Diane Benson

The day of reckoning is here for candidates and four ballot measures in the Last Frontier. Polls are open from 7 AM to 8 PM local (11 AM to 12 AM EST). The first results come in at 9 PM local (1 AM EST) ... you bet I'm staying up for this one. I might even nap through dinner time and get up to catch Hillary's speech beforehand.

Here's a summary of the races to watch ... I won't be endorsing candidates, but I will speak out against three of the initiatives. If you want to see a smattering of Alaskan ads, here they are.

U.S. Senate - Republican Primary: With a trial coming up in late September, Ted Stevens is still the favorite in this primary among six other candidates. Former legislator and bank president David Cuddy, who ran against Stevens in 1996, has been seen as the alternative; but his campaign has been quite unexciting. Vic Vickers moved up from Florida and claimed residency starting this January and started running anti-corruption ads; rumor has it that he was a Democrat plant. Think what you may of him, but after the indictment, Stevens came out swinging and the amount of positive response to Ted was nothing short of amazing.

U.S. Senate - Democratic Primary: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will run away with this one, but not without getting bruised by former GOP legislator, Alaska Republican Moderate Party leader and now registered Democrat Ray Metcalfe who has been exposing Begich's ties with local real estate developers.

Congress At-Large - Republican Primary: This is the race to watch! Lt. Governor Sean Parnell had been the early favorite, but Kodiak State Rep. Gabrielle Ledoux has run three admittedly good ads which put her from 1% to 10% of the vote in the latest polls. It might be because of that that Don Young and Sean Parnell are within the margin of error. While Sean has received the endorsement of Gov. Sarah Palin, I tend not to put a lot of stock into any endorsement, no matter how popular the endorser. Plus, I'm actually more impressed with Don's ads than I am with Sean's. The Anchorage Daily News' gossip column called Don vs. Sean "Mr. Bluster vs. Mr. Bland."

Congress At-Large - Democratic Primary: This pits establishment candidate Ethan Berkowitz against Diane Benson, who received 40% of the vote against Don Young two years ago. Berkowitz was minority leader for many years in the State House, and ran for Governor two years ago before dropping down before the filing deadline to be Tony Knowles' lite gov candidate. Haven't seen any polling, but Berkowitz seems to be the favorite. I won't be surprised if Benson keeps it close.

Last night, KTUU (the NBC affilliate in Anchorage) held two separate primary election debates for Alaska's lone congressional seat, one for the two Democrats and the other for the three Republicans. I don't have the whole debate yet, but you can see some detailed coverage from the Anchorage Daily News and KTUU. (Sidenote: The ADN and KTUU essentially have a media duopoly in Alaska, and both are as liberal as you get in a red state.)

By now everybody knows two of the three Republican candidates: incumbent Don Young and Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. The unknown factor is Gabrielle Ledoux, a former mayor of Kodiak and currently a state legislator. Although she's a long shot, and has been known to have liberal tendencies in the state legislature, Ledoux is a very good fundraiser and has been running ads statewide for three weeks. After a couple weeks of ads, her poll numbers jumped from 1% to 10% in the horserace, with most of that vote probably coming from the "anti-Don" crowd. Those who are supporting Sean Parnell are concerned.

The two Democrats who are running couldn't be any more different. Diane Benson is a Native Alaskan who has a son who was injured in Iraq. She ran against Don last year and received 40% of the vote. Although she was the former standard-bearer of the Alaska Green Party, which opposed drilling in ANWR (something that the Alaska Democratic Party won't go near), she has now modified her position. Benson seems to have a solid constituency with rural Alaskans and those within the party that feels that she deserves the nomination based on the last cycle's result.

Ethan Berkowitz is a former five-term legislator, four of those terms as Democratic Minority Leader in the State House. He is the odds on favorite. When I was talking to a reporter whose family is involved in the Alaska Democratic Party, she described Ethan Berkowitz as essentially a carbon copy of former Governor Tony Knowles and current senate candidate Mark Begich: someone who comes off as a right-leaning moderate Democrat in order to be pragmatic, but is actually very liberal at heart.

The primary is on August 26th. Sarah Palin's primary victory two years ago produced a 35% turnout, one of the highest primary turnouts in state history. Two contested house races as well as plenty of ballot initiatives will probably get 35-40% out again. Watch closely!