Election Night

Here's how things will shape up tonight here at The Next Right.

Hopefully around 8 p.m. after attending some familial duties, I'll begin obsessively live-blogging returns and calling states in the Presidential race. I'll be using Cover It Live, Twitter (follow @PatrickRuffini), and possibly UStream if the feeling hits me.

I rely solely and purely on county returns. I'll be analyzing the swing from 2004 in key counties and combining 2008 votes with 2004 turnout models, start to build increasingly accurate models of final results, usually well before the media will call a state. (The only place they'll have the edge is in blowout states they'll call based on exits.)

How accurate is this model? In 2004, I knew something was seriously wrong with the exit polls by 7:30. I knew Florida was in the bag by 9 p.m. And I knew Ohio was very likely ours by 10:30 p.m. Contemporaneous news accounts suggested that The Architect came to these conclusions at about the same time. Just sayin'.