The prevailing wind in the McCain veepstakes seems to be blowing from the north tonight From NRO's "Campaign Spot"
RedState seems awfully secure in saying that McCain's pick is Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. I wouldn't bet a lot against
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDI5NzUzMGJiMmZmOGNiNjc2YTIzMjZjOGEyMDNiYjE=
RedState is busy running a dossier dump on the Minnesota Governor. I'm not going to try and match that, rather I'll try and add some perspective here.
From a marketing standpoint, Tim Pawlenty fills a void in the electorate, both geographically and demographically.
The geography is pretty clear--this is a pick aimed at the Big Ten states. http://www.thenextright.com/chris-palko/the-big-ten-strategy. Once the GOP national stronghold, the Upper Midwest moved to the Democrats in the late 20th century and post-Clinton has been very bright purple. Richard Nixon's old "southern strategy" has worked so well that now the GOP must execute a "northern strategy". A Governor from MN implements this.
The demography is a bit less clear, but I'll explain.
I was born in 1959 and have been labeled a "baby boomer" in spite of missing Martin Luther King, Jr., Vietnam, Beatlemania and just barely catching Watergate. The war over 1968 which echoed into presidential campaigns decades later ( Clinton's draft dodging; Quayle and Bush serving in the National Guard; swift boats, Jane Fonda and Rathergate) all occurred before people my age were even active observers.
So when I hear people talke about Bill Clinton and George W. Bush being "baby boomers" I think:; not like me. These were the folks who already had the Saab and the socially correct attitude when I was a young guy trying to scratch out a way in the world.
My experiences were gas lines, Iranian hostages, stagflation and cities falling apart. Wishful liberal thinking didn't address this at all.
So, I and millions of others seemed stuck between the haughtiness of "Baby Boomers" and the mulletness of "Generation X". And then I found someone had described my age cohort, and of course, gave it a really lame name.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Jones
Generation Jones is a term that describes people born between the years 1954 and 1965. U.S. social commentator Jonathan Pontell identified the existence of this generation and coined the term “Generation Jones” for it
A rather cursory look at fortysomethings would indicate that the are disproportionately in suburbia, having long ago outgrown trendy urban neighborhoods and far too young to relocate in rural retirement areas with limited job opportunities. They are the parents of the Gen Y's,. many of whom are probably Obama first voters. We are mostly talking people who shop at Target, not Whole Foods. And we are talking a whole lot of Ronald Reagan first voters.
Tim Pawlenty was born in 1960 to a family in blue collar close-in suburban South St. Paul MN. We're pretty close to the geographic and demographic wheelhouse of the 2008 electorate here.
Of course, Barack Obama was born in Hawaii in 1961. But Michael Barone pretty convincingly points out that "Barack Obama missed the 1980s" due to his unconventional biography and career path. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/missing_a_generation.html
As a community organizer in Chicago and a student at Harvard Law School, he inhabited a part of the nation where it did not seem like, in the words of the 1984 Reagan ad, "Morning in America."
Liberals who think an old ACORN foot soldier is going to appeal to his age cohorts who had more practical things to do out of college are likely to be rather disappointed. Barone points out that Obama's appeal seems far more attuned to the more idealistic younger voter.
On the other hand, Pawlenty's career path coincides with his peers. He had the same sort of decade most of us had .
Pawlenty earned his undergraduate degree in Political Science at the University of Minnesota College of Liberal Arts in 1983.[5] He later graduated in 1986 with a law degree at the University of Minnesota Law School.[6] In law school, he met fellow student Mary Anderson and one year later they married, settling in Eagan, Minnesota.
As a practicing attorney, his first job was as a labor law attorney at Rider Bennett, where he had interned during school.[7] Later he was Vice President for the internet company Wizmo Consulting Group.[8]
There has not been a previous Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate born in the 1950's and 1960's. The difference between the Obama biography and the Pawlenty biography is stark, telling, and explains the wide gulf between the world views of the two parties---one based on practicality and conventional lifestyles, the other led by a cosmopolitan who rejected "riding the commuter train" http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjkwNjQxNjc2NGExZTE2ZDIyNjIzZjljZjlkNzVlN2Q= in favor of some more esoteric life goal.
There also hasn't been a President elected who was born in the years between 1924 and 1946. This group, dubbed the "silent generation" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silent_Generation were the folks who manned the fort (literally) between WWII and Vietnam, and much like the "Generation Jones" people, worked to improve their lives within the system, rather than protesting against it. John McCain's "Country First" http://news.yahoo.com/page/parade/patriotism/mccain meme is very much an echo of the bipartisanship of the Eisenhower era, when a national consensus on foreign policy governed the debate.
I think there's a market out there for poltical candidates offering brass tacks solutions to an age cohort disappointed with the poor performance of the Bush team but painfully underwhelmed with Obama's lack of direction, lack of experience, and general demeanor. Picking prototypical Baby Boomer/DC windbag Joe Biden was a complete wiff on Team Obama's part trying to reach this group (you don't invest your hard earned coin with the "garrulous uncle" http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/?id=110007800)
Tim Pawlenty may need to keep expectations low http://www.redstate.com/diaries/swamp_yankee/2008/aug/28/being-honest-about-pawlenty-now-helps-pawle/ but I think we will get the better of this exchange once the dust clears.
