in the Last Frontier for a time myself. After driving over 4,000 miles of treacherous road from my home in Arizona, I lived in Alaska long enough:
- to earn a decent wage, making nearly double in one year than I had in the previous year in Arizona doing the same job, and pay off some bills, even despite the increased cost of living;
- to take out a fishing pole and troll for salmon with my two daughters in a small boat along the glacial silt-filled rivers and fjords, surrounded by majestic snow-capped mountains;
- to wonder at the moose trolling around among the residential neighborhoods and city streets in Alaska's larges city (which swelled to a "whopping" 250,000 or so people during mid-summer);
- to be cautious enough when venturing out exploring into the vast forests and mountains to remember to bring along a shotgun and plenty of ammunition (aware of the presence of hungry bears);
- to endure (as a desert rat accustomed to 60-70 degree Christmases) one of the harshest winters the city of Anchorage had seen in years;
- to escape death just before Thanksgiving with only nine staples to my scalp and a cracked kneecap, injured when my vehicle slid backwards, downhill, about 100 yards, then rolled over and landed upside down in a ditch in the icy, snow-filled mountainside;
- to learn first-hand, working for a reputable law firm, about the ins and outs of the oil industry (as much from the big oil perspective as from the environmentalist's perspective) and fishing industry;
- and to get a literal "bird's eye's view" of the landscape and throngs of wolves, and caribou, and bears which outnumber humans so greatly in the vast and great last frontier;

But none of this translates to experience to stand toe-to-toe with political heads-of-state of foreign governments and to preside over our legislature or to possibly step in as Leader of the Free World and Commander-in-Chief of our military (should any ill fate happen upon our elderly statesman McCain, while possible serving as President), does it?

Picking Sarah Palin to try and bolster the conservative agenda is political suicide for the Republicans and for any chance that the so-called conservatives might have had to keep Obama from "preaching his way into the White House" with his socialist rhetoric, and letting the deep pockets of the MoveOn-type Libs get a final stranglehold over our nation.

The Dems are getting at what some people at first, undoubtedly, thought HAD to be a joke when "The Mav" made the announcement on Friday of "his" VP pick. The gossip train has been given all the fuel it needs to grind it's way right over McCain's pasty and war-scarred back, right on into the Metro station closest to Michelle Obama's freshly painted, pretty, new WhiteBlack House.

I sat at work today, surrounded by the jabbering of the liberal, elitist, cream-of-the-crop, well-educated and highly overpaid lawyers that I work with (actually for, since we "pee-ons" who actually do most of the work they take credit for are truly not, nor ever will be, equal to them). These same persons who sell their souls daily to represent big business all in the name of the mighty dollar that they earn as a result, while piously preaching and seething about their rich clients' injustices on the world and "everyday, little man" behind their backs, were giddy and excited today in their chatter about McCain and the RNC's choice of Sarah Palin for the Republican VP running mate. And who can blame them for their exuberance?

Palin has brought with her to the Republican stage:
- a political scandal of allegations of abuse of power while having only been Governor of Alaska since 2006;
- a very, very, very short list of political "accomplishments" before her current gubernatorial position, including beating out a Republican "political giant" who had faced some scandal of his own and being the mayor of a very small town;
- and a baby sadly afflicted with Down's Syndrome, which might not be hers, but actually her grandchild, born from her 17-year-old daughter, now pregnant (again?) out of wedlock.

I am sure the Enquirer will find something more for the Dems to complete their "wet dream" with. Regardless of what truth any of the produced gossip might actually bear, I cannot argue with the "oh-My-GOSH" truth of the fact that Sarah Palin has got to be the most ridiculous choice that the Republicans could have pushed McCain to endorse. Mitt Romney with his painted face, plastered hair and strict Mormon conservative base would have at least helped to lock in the conservative vote, regardless of any of the differences between the former presidential hopeful and his previous rival, now nominated candidate/victor, John McCain. But a "Beauty and the Beast" ticket? What the hell is the RNC thinking?

As a woman, I am insulted. I cannot and will not stupidly chant the party's spin on this one. I am an independent, intelligent and VOTING woman. I vote in every election cycle, even when there isn't a presidential position at stake. I take my daughters to stand in line at the polls while I wait, sometimes hours, to make my mark and complete my civic duty. I try to teach them of the importance of having a vote and in taking a stance on issues important to our everyday lives and putting people into office to represent the common good. But in thinking that Sarah Palin is the answer to bring in the "minority" woman's vote they are attempting to court in the wake of Hillary's sunken hopes for the first woman to steer the American ship from the helms of the Oval Office (well, from behind, not below the desk, anyhow) – the Republicans have got their read on American women all wrong this time, baby! They should re-draw the Republican Party's mascot elephant's ass with a big ole' Democratic Donkey hoof-print on it now. Shit! I'd even give Monica Lewinsky credit for more experience than I would Sarah Palin. (But Ms. Altoids wears blue, and not red, so I guess she couldn't have made it to the Republican short list, could she?)

Sarah Palin should gracefully bow out now while the "gettin' is good", and none of us would fault her for it. Sad as it is to say it, the rigors of a campaign trail, as they choke on Obama's dust in the polls and as the Obama lovin' media rips her and her family's still somewhat good name to shreds, will prove to be too much for the Alaska girl and her December romance hero in the end. Mrs. Palin needs to go home and earn her stripes before this intelligent, All American girl will even think to stand in line and consider her worthy of the No. 2 spot in my nation's government. She should go home and take care of that sweet baby who is going to be challenged enough in his lifetime, without the added difficulty of missing some very crucial bonding time early on, and go encourage that 17-year-old daughter to put down the fishing pole, and press forward, baby in tow, to complete a college education so that she can adequately support herself and unborn child in the future, head held high. Mrs. Palin, go sit down in the Governor's mansion and listen to your state's workers and citizens to learn about the challenges of governing from all angles, from top to bottom.

A pretty face and some pretty rhetoric, even if touted and paraded by the likes of Hannity and Rush, will not stupify this independent woman into "plugging my nose and voting McCain". I'll not be placing my vote for President this year - Not if I have the choice of Old Man McCain and his lovely assistant, What's Her Name versus Barack Hussein Obama and his unproud, American wife and white-haired friend Joe, who has a sad case of verbal diarrhea from time to time. I'd rather eat glacial silt for breakfast. I’ll let the dogs just fight this one out without me this time.

Now… where's my TiVo remote? That 30-second fast forward button might be just enough to bypass those "I'm Dodo Bird, and I approve this message" ads and get to those really cool Geico gecko and caveman commercials and the next season’s episodes of Heroes to begin. That should keep the bile down and me entertained at least until it's time for the World Series, when I can start ranting again about overpaid, steroid-junkie athletes again.

Republicans mocked Howard Dean for many years, but this Marc Ambinder post on Ted Stevens indictment should force some reconsideration...

Much of the territory has been hashed out, but his indictment on charges stemming from his alleged lies to federal investigators will almost certainly add a Senate seat to the Democratic column.  It will almost certainly demoralize Republicans in Alaska and excite Democrats. It means that the Obama campaign will put more resources into flipping the state. It means that any senator who got Vecco money -- Norm Coleman? -- will be called to account. 

I am reminded of this story by Matt Bai (also mentioned in his book, The Argument) about Howard Dean spending DNC money (and frustrating Democratic Party insiders) hiring staffers in Alaska...

In paying for two new staffers, Dean had, virtually overnight, doubled the size of Alaska’s beleaguered state party, which used to consist of only an executive director and a part-time fund-raiser. But now, as Dean considered the vastness of the state’s landscape, he decided that one organizer wasn’t enough.

[...]

That night, after meeting with Dean at the sad little storefront office that houses the state party, Alaska’s party chairman, Jake Metcalfe, announced to 400 assembled Democrats at a fund-raiser that Dean had just promised to hire an additional organizer for the state. The ballroom erupted in grateful applause as Dean sat there beaming. The members of his staff, gently rolling their eyes, began calling back to Washington, warning the political staff that they would need to find the money for yet another salary in, of all places, Alaska.

Just two years later, Democrats are competitive in, of all places, Alaska.

Three in four likely voters – 74 percent – support offshore drilling for oil in U.S. coastal waters and more than half (59 percent) also favor drilling for oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.