With the Republican nomination settled on John McCain and the Democratic nomination about settled for Barack Obama, political coverage is slowly pivoting to the picks of the Vice-Presidential candidates.
Vice-Presidential nominees are overblown as their impact is limited. Some of the biggest mistakes in Veep-picking have come when candidates have over-reached. Few Veeps can take a state you’ll get shellacked in and turn it into a win. Expectations of Michael Dukakis carrying Texas with Senator Lloyd Bentsen on the ticket in 1988 were absurd, ditto John Kerry’s hopes of carrying North Carolina, Senator John Edwards’ home state, in 2008.
Veep picks help you at the margins, with people who are ambiguous towards your ticket, or they turn some people who would merely vote for you into activists by energizing the base, or a Veep can make up for some deficiency in your ticket. Some Vice-Presidents don’t really do much for the ticket (Dan Quayle ’88, Geraldine Ferraro ’84, Sargent Shriver ’72.) but neither Obama or McCain can afford one of those.
McCain
Most of the McCain’s potential veeps really bring nothing to the ticket. Governors Bobby Jindal and Mark Sanford don’t add a whole lot to the ticket. They’ll assure a small cadre of fiscal conservatives cast a vote for McCain. That’ll be about it. It’s doubtful they’ll even be able to negate the limited effects of Bob Barr. Rob Portman brings nada to the ticket other than perhaps an enhanced standing in Portman’s already Republican Congressional district in Ohio.
Mitt Romney as VP could make Michigan competitive and without Michigan, Obama probably doesn’t win the presidency. On the other hand, he’s not trusted by many conservatives. His oily image on board the “straight talk express” wouldn’t be great for McCain’s image.
Governor Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) presents an intriguing choice. Palin could help McCain with women disenchanted with Hillary Clinton not being the Democratic nominee. Palin is also pro-life and not just when its convenient, she recently gave birth to a baby with downs syndrome, and chose life over abortion. Palin’s real life living out of her convictions is something that would be respected.
Palin is also an Evangelical Christian who is more comfortable talking about her faith. She’s a solid record on government reform, heading up efforts to clean up Alaska’s GOP. On the negative side, Palin’s experience is limited and, like Jindal, she’s not well-known. Her rise in a little more than 2 years from former Mayor of Wasila, Alaska to a heartbeat from the Presidency may be a tad much for some people.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee faces well-known negatives: many establishment conservatives don’t like him and have issues with his policies in Arkansas. However, what Huckabee brings to the ticket is organization.
Huckabee would bring several thousand volunteers to a campaign that lacks organization, as well as potentially activate a base of voters that can take or leave that whole voting thing. McCain is going to be running behind in money and professional organization. Who can help him counter that? How about a guy who won eight primary states on $16 million?
Huckabee has been caricaturized as a Southern candidate, but is more of a heartland candidate. McCain/Huckabee could challenge Obama in Iowa, hold the bellwether state of Missouri, and also increase turnout in key areas of Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. However, McCain’s recent attack on two reverends who endorsed him may have limited his ability to turn out religious conservatives regardless of his running mate.
Moderate choices, such as Tom Ridge, don’t really add to the nomination and are going to deepen dissatisfaction from the base without really adding anything.
Obama
Barack Obama has two deficiencies: a lack of foreign policy experience and a lack of executive experience. General historic trends would suggest a Democratic win in 2008, with an unpopular war and a down economy. What Obama must do is convince voters in Red States that it’s “okay” to support a Democrat.
Obama has four options that do this. None of them are Hillary Clinton. While Mrs. Clinton would strengthen Obama with some Democrats, I remain dubious that she’ll attract people who wouldn’t vote for Obama to the ticket. Many of these diehards voted for her as an anti-Obama vote, not a pro-Clinton vote. Her personal negatives in polls are somewhat lower than Osama bin Laden’s and the that’s nicest thing I can think of to say about her rating.
From New Mexico, Governor Bill Richardson (D) could be a winner for the Obama camp, as he brings foreign policy experience (former UN Ambassador), and executive experience (Governor and Secretary of Energy), along with a 14-year congressional career. Richardson would, at the very least, guarantee Obama the swing states of New Mexico and Colorado. He’d also help Obama with Hispanics, who McCain is trying to make a play for and who Clinton tried to turn into a wedge constituency.
Beyond Richardson, Obama could pick one of three Virginians.
The strongest of the three would be Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican and Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan. Webb’s national security bonafides would help the inexperienced Obama in the same way Dick Cheney helped George W. Bush.
After that, former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA), who many thought of as a presidential candidate, would re-assure moderates and provide executive experience to the ticket. The negative is Warner would have to leave the Virginia Senate race he’s a shoo in for and that would allow Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) to hold the seat for Republicans, but if it’s necessary for a Democratic win, I think Virginian Democrats would trade a Senate seat for the presidency.
Finally, Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) is the least of the three Virginians, without the stature of Warner, but he could deliver Virginia.
An Obama victory in Virginia would be huge. No Democrat has won it since LBJ in 1964. Virginia has 13 electoral votes and any of these three could help with the nearby state of Ohio as well as bolster Obama’s hopes in North Carolina.
Another possibility for VP would be Senator Robert Casey (R-PA). Casey would help with white working class Democrats in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But as one of the few Senators with less experience than Obama, it’s really an open question as to whether Casey would help across America.
Additionally, if Obama decides luring disenchanted Republicans is key, he could also ask Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) who would have similar benefits to Webb, but might tick off more members of his party base.
Casey, Hagel, and Kaine would represent a problem for many feminists who backed Clinton as all three are pro-life, but Obama would comfort moderate pro-lifers with a gesture meant to illustrate that he’s serious about his respect for those who disagree with him. A Casey nomination would be particularly poignant as Bill Clinton’s decision to bar Casey from the 1992 Democratic Convention began a steady exodus of pro-life Democrats from the party. However, the risk may not make it worth it.
The strongest overall candidates are Richardson, Webb, and Warner in that order. If Obama chooses any of those three, I’ll be 100% sure he’ll be the next president.
