Inauguration

A few days back I wrote a post comparing the troubles of the Republican Party to the woes faced by the Pittsburgh Penguins, and today I want to offer another relevant hockey analogy. Last year, the Penguins came within two games of winning the Stanley Cup. Going into this season, many fans and experts expected nothing less of the Pens than earning a top playoff seed and perhaps even a return to the Stanley Cup Finals. Right now, however, the Penguins are struggling to maintain a winning record and simply make the playoffs — widely considered to be a given entering the season. The failed expectations have resulted in people making calls ranging from the extreme, such as firing head coach Michel Therrien, to the outright absurd, calling for trading Sidney Crosby, who is almost universally considered to be among the best hockey talents in the world.

This is a simple example that clearly demonstrates the fact that expectations can be truly damning when they are not satisfactorily fulfilled. Therefore, as President Obama takes office today, it is important to note the incredibly high expectations facing his administration and the possible repercussions of those expectations.

Indeed, a New York Times/CBS News poll notes that “hopes for the new president are extraordinarily high,” while today’s Gallup poll finds that 72% of Americans think the country will be better off in four years and that 62% expect Obama to be an outstanding or above average President. U.S. News and World Report writes that, “Americans’ expectations for the nation’s 44th president are, like the estimated million-strong crowd at his inauguration, at a historic high.”

Abraham Lincoln, to whom President Obama has looked for inspiration, once cautioned, “The best thing about the future is that it only comes one day at a time.” These high hopes for the Obama administration could turn to disappointment and frustration if, for example, the economy continues to sour in the long term after Obama passes his stimulus package. If, in the eyes of Americans, our new President successfully meets the expectations, Democrats will have a strong position in 2010, and he will likely be nearly impossible to defeat in 2012; however, if the public believes he failed to meet these expectations, it may well open the door to significant Republican electoral opportunities in 2010 and beyond.

That said, today is a day to put political differences aside. As a nation we are all in this together, and so I sincerely wish President Obama the best in leading this incredible nation through these difficult times. Congratulations President Obama!

Barack Obama's selection of Rick Warren to give the invocation at his inaugural ceremony may seem like a nice overture - a reassuring gesture - to the middle and the Right, but it is stirring up a great deal of grief on the Left.

This is exactly what Obama intends.

Let's back up for a moment: President Clinton went into office in 1993 and quickly alienated the public, resulting in an opposition Congress for the next 6 years.  Clinton's later triangulation conceptually legitimated the policies of Republicans, but it put public approval (and some political capitabl) back behind Clinton.

But Barack Obama faces a much different situation.  He will walk into office with a very solid majority Democratic Senate and House, and with overwhelming public favor.  Obama does not have to seek the best deal he can get out of a Republican agenda; he does not have to moderate his policy agenda for a Republican Congress.  Obama can set his own agenda....as long as he has the public on his side.

Clinton faced an opposition Congress, so he had to moderate on policy.  Obama faces a friendly Congress, so he has to moderate on rhetoric.

I'm not sure why this rhetorical moderation is still a surprise to anybody.  Obama has been doing this for awhile: he praised Reagan, recognized legitimate grievances of opponents of affirmative action, affirmed the excesses of New Deal/Great Society liberalism.  But while each of those set aflutter the hearts of independents, moderates and the Right, none of them involved actual policy changes. 

Most people have only a very superficial intersection with politics, so trivial gestures - like inviting an evangelical preacher to deliver the invocation for a Democratic President - are powerful.  They send the signal to a low-information public that Obama is one of them, sympathetic to them, respectful of them...without actually requiring substantive political concessions of the Obama administration.  And if the noisy Left cries foul at Obama's un-progressive rhetoric...well, so much the better for the substantive progressive agenda.

Rhetorically moderate, politically Left.  Expect to see that over and over again from President Obama.