Evangelicals

"jro" wrote some good responses in the comments to my last post on the decline of the GOP in Colorado Springs, my hometown. I was going to post this in the comments section as well, but it grew too large. It ends with some broader-rebuilding thoughts, which are what I'd really like to hear bandied about.

Good questions. Here's my brief synopsis:

1. The military will come out strong for McCain, no question. I think that they will always be around as a viable base for GOP activity. It's in the other categories of voters we're suffering.

2. Ted Haggard is distant memory. Pastor Brady Boyd is pretty popular, as well as Pastor Ross Parsley. The evangelical community is diverse enough and has enough church outlets that the one case at New Life Church shouldn't affect it much.

3. I agree wholeheartedly that enthusiasm from the base isn't very strong. A lot of my evie friends were Huckabee supporters (barf!), and as a brief aside, anyone who thinks that Mitt has a future in the GOP party needs to spend more time looking at some in the Christian movement: anti-Mormonism is quite strong and doesn't seem to be fading anytime soon.

I think you touch on some parts of the issue with the 4-8 year window of change. I think no small part comes from some dissatisfaction with the GWB administration. For many thirtysomething evangelicals, he was their first political candidate in their lifetime to closely identify with them. To see his second term devolve into a wimpfest of moderate gestures and unconvincing speeches was disheartening. But I also think there's part of this that is more personality than politics. For many evangelicals, their issues are strictly social (marriage and abortion, mainly, with some other things like homeschooling and God-in-the-public-square stuff), and they are downright squishes when it comes to economics.

We can definitely talk about this more, but I think a key part of the Righting the GOP Ship (as good a pun as I've seen yet. Pass it on!) will be addressing the need to have more of our public officials acting as advocates for freedom/conservatism, even to our own partymembers. We can't have Denny Hastert types in leadership, who might be great at playing the game in D.C. but are enigmatic, surly, or awkward when given the chance to talk. The Left has such control of MSM that it takes special communicating talents to cut through the b.s.

This is just breaking on the Colorado Springs Gazette's website, but there are hour long lines for early voting Colorado Springs. Considering the Springs is supposed to be considered the heart of Colorado GOP action (as well as its conservative core), this isn't good news.

Why? The specifics poll sites that are overcrowded are located near the lower-income and more minority-populated neighborhoods. (I wish there was a better way to put that, it makes it sound like a ghetto, which it isn't.) In other words, the area of heavy voting today is most definitely not the region of El Paso County that is GOP-friendly and heavily evangelical.

I never thought I'd see the day that the Springs, my hometown, would become battleground territory. But evidence shows otherwise. Here's a story about Obama raising more money than McCain in the Springs. Here's Michelle Obama drawing an overflow crowd to the City Auditorium. Here's Joe Biden drawing 1,500 to a high school gym.

Sure, McCain draws people, and sure, Palin is wildly popular in evangelical circles, especially north and east of the Springs, but these Dem numbers are bad news.

I've read this site for a few months, but I'm gettin' involved now, as we will soon start to inspect the ashes of what we used to call the GOP and there will be tough questions in need of answering. For example, in re: Colorado Springs:

What does it mean? Why did it happen? I have my guesses (I think the GOP overestimates the fidelity of evanglicals to the party, for one), but please leave your guesses and theories below.

The evangelical movement is changing, and this will have real implications for the GOP. Rick Warren is replacing James Dobson as the political powerhouse of American evangelicalism. And you couldn't come up with a clearer couple of events to express that than what we have seen in the last couple of days.

Within hours of each other, John McCain and Barack Obama agree to attend a forum at Rick Warren's Saddleback Church. (NYT has the story) I suspect that the word got out, and James Dobson got in the game. The NYT's Caucus blog reported yesterday that Dobson would consider endorsing McCain and start explaining how bad Obama is.

But it is pretty clear that Warren and his issues are in the drivers seat. From the NYT:

Mike Huckabee is travelling around Africa with Cindy McCain, a bunch of Democrats, and the ONE campaign.