(We're pleased to welcome to these pages Kristen Soltis, director of policy research at the Winston Group, a Republican polling firm. -Patrick)
With Senator Obama claiming a majority of pledged delegates and an increasing number of superdelegates, it appears that Senator Obama's path to the Democratic nomination is clear; his nomination almost a foregone conclusion. (Just ask Tim Russert!)
But polling data is a fun thing, and this morning's two newest national polls show Obama slightly behind McCain or running even with him, while Hillary Clinton is ahead of McCain in both polls.
The Gallup five-day running average from their tracking shows McCain ahead of Obama, 47-44. Yet in a head to head with Clinton, McCain loses by three, 45-48. Take a look at the trending throughout May - Obama and McCain swap in and out of the top spot with each other four times in this one month alone, while Clinton never once gives McCain the edge.