Gabrielle Ledoux

The final numbers are in. Congressman Don Young has won the highest turnout primary (40.6%) in Alaska's history by 304 votes. Because the margin is less than 0.5%, Sean Parnell was afforded the right to a state-funded recount. Instead, the lieutenant governor conceded today and said in a statement that because his campaign was based on "treating taxpayer dollars with more respect and greater care," the margin does not justify "an expenditure of taxpayer funds." Here's exactly how close it was:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 9901 votes - 9.34%
• PARNELL, Sean: 47891 votes - 45.19%
• YOUNG, Don: 48195 votes - 45.47%

While I still won't disclose who I voted for because of my previous position within the Alaska Republican Party, I do know there are a lot of readers and writers on The Next Right that were fans and supporters of Sean Parnell. I've made some of the following points before, but they need to be made again in order to give a full analysis of why I believe Sean Parnell lost. And, yes, like a fellow Alaskan political operative repeated to me today, "Don didn't win. Sean lost."

Almost two weeks after election day in Alaska, incumbent Congressman Don Young's lead over Lt. Governor Sean Parnell narrowed to 129 votes for the Republican nomination to the state's lone seat in the House. Here's the latest count as of 9:15 PM EST on Friday after most of the 25,000 absentee and question ballots were counted today:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 9575 votes - 9.32%
• PARNELL, Sean: 46514 votes - 45.28%
• YOUNG, Don: 46643 votes - 45.40%

Alaska has 40 state house districts, and the director of the Division of Elections says that about a dozen house districts' absentee and question ballots are yet to be counted. Additionally, absentee ballots sent from overseas will be accepted until next Wednesday, when they will be counted. It's looking more and more likely that a recount will happen ... which means another two week wait.

[By the way, if there's a tie, the election is decided by coin flip. Yes, a coin flip. It happened two years ago in the Democrat primary in Alaska State House District 39, where both candidates were tied with 767 votes, and the incumbent Democrat was knocked off by a challenger when he called tails. Ridiculous ... right?]

I originally predicted a 35 to 40% turnout in the Alaska primary back in March. With these votes in, the turnout is now 39.3%. Looks like my expectations will be exceeded ... this, along with Palin at the top of the ticket, should make every Democrat candidate, statewide to legislative, afraid for massive Republican and conservative-independent turnout in November.

# MY LAST UPDATE FOR THIS POST (I PROMISE) @ 1:35 PM Alaska, 5:35 PM Eastern #

99.77% of precincts reporting. 1 precinct left from the rural interior. Young has a 152 vote lead:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8618 votes - 9.21%
• PARNELL, Sean: 42387 votes - 45.31%
• YOUNG, Don: 42539 votes - 45.47%

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***** READING THE ABSENTEE TEA LEAVES @ 12:45 PM Alaska, 4:45 PM Eastern *****

Just talked to an operative in Alaska that was on neither side of the race, and he agreed with the previous analysis: "If Don pulls this one off, Don didn't win. Sean lost." Apparently, Parnell had around an 8 to 10 point lead this time one week ago, and then the DCCC sent out an attack mailer on Sean, as Jeff Roberts points out, and Don's campaign put out some well done TV and radio ads, like this one attacking the Club for Growth endorsement and support of the Lt. Governor.

Some on this post have blamed Gov. Huckabee and his PAC for endorsing Young, and even Ron Paul can out in support of Young. But the overestimated benefits of endorsements go both ways here. The Parnell campaign might have overestimated the power of Sarah Palin's endorsement, and the commenters below might be overestimating the power of Huckabee's endorsements. Endorsements are overrated!

But on to the future. This Anchorage Daily News item describes how the post-election day process will work in this race:

"There are also the 16,000 absentee ballots the division of elections mailed out. It has received back 7,600 of them and Gail Fenumiai, director of the state division of elections, said she didn't know how many of those have been counted. As long as the absentee ballots were postmarked Tuesday, the division will continue to count them for the next 10 days. Questioned ballots will be counted on Sept. 5."

If most of the absentee ballots haven't been counted, I would tend to give the advantage to Parnell because people have been able to send in their ballots over the past couple months, and the absentee electorate usually reflects people's opinions at the time of their vote (in these instances, when Parnell had a solid lead.) But who knows. The word is both campaigns are digging in their heels for a recount.

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**** YOUNG TAKES LEAD @ 5:15 AM Alaska, 9:15 AM Eastern ****

9 precincts left to go from rural Alaska, 97.95% reporting, and Young has taken a 145 vote lead:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8589 votes - 9.20%
• PARNELL, Sean: 42316 votes - 45.32%
• YOUNG, Don: 42461 votes - 45.48%

Unbelievable race! Ironman asks what Parnell could have done. As I say below, candidates need to introduce themselves (their story, their accomplishments, their unique qualities) rather than having a campaign based on your opponent being "Mr. Bluster" and the support of an extremely popular governor. I won't reveal who I voted for, but when you contrast yourself with your opponents, you can't just define your opponent and stop there; you have to define yourself as well.

The day of reckoning is here for candidates and four ballot measures in the Last Frontier. Polls are open from 7 AM to 8 PM local (11 AM to 12 AM EST). The first results come in at 9 PM local (1 AM EST) ... you bet I'm staying up for this one. I might even nap through dinner time and get up to catch Hillary's speech beforehand.

Here's a summary of the races to watch ... I won't be endorsing candidates, but I will speak out against three of the initiatives. If you want to see a smattering of Alaskan ads, here they are.

U.S. Senate - Republican Primary: With a trial coming up in late September, Ted Stevens is still the favorite in this primary among six other candidates. Former legislator and bank president David Cuddy, who ran against Stevens in 1996, has been seen as the alternative; but his campaign has been quite unexciting. Vic Vickers moved up from Florida and claimed residency starting this January and started running anti-corruption ads; rumor has it that he was a Democrat plant. Think what you may of him, but after the indictment, Stevens came out swinging and the amount of positive response to Ted was nothing short of amazing.

U.S. Senate - Democratic Primary: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will run away with this one, but not without getting bruised by former GOP legislator, Alaska Republican Moderate Party leader and now registered Democrat Ray Metcalfe who has been exposing Begich's ties with local real estate developers.

Congress At-Large - Republican Primary: This is the race to watch! Lt. Governor Sean Parnell had been the early favorite, but Kodiak State Rep. Gabrielle Ledoux has run three admittedly good ads which put her from 1% to 10% of the vote in the latest polls. It might be because of that that Don Young and Sean Parnell are within the margin of error. While Sean has received the endorsement of Gov. Sarah Palin, I tend not to put a lot of stock into any endorsement, no matter how popular the endorser. Plus, I'm actually more impressed with Don's ads than I am with Sean's. The Anchorage Daily News' gossip column called Don vs. Sean "Mr. Bluster vs. Mr. Bland."

Congress At-Large - Democratic Primary: This pits establishment candidate Ethan Berkowitz against Diane Benson, who received 40% of the vote against Don Young two years ago. Berkowitz was minority leader for many years in the State House, and ran for Governor two years ago before dropping down before the filing deadline to be Tony Knowles' lite gov candidate. Haven't seen any polling, but Berkowitz seems to be the favorite. I won't be surprised if Benson keeps it close.

Last night, KTUU (the NBC affilliate in Anchorage) held two separate primary election debates for Alaska's lone congressional seat, one for the two Democrats and the other for the three Republicans. I don't have the whole debate yet, but you can see some detailed coverage from the Anchorage Daily News and KTUU. (Sidenote: The ADN and KTUU essentially have a media duopoly in Alaska, and both are as liberal as you get in a red state.)

By now everybody knows two of the three Republican candidates: incumbent Don Young and Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. The unknown factor is Gabrielle Ledoux, a former mayor of Kodiak and currently a state legislator. Although she's a long shot, and has been known to have liberal tendencies in the state legislature, Ledoux is a very good fundraiser and has been running ads statewide for three weeks. After a couple weeks of ads, her poll numbers jumped from 1% to 10% in the horserace, with most of that vote probably coming from the "anti-Don" crowd. Those who are supporting Sean Parnell are concerned.

The two Democrats who are running couldn't be any more different. Diane Benson is a Native Alaskan who has a son who was injured in Iraq. She ran against Don last year and received 40% of the vote. Although she was the former standard-bearer of the Alaska Green Party, which opposed drilling in ANWR (something that the Alaska Democratic Party won't go near), she has now modified her position. Benson seems to have a solid constituency with rural Alaskans and those within the party that feels that she deserves the nomination based on the last cycle's result.

Ethan Berkowitz is a former five-term legislator, four of those terms as Democratic Minority Leader in the State House. He is the odds on favorite. When I was talking to a reporter whose family is involved in the Alaska Democratic Party, she described Ethan Berkowitz as essentially a carbon copy of former Governor Tony Knowles and current senate candidate Mark Begich: someone who comes off as a right-leaning moderate Democrat in order to be pragmatic, but is actually very liberal at heart.

The primary is on August 26th. Sarah Palin's primary victory two years ago produced a 35% turnout, one of the highest primary turnouts in state history. Two contested house races as well as plenty of ballot initiatives will probably get 35-40% out again. Watch closely!