Dino Rossi

The rematch of the 2004 gubernatorial contest that proved to be the closest such election in American history is shaping up to be just as competitive as mail-in ballots start arriving in most voters’ mailboxes later this week.

Public polling shows the race all knotted up, with the incumbent Christine Gregoire still below the important 50% threshold (note: there are no 3rd party candidates on the General Election ballot as there was in 2004). And pay attention to this from the write-up of the latest SurveyUSA poll:

Most striking: SurveyUSA is polling in 28 states. In state after state, as Democrat Barack Obama has run up the score at the top of the ticket, down-ticket Democrats have benefited. In other states, a rising Democratic tide is floating the boats of Democratic candidates for Senator, Governor, and Attorney General. Not in Washington State. Dino Rossi, rare among Republicans running for statewide office in 2008, is not being dragged down by John McCain. Christine Gregoire is not being pumped up by Barack Obama.

All signs currently point to a gubernatorial race in Washington state that is eerily close to the 2004 results, which produced the closest such contest in US history.

 - The latest public poll?  A 48-48 tie from Rasmussen.

 - The RCP average for the race?  Another 48-48 tie.

 - Pollster.com's trend line?  A margin of 0.9% for Rossi.

It's an amazing electoral brawl.  One difference, however, is the state of the race at this juncture in the election cycle.

In 2004 Dino Rossi was a little known state Senator who ran an excellent campaign, running down the favored Christine Gregoire (then the sitting state AG) toward the end of the race.  Public polling in 2004 showed Gregoire with a clear lead in early October rather than the current dog fight.

Such standing is not inconsequential given that the lion's share of state voters will begin receiving their ballots by the end of next week in what will largely be a mail-in election.  Within that construct, it should be noted that political observers have identified that later mail-in ballots in Washington state have recently favored Republicans as the counting moves from early to late mail-in ballots (more background the true political junkies here).  In short, Republicans and Rossi have a history of closing races well in the Evergreen State.

All to say that despite the terrible headwinds blowing against Republican candidates this year, Dino Rossi is in a better position to win in a blue state in 2008 than he was in the amazingly close race of 2004.

A round-up of recent events in the Evergreen State gubernatorial contest:

1)  Christine Gregoire's controversial stem cell ads have been chased from the TV airwaves, with the Tacoma News Tribune following the Seattle Times in castigating them.  An effective counter from Dino Rossi probably didn't hurt either.

2)  A late-in-the-game state Democratic party lawsuit to force ballots to declare Rossi a "Republican" rather than the "Prefers GOP Party" label currently used was promptly tossed out.  Background:  in Washington's somewhat unique "Top Two" primary system, candidate's declare their party preference in language of thier choosing; Gregoire appears on the ballot as "Prefers Democratic Party."

Dino Rossi embarked last fall on a rematch of the now famous 2004 Washington Governor's race by focusing on a number of issues at the fore of local voters' minds in recent years, including education and transportation.  The events of 2008, however, have opened new and fertile territory for Rossi.

A huge spike in state spending under now incumbent Christine Gregoire coupled with declining tax revenues (another victim of the housing market's downward slide), has left the state with an estimated $2.7 billion budget deficit looming.

Gregoire's response?  Ignore it, repeatedly.  That includes apperances on the campaign trail and in responding to a question on the deficit posed via YouTube's YouChoose08.

Rossi's response is summed up in his latest ad:

For the first time in this campaign, Washington gubernatorial candidates Dino Rossi and Christine Gregoire are squared off in directly competing TV ads, marking a new phase in the contest...even though neither campaign is doing much to talk about the spots besides popping them up on YouTube.

The first TV ads from the major candidates in the Washington state Governor's race are out, showcasing a compelling anti-Establishment twist from challenger Dino Rossi:

There is much to like about the ad, including the anti-status quo messaging in Washington state, where Democrats have held the Governor's office since 1985 and have been edging toward Massachusetts-like majorities in the Legislature over the least several election cycles.  Rossi, just as he did in 2004, is emphasizing his own personable nature, running as an affable, forward-thinking candidate.  That's usually good strategy in any case, but exceptionally useful running as a Republican in a blue state in 2008.

Christine Gregoire's campaign is now on its second radio ad, which can be found buried on her campaign blog in a July 7th entry (hint to the campaign staff: permalinks are a beautiful thing in the blogosphere). Much as with the first ad, more time is spent attacking Dino Rossi than anything else.

Eric Earling has been on the WA-GOV's race like white on rice. This is our best opportunity to elect a Republican all-star in a pickup this cycle, and we need to help Dino Rossi. -Patrick

Interesting developments in Republican Dino Rossi’s repeat contest against now sitting Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire:

1) Democrats Are The Ones Taking Heat in the Press for Ethnic Slurs

The State Democratic Party managed to secure itself some widespread, off-message PR for its web video attack on Italian-American Dino Rossi, set to the tune of the Sopranos. Though the party changed the tune accompanying the video, the state’s largest newspaper, the Seattle Times, weighed in with a Sunday editorial chiding both the deed and the lack of contrition. Thus, on the heels of Democrats complaining about building industry funded ads against Gregoire, Rossi is the one who comes out looking aggrieved.

2) Headlines Implying Corruption Aren’t Directed at the Republican

The defense employed by Washington Governor Christine Gregoire and her allies in defending her actions regarding a gaming compact with the state's Native American tribes has been to say the goal was to stop a massive expansion of tribal gaming. The facts don't indicate that actually occurred.

[Gregoire spokesman Pearse Edwards] said she had renegotiated the 2005 agreement that included revenue sharing in an attempt to keep gambling from expanding too quickly and after listening to concerns from a wide range of groups, including other tribes.

Likewise, Democratic spokesman Kelly Steele's recent appearance on Seattle talk radio station KVI's "The Commentators" show was replete with references to Gregoire not wanting to turn the Evergreen State into Nevada.

One might chuckle at the notion of Sin City coming north to the meet the nanny state favored by many elected officials in Seattle and Olympia, yet gaming itself continues to expand significantly since the compact was negotiated.