Andrew Cuomo

WAS KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND A GOOD CHOICE BY NEW YORK GOVERNOR DAVID PATERSON?

U.S. Senator Kirsten Giilibrand When it was first announced that New York Governor David Paterson was appointing Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Secretary of State Hillary Roddam Clinton in the U.S. Senate, many of you may have been saying Kirsten who?

And with good reason.

She is little known to most living outside of the upstate New York region and has only served one full term in Congress after defeating incumbent Republican Congressman John Sweeney.

Gillibrand’s Congressional district is a fairly conservative oriented district, especially when it comes to fiscal issues and getting elected in her district is an intricate process that involves a great deal of bridge building. You see, the 20th Congressional district takes in parts of 10 different New York counties spanning the Adirondacks, Catskills and Hudson Valley.

Winning in her district takes a great deal of deal making. It involves a lot of ring kissing in the rough and tumble world of New York politics. To win in the 20th district you need to get your parties nomination and in this case that involves the countyGillibrands Congressional District Covered Parts of Columbia, Dutchess, Delaware, Essex, Greene, Otsego, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Warren, and Washington Counties chairmen and county committees of not one or two, but ten different counties.

That’s a lot of favors to commit to.

So the fact that Gillibrand was able to win her party’s nomination for anything in the 20th district says volumes about her political savvy.

Which is probably one reason why Paterson picker Gillibrand to replace Hillary.

Paterson is going to need a great deal of political savvy to win election to governor in his own right.

Which leads us to another reason why Paterson may have appointed Gillibrand to the U.S. Senate. Kirsten Gillabrand’s selection may have been one of the first steps in Patersons reelection effort, an effort that he will need plenty of help in.

Gillibrand happens to be pretty conservative for a modern day Democrat, which is one reason why Paterson has been catching a lot of flack for picking her. One liberal columnist predicts that both Paterson and Gillibrand will be kicked out of office in the next election.

In the case of David Paterson, I find that funny. Paterson the son of well known Manhattan liberal State Senator, Basil Paterson, is the epitome of the liberal ideology who was born and raised in a liberal political family.

As a politician he is a pro-quota, pro-abortion, pro-spending, pro-tax, pro illegal immigrant, anti school voucher, liberal. He is as liberal as they come, yet because he selected Gillibrand, liberal activists want him out.

Well the joke is on them.

He’s theirs and he is there to stay. He is staying mainly due to the fact that he appointed Kirsten Gillibrand. New York Governor David Paterson

The appointment of Gillibrand was a deal.

It was a deal that would help take , of all things, pressure from conservatives off of Paterson. Not conservative thinking people but New York Conservative Party members.

You see New York’s Conservative party is not really a political party.

It is a patronageorganization. They endorse candidates based upon how many jobs they can get for the endorsement.

If the Democrat can offer more than the Republican than the Democrat gets the endorsement. New York Conservative party officials come across principled especially on the issue of abortion. But when it comes to jobs they abandon their abortion stance quicker then the time it takes for a terrorist on a suicide mission to blow themselves up.

That is why there are so many Democrats who run with the Conservative endorsement. Many of them are pro-choice Democrats and many of them have at least 3 or 4 Conservatives on their payroll.

Kirsten Gillibrand did not have the Conservative party endorsement last time around, but expect her to have it when she runs for re-election as a senator.

Although she is pro-abortion, she has a great deal of conservative positions including on the issue of the right to bear arms. On fiscal matters, as a congresswoman she is more conservative than many Republicans. She voted against the last few bailout programs proposed.

So there is room for cover for Conservative party members in their potential support for her but if that is the case, be sure to also look at her payroll and the conservative party members that will be on it.

As for Paterson, he most likely got a handshake and a promise from Conservative party officials who in turn for appointing Gillibrand to the senate, promise two things..

  1. Not to cross endorse the Republican nominee for Governor and
  2. To run only token opposition against Paterson on the Conservative party line.

That could help split the Republican vote and give Paterson some breathing room in his reelection effort and allows him to appeal to his now peeved liberal base.

Such a deal works well for Paterson. By appointing the congresswoman whose district garnered support from 10 different counties, Paterson probably ended up better than if he appointed Andrew Cuomo.

I mean after all, Andrew Cuomo was not going to get all that far against Paterson, the state’s first African- American Governor. Andrew Cuomo already opposed the states first black candidate for Governor, Carl McCall, who once won the nomination but lost the elecetion to Republican Governor George Pataki.

 Rudy GiulianiFor Andrew Cuomo to oppose a sitting Governor who happens to also be black, would be suicidal.

So Paterson is in a good position despite the bad state of affairs in New York and his bad decisions as governor.

The only real threat that could present itself is if Rudy Giuliani were to run. But if he was to run, the conservative split, set in motion by the Gillabrand appointment, has already helped to make it that much tougher for Rudy to beat Paterson and the same would hold true if he ran against Gillibrand for the U.S. Senate.

 Conservatives hate Rudy Giuliani. He refuses to play ball with them and so they refused to endorse any of the three times that he ran for Mayor of New York City and if he runs for Governor, they are more than likely to find themselves running against him again.

So the bottom line is that the Gillibrand appointment was not a stupid one.

It was a smart choice.

It was a choice that gained Paterson some respect from voters because of his bucking the establishment and not picking any heir apparent. It also did not anger moderate voters who would have held some animosity for Paterson for picking some leftwing radical. Stupid. I think not!

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punchline-politics

 

Three contractors are bidding to fix a broken fence at the Governor's Mansion...

...in Springfield, Illinois; One from Chicago, another from Tennessee, & a third from Kentucky. They all go with to examine the fence.

The Tennessee contractor takes out a tape measure and does some measuring, then works some figures with a pencil.

"Well", he says, "I figure the job will run about $900: $400 for materials, $400 for my crew and $100 profit for me."

The Kentucky contractor also does some measuring and figuring, then says, 'I can do this job for $700: $300 for materials, $300 for my crew and $100 profit for me.'

The Chicago contractor doesn't measure or figure, but leans over to and whispers, '$2,700.'

The Governor is incredulous and whispers back, 'You didn't even measure like the other guys! How did you come up with such a high figure?'

The Chicago contractor whispers back, '$1000 for me, $1000 for you, and we hire that guy from Kentucky to fix the fence.'

'Done!' replies . And that my friends, is how it all works in Illinois politics!!!Submitted by Bill, Ardmore, Pa.

RedWhiteBlue.gif picture by kempite

 

New York's next Senator?

Just one year ago it would be hard to have imagined the obscure Lt. Gov of New York, David Paterson, having the power to make or break a national level political career.

But with Eliot Spitzer and now most likely Hillary Clinton out of statewide office, Governor Paterson now gets to decide who will be the next great NY state politician.

The Albany Times-Union has a story about the choices facing Governor Paterson. He has taken his own name out of contention, but there are plenty of ambitious Democrats eager for a move up in the world. http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=742556

A few crass political calculations come to mind here. Appointing Attorney General Andrew Cuomo removes a possible primary opponent to Paterson. Having failed in 2002 to win the gubernatorial nod, Cuomo may try again; but as of yet Paterson's ratings are pretty good and he obviously would have a huge bloc vote supprting him in a primary race. 

The other element here is the 2010 NY Democrat ticket violates the time honored "balanced ticket" approach.  David Paterson and Chuck Schumer are both from NYC; which casts less than 30% of the statewide vote.  Therefore there will be great interest in considering an upstate/suburban candidate; especially as Daniel Moynihan and Hillary Clinton were perceived as non-NYC candidates and the state legislature is now controlled by NYC Democrats.

The other demographic concerns are that the huge white Catholic bloc in NY (which frequently votes Republican) may not have a prominent statewide Democrat candidate in '10; nor is there a woman incumbent seeking re-election statewide for the Dems in '10. Hispanic  political figures are also arguing it is time for a statewide Hispanic officeholder, but a candidate like Nydia Velasquez might struggle upstate trying to hold the seat.

Given those considerations, don't be shocked if suburban Albany Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand    gets picked by Paterson. She fits all the necessary balancing factors as an upstate catholic woman, who has a centrist record for a Northeastern house Democrat (She is a Blue Dog). She also has been a fundraising machine in her races.   

Gillibrand would need to resign her Republican oriented house seat.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district_election,_2008  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district, but we might do well to get a stronger candidate  for the special election than millionaire Sandy Treadwell, a rather low intensity figure.

One thing we should now be painfully aware of is the Democrats have stopped doing things for self-gratification that don't make political sense.  I think David Paterson will help himself with his senate appointment; even if it is perceived as yet another step away from vocal leftism.  

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