electoral strategy

It would seem that listening to the right people is crucial now for the Republican party--or, really, conservatives.   Much of the mainstream, mostly printed and telvised media is constantly saying that only a broader, open, more liberal Republican Party will be a winning Republican party.  A few things are problematic about this assesment. 

For one, listening to the other side is only a good idea if they don't know your listening.  How many times does James Carville go out on CNN and talk about his new 40yr book and actually give advice to conservatives that will help them?

Secondly, liberals will always be better liberals than conservatives.  Becoming like the winners if often a good idea, but not when it compromises who you are and what you stand for.  The liberals won big on a liberal platform, so becoming more liberal only means that conservatives will be the second best bunch of liberals out there.  Or, they will be irrelevent.  Maybe they seem irrelevent now, but standing up for what you believe in, articulately presenting alternatives to President Obama's liberalism, and waiting for it to go wrong--since as a conservative you believe it will indeed go wrong--is much better than becoming redundant.  

Finally, along the same lines, the type of Republican we are being advised to be looks just like our last candidate.  Senator McCain was beaten badly, and did not manage (I realize it was too soon to fully do this anyway) to seperate himself from President Bush.  The "more liberal" Republican got pounded.  Yet, we are constantly encouraged to emulate something like the McCain campaign if we want to continue the life of the GOP.  This doesn't make any sense.  (Morover, if you consider that fact the McCain was even somewhat close in an election following a historically unpopular President, two wars, a rapidly falling economy and a huge media push towards Obama, it stands to reason that the American people aren't as liberal as the last election made them appear to be.  A combination of bad luck [the economy], really bad communication, and some dishonest Republicans had a lot more to do with Obama's win than a huge liberal revolution). 

Republicans--conservatives--need to clearly and compellingly communicate conservative principles, principles with which the American people still identify, despite thier current hope in President Obama.  If conservatives belive they are right on the issues, like the economy, then they must also believe that the President's policies will fail, will hurt the country, and that the American people will recognize this and look for an alternative.  The alternative should be the party that has been offering smart, practical, persuasive ideas the whole time. 

Arnie is coming to Ohio on Halloween to support McCain

http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainnation/EventDetails.aspx?guid=4fc8d1a9-30a2-467c-ad46-31f7732132c9&party=4fc8d1a9-30a2-467c-ad46-31f7732132c9&zip=63368&dist=10&ptype=00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000

I do not know if he will tell the crowd whether he is "a friend of Sarah Palin"...

that might get a bit eerie

Minnesota may turn out to be the most promsing of all the "blue" states, barring perhaps the traditional McCain playground of New Hampshire. A recent poll shows McCain within 5 points there and Coleman regaining the lead for the Senate

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/688a8abb-f1a6-4ef1-a588-63fcb2b3bed1

Now MN's 10 EV's aren't PA's 21, but it still seems like PA is further out of reach than this despite immense effort brought to bear by the McCaniacs.  Besides, Obama has pretty much thought MN was in his corner previously.

MN is also a state where Palin's outdoorswomen background could be expected to be a plus; besides she sounds like the police chief in this famous movie. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fargo_(film).

It will be interesting to see if McCain or Palin make any appearances here over the last week. Certaintly Norm Coleman and Michelle Bachmann could use the help in the final days.

This might be a contrarian take on my Senate-first strategy, but I wholly agree with this. The fact is that going from -8 to -4 in the Presidential race may end up saving more House and Senate seats than squabbling at the margins of a 1-2 point Presidential race. The range of possible outcomes is vaster than it was two weeks ago, and we must fight on the beaches, and in the landing grounds, and in the fields, and in the streets. -Patrick

In recent days, people who are paid to know more about politics than me are openly suggesting we treat the final weeks of this campaign as a salvage operation.  See here and here. 

Now I'm not going to go down the Hugh Hewitt "we got them right where we want em" road. We are facing a tough uphill climb out of a deep hole. But climb we must.

For a number of reasons, we need to look at this race like we are trying to land a crippled A-4 on a pitching carrier deck (Senator McCain might actually have some experience with this).  Now the normal thought would be as soon as one hit the deck , then one would throttle down to slow up the plane and ease the landing.

You don't do that. To land, you need to hope you catch the arrestor wires. If you don't catch the wires, you fly off the end of the deck, and you better have enough airspeed not to stall out and land in the drink.

The analogy here is we have a limited chance of catching the "wires" election day, but we'd best be going full throttle to keep the Republican plane in the air if we don;t land.

Let me set forth the reasons:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election

We might have a vote to pick up in in Maine.

Rassmussen reports the Obama lead in ME down to 4 points, and Palin has been very well received there.

A note on ME. It splits its 4 EV's ; 2 to the statewide winner, and 1 for each Congressional district. The 1st district (metro Portland) is more urban and Democratic, while the 2nd District is huge and rural  and voted for Kerry by only a 6 point edge.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine%27s_2nd_congressional_district 

I would suspect that  Palin's lifestyle plays a lot better in rural ME than in the urban areas, meaning it is likely that should this state only narrowly voted Obama, McCain would carry the 2nd District.   

Note to McCain team: think Sarah at a hangar rally in Bangor.

The McCain campaign;s schdule for Monday should confirm they are making a serious push for PA's 21 electoral votes.  They have two events planned: a town meeting in Scranton and a rally in Media (suburban Philadelphia)

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Calendar/Default.aspx

As we well know, Scranton is the epicenter of "bitter" PA , a Hillary Clinton stronghold and the longago birthplace of Joe Biden.. While generally conservative, Lackawanna County is traditionally Democratic. In 2004 it voted by a 59,000 to 45,000 margin for John Kerry. In 1988, the last time the GOP carried PA, Lackawanna county gave Dukakis only a 3,000 vote plurality. Team Mac would like to emulate that sort of performance.

Delaware County, the site of the rally, is one of the close-in suburban counties which has drifted away from the GOP in recent elections.  Kerry won this county by 42,000 over Bush (57%).This was almost a complete reversal from the results 16 years earlier, when Bush 41 won nearly 60% of the vote here en route to a 51,000 vote plurality.   

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

McCain is likely to run much better in western PA than Republicans did in the 1980's, but victory in PA means bringing home wayward Republicans in SEPA suburbs.

By taking the campaign into somewhat "blue" parts of this state, the McCain team demonstrates a level of confidence that rallies the troops--much more than hangar rallies in conservative smal towns will.

In recent weeks, much has been made of the increasing perception that Barack Obama is an egomaniac.  From a spat of columns to the wonderful The One ad released by the McCain campaign, the right is getting out the message that Obama is incredibly full of himself.

By now, any good conservative is extensively familiar with the litany of delirious quotes either said by Obama about himself or that his supporters have spread.  The most famous example of his megalomania was his now famous quote, "We are the ones we have been waiting for".  This was a bit shocking for a guy who was previously viewed as at least more humble than Hillary Clinton.  But after Obama's sojourn to Germany last week, it is clear that the above quote was no fluke.  Between having all three network news anchors breathlessly cover his every step and the throngs of Germans on hand to listen to his profound platitudes, it is clear that at some point in the campaign Obama began believing his own hype.

A recent article in the Boston Globe picked up on the emerging Republican theme of Obama's arrogance.  Mentioned in the article is a poll conducted by CNN / Opinion Research Corp. that asked questions based on this particular trend.  When asked if either candidate is arrogant, 37 percent of respondents believed that Obama was arrogant while 34 percent believed that McCain was arrogant.  Another question asked if either candidate was "acting as if he had already won the election".  This one elicited a more lopsided response, as 44 percent said so of Obama compared to just 19 percent for McCain.  What I take from this is that most people think all politicians are arrogant (I agree full heartedly) and that they don't see either candidate as of yet as being more so than usual.  But I do think that a lot of people have thought to themselves "Wow, Obama is already acting like he's the President".  The goal for the right is to lead these voters from that thought to the belief that Obama has a raging ego.

On a positive note, the RNC has picked up on this trend.  They recently launched a mini-website entitled "Barack Obama Audacity Watch".  Since the site is new, it is a bit primitive, containing a bare bones design layout and minimal video (though it is priceless watching Jon Stewart exhorting his liberal audience to laugh at Obama).  But I am sure that with time it will become more substantive.  And no matter its design, it is an excellent repository of examples where Obama's head swelled too much.

The McCain campaign, the RNC, and the conservative movement need to keep this narrative going.  I am convinced that the reason that John Kerry is not the president right now is due to his statement at a town hall meeting in Wheeling, West Virginia where he delivered the immortal line “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.”  This quote, soon to be repeated in an effective Republican ad, established Kerry as a flip flopper.  Once this label began to be kicked around, a lot of undecided voters looked at Kerry and said "You know what, he does act like that commercial a lot".  Many voters felt like they couldn't trust him and he lost the election by a small margin.  What I believe is that this year's version of flip flopper can be arrogance.

Of course, there will be the predictable liberal detractors who will declare this criticism "out of bounds".  And since Obama is the first black candidate with a serious shot at the White House, any denunciation of Republican campaign tactics will inevitably contain a racial aspect.  Take for instance the ridiculous column written by John Ridley in the Huffington Post (link provided if you can bear it).  To him, the use of the word "arrogance" can only mean a evil, old white guy trying to keep down anyone who is not an old white guy.  To be sure, in the past upwardly mobile minorities were indeed called arrogant by old white guys.  But that is not the point.  Ridley totally misfires in his belief that non old white guys are immune from arrogance.  The truth is that arrogance is part of the human condition, which cuts across all ages, races, genders, and backgrounds.  My advice to the left is to keep going with this line of criticism.  Nothing will alienate moderate white voters quicker than repeatedly being called racist for any criticism of Obama.

Finally, I can think of two good outlines for an ad McCain can use to spread this message.  The first would be based off the classic fable "The Tortoise and the Hare".  It would be a retelling of this fable, only with Obama recast as the Hare and McCain filling in for the Tortoise.  McCain being the tortoise might reinforce his age and lack of excitement, but casting Obama as the Hare would strike a chord with many.  My other idea would be an ad based around football.  It would feature a runner who is breaking away from the line and is about to score a touchdown.  It would be interspersed with examples of Obama acting like he already won the election.  Then it would show the ball carrier stopping at the 10 yard line and spiking the ball.  The ball carrier would then break into a celebration dance while a defender recovers the fumble and takes it the other way.  I would definitely try to air this during ESPN's Monday Night Football telecasts, as it would resonate with the intended audience rather well.

The final state of the Big Ten Strategy is not strictly part of the Big Ten--the University of Missouri is a member of the Big 12 athletic conference.  However, the state of Missouri is politically much more similar to the states of the Great Lakes than to the states of the Great Plains.  Missouri is vital not only for its 11 electoral votes, but because it is the most typical state in the entire country.  Besides its central location along the Mississippi River, consider what else makes it so typical:

• Has voted for the winner in the Presidential election twenty-four out of the last twenty-five times (Adlai Stevenson in 1956 is the exception).
• Racially average; black population is 12%, same as the national average.  There are less Hispanics than average, though.
• Culturally diverse; there is an eastern industrial city (St. Louis), the southern part of the state is culturally southern, typical blend of urban, suburban, and rural.
• Population density is closest to the national average of any state.
• Center of the national population is located in Osage County, near the center of the state.

Missouri was one of George W. Bush's best success stories in 2000 and 2004.  Missouri, a state that voted for Bill Clinton twice, voted for Bush by 3.4 points.  In 2004, Missouri went from swing state to rout when Bush won the state by 7.2 points.  That's a greater margin than New Jersey gave John Kerry.  Kerry was limited to a mere four counties in the entire state.

However, 2006 demonstrated once again how Missouri was a bellweather state.  Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Jim Talent in the race for US Senate.  This race, along with the Webb-Allen race, flipped control of the Senate to the Democrats.  The map of which counties that McCaskill won shows the roadmap for victory for Democrats.  It will be up to Republicans to prevent a repeat of 2006.

Mickey Kaus in Slate.com http://www.slate.com/id/2195914/?from=rss#nopivot

Maybe we should pay more attention to the issues on which Obama hasn't noticeably shifted to the center. For example, 1) health care and 2) tax increases. In each case, the relevant question would seem to be: Is he sticking to his guns because a) that's what he really believes his presidency should be about, or b) the issue is so central to his coalition that changing his position would disrupt his election strategy? .

This is a good strategy for McCain as it forces Barack on defend on a fixed front, instead of bobbing and weaving and using the press to cover his flank as he wobbles across the political spectrum.

Dick Morris, who had worked with anti-Dukakis MA Democrats, made the same suggestion to Lee Atwater. He suggested that by forcing Dukakis to defend those liberal institutions he was proud of (like the ACLU) that moderate support would be run off by Dukakis's defense and Duke wouldn;t have time to get moderate on issues he wanted to. Worked in 40 states. 

I would suggest Kaus omitted two rather powerful issues here which Team Mac seems hesitant to exploit: where Obama has ptiched his tent to the Left , and is staying there: 

a) immigration http://www.barackobama.com/issues/pdf/ImmigrationFactSheet.pdf

http://youtube.com/watch?v=BZprtPat1Vk

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=4233535&page=1

b) gay marriage http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1051404.html

I donlt know why McCain doesn't aggressively get to Obama's right on these issues. It's not like he is going to get worse press, now is he?  

In the past few election cycles, Iowa has been a closely fought state.  In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush in the state by three-tenths of a percentage point, or only 4,144 votes.  There was a one point swing between 2000 and 2004, but that was enough to give Bush a seven-tenths of a point margin over John Kerry.  Because of how close this was, nine counties switched over from 2000 to 2004.  This total allowed Bush to win by a hair over 10,000 votes.  These results indicate that Iowa is one of the great swing states in the nation, and should be tightly contested.

Obama may be a stronger general election candidate here than in other Midwestern states.  Geographic proximity is the main reason.  Iowans have strong ties to Illinois and Chicago in particular.  For the majority of Iowans, Chicago is the closest big city to them (I'm not counting Des Moines as a "big city", though some may view it as truly being big).  The long time Chicago Cubs AAA team, the Iowa Cubs, has been in Des Moines.  Chicago papers are commonly found in Iowa.  For these reasons, Obama is more well known in Iowa than in other places.  He certainly showed strength in the Iowa caucuses, which was instrumental in allowing him to successfully capture the Democratic nomination.

On paper, Iowa should be a solidly Republican state.  It has one major population center in the middle of the state, a higher than average rural population, a nearly all white populaton, and one of the oldest populations in the nation.  Yet, it has been a swing state in recent years.  Why?  The best explanation is that Democrats do better in rural areas here than in most states.  Iowa is one the few places where you will find a lot of old-fashioned farm Democrats, the descendants of William Jennings Bryan.  These people feel the pinch of trying to make family farming work and are receptive to the populism of Democrats.