Kirsten Gillibrand

Awhile back, Patrick Ruffini made some excellent points as to the limitations of self-funding candidates and why they fail as a "quick fix" for candidare recruitment.

I generally agree.  Self-funders have a weak track record and generally confuse quantity of message for quality of message. And yes, they do tend to be at best faux conservatives.  Given a credible opponent that worked his way up the political ladder, I'll take a successful survivor of political Darwinism over a sui generis candidate almost any day of the week.   

However, Ruffini's central thesis presupposes that the state's overall Republican environment is capable of generating credible candidates on its own.  In at least one state, this is clearly not true, and the two party system has broken down.

In NY State, the decision of former Mayor Giuliani to stand down from elective office has left the party in a quandary, as the NY Post now believes the highly vulnerable Kirsten Gillibrand may draw a merely nominal opponent in 2010---despite the fact the ObamaCare plan could well decimate the state's already depleted coffers.. 

The New York Times writes an obituary of the Republican Party every week or so, but this recent account of the woes of the NY State party was actually pretty reasonable in tone and based on actual events. 

It has come to this for the party of such electoral lions as Rudolph W. Giuliani, George E. Pataki and Alfonse M. D’Amato: a rookie Democrat, Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand — largely unknown to the public and unloved by some in her own party — faces her first election to the seat in November. But Republicans have been unable to land a marquee name to run against her

The Times cites some possibilities against Gillibrand---former LI State Senator Michael Balboni (who would have been an intriguing pick had he not quit to join ....ummm... Eliot Spitzer's cabinet);a failed Comptroller candidate, and the Mayor of a Westchester village smaller than Wasilla, AK.

Frankly, this is looking more like the war horses trotted out to lose in 2006 than any replica of D'Amato and Pataki. And this race might be closer than people think. Even the Schumer race might be interesting In 1994  Bernadette Castro (a furniture heiress) held the illustrious Daniel P. Moynihan to an underwhelming performance.

Patrick would probably suggest shaking the backbenches of the state legislature. But the root cause of the demise of the NYS GOP has to be blamed on their legislative caucus. In some places this is where future leaders develop,  in the past decade Albany's dysfunctional legislative branch has churned  out one clunker after another.  Who are the role models? The now convicted Joe Bruno, or Dean Skelos, mastermind of the disasterous Senate coup attempt reliant on two ethically challenged NYC Democrats? Current or former GOP legislators lost the following House races: 20th; 23rd;  24th; and 29th.  The one upstate seat they hold (26) was because the Erie County GOP had the good sense to locate a local businessman to run without having set foot in Albany first. 

Perhaps by 2014 some of the younger legislators or the newly elected suburban County Executives in Nassau and Westchester will be ready for prime time. But in the here and now it is apparent that the Christopher Lee example in the 26th District is the better example for conservatives in New York.

The new NYS GOP chairman, Ed Cox, ought to start getting on the horn and tracking down high net worth New Yorkers with a track record of supporting the conservative agenda--at least the economic part of the equation.  Are there no Club for Growth benefactors itching to get in the game?

The other reason for self-funders is NY is the quintessential tabloid media state. This state--especially downstate--rewards the brash and outspoken, while the political insiders tend to wilt in statewide contests.     

I use New York as an example as it perhaps is the worst example of Republican establishment dry rot out there at the moment.  But as the 3rd largest state, and still the nation's media capitol, it's not like a place like Rhode Island or Vermont that could repeal the Republican Party altogether with no national impact.  Sure , we can win without New York. But , like Frankie said, if you can make it there you can make it anywhere. And the stage is where one gets noticed. 

So, I'll take up the cause of the self-funder as the necessary evil to prevent one-party governance. If the party has failed, only individuals can succeed.

Right now there are two nominations for the U.S. Senate up for grabs in the Empire State.  Why not auction off the nominations? Could it be worse than running some old-time hack eager for some glory before he ends his career? Methinks not.     

The Democrats have lanuched their first attack at the Republican candidate in NY 20. Evidently Assemblyman Jim Tedisco charged the state for fueling his official state car.

The total of this extravagance: $21,000 over eight years. About $50/week.  

Now, I might think this was a somewhat relevant issue, except that the House Speaker  sought the use of an airplane for official transportation which costs each hour as much as Tedisco billed the state over eight years. 

Maybe the Democrats ought to drop this line of attack while they're behind.

NY Democrats have chosen their candidate to try and replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the NY 20th District special election.

The have have selected "political newcomer" Scott Murphy a venture capitalist from Glens Falls to take on Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco.

I'm not sure holding a nominating meeting at a diner on Super Bowl Sunday was the best way to drum up awareness of a candidate whom the Democrats admit was unknown, but I'll take Democrat bungles as well as Republican brilliance on this one. In picking Murphy, the Democrats passed over well known former news anchor Tracy Egan, so evidently they think Murphy  can overcome the lack of name recognition.

An editorial in Rensselaer County's daily paper, the Troy Record, opined that "Tedisco is going to be tough to beat." noting Murphy's arrival out of political nowhere.

Murphy is going to try and argue he has created jobs in chronically depressed upstate New York.(His firms webste indicates only a handful of his investments are in upstate NY)  Redstate's Brian Faughan however, points out a lot of checkers in Murphy's record such as deep ties to Missouri politics (quite unlike uber-Albany Gillibrand) and a Geithner-esq record of meeting his NY state tax obligations.

I note that Murphy's firm is deeply involved in "affordable housing" projects in St. Louis. I'm not going to spend my morning dissecting the balance sheet of these deals; but my experience in CT projects of this type suggests that the per unit taxpayer subsidy for these deals probably exceeds the average value of owner-occupied single family homes in the 20th District. Mowever , such deals provide tax credits to large corporations to offset their other liabilities. His firm also is deeply involved in the heavily subsidized Midwestern biofuel industry. 

(Note to NYS Republicans: Talk to tenants and take pictures of these housing developments.  Don;t ignore this sort of issue like the McCain campaign;slumlords don;t last in politics.)

Governor Paterson has yet to set a date for the special election.  I suspect he may put it off to try and let Murphy get around this sprawling district first. 

Democrats have had a good time running high tech businessmen in open seats. I'm not sure this counterprograms someone with Tedisco's resume well, though.  

Game (sorta) On!

County leaders in NY 20 have chosen a Republican nominee to replace now U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. They have chosen Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco.

Tedisco is best known as having been a fierce critic of former Governor Eliot Spitzer. , especially over Spitzer's disasterous plan to give driver's licenses to illegal aliens. ( a position, incidentally, shared by Ms. Gillibrand).

He's also a former special ed teacher, which may give him a leg up with the suburban soccer mom vote who deserted the McCain ticket here as in other Blue State suburbs,

Who the Democrats name is anyone's guess, as I've seen names floated of local county committee chairs, lawyer/activist types, an Independence Party state rep. from outside the 20th District, and a recently laid off Channel 10 news anchor.

It's also unknown when Governor Paterson will sign the writ of election and schedule a vote. When the unknowns are known, I'll announce "game on".

1777 was a dark year for the forces of American freedom. British forces were engaged in an elaborate strategy to capture the largest cities in the Colonies and divide and conquer the American rebels.

It all came to naught along the banks of the Hudson in what was probably the most decisive battle in the history of the Western Hemisphere--the Battle of Saratoga. 

The Battle of Saratoga did not signal the demise of British resistance to American independence; but it ended any hopes the Crown had of a decisive victory on the battlefield to end the war.  

The Republican Party faces a decisive battle on the same battlefield this spring.  Kirsten Gillibrand's ascension to the U.S. Senate opens up her House seat. And the district is centered around---Saratoga.

I've attached the wikipedia article on the district.  The district is a white, suburban/rural district. As the CQ profile indicates , it's heavily weighed towards married couples living in owner -occupied housing; with relatively little poverty or very wealthy voters.  I would note that the district in by no means monolitihic, however, as it reaches from the far edge of the NYC TV market to deep in the Adirondacks.

Let's look at the geography:  Dutchess, Columbia and Greene counties are in the Hudson Valley. This area was Gillibrand's home area, and has shifted left during recent years due to ex-pat NYC residents; it's really too far to commute from these towns to the northern suburbs, let alone Manhattan. Columbia County voted Kerry in 2004 , when Bush ran well in suburban NYC.

Delaware and Otsego counties are part of the Binghamton TV market. They are small and usually dependably Republican.

Warren, Washington and Essex counties are the "North Country". The Glens Falls area is a micropolitan area of a bit less than 100,000 residents with its own radio stations, daily newspaper, and local insitutions.; although the broadcast TV is from Albany. The North Country is reliably Republican, but outside Glens Falls, thinly populated. 

The Albany suburbs are the linchpin of the district. Saratoga and Renssalaer counties are bedroom communitiies for Metro Albany. There is an academic/horse racing influence in Saratoga Springs (Skidmore College); but the larger community here is fast growing Clifton Park, which is soccer mom nirvana.

The presidential race numbers from 2008 were not encouraging, but McCain never competed  in NY. Obama won every county besides Greene and Delaware; but his plurality in the other counties ranged from Columbia's 56% to Washington's 49.5% , In 2004 Bush also did not contest NY State, but won every county in the 20th besides Renssalear and Columbia. 

A more accurate portrayal of partisan balance in this district was probably the 2000 Clinton/Lazio race. Hillary Clinton won statewide by 12 points, and ran very well in upstate NY, yet failed to achieve a plurality in any county within the 20th District besides Rensselaer. (and that is a bit deceptive; the strongest Democratic precincts in Rennselaer are in central Troy; which is and has been in the 21st District; I'm sure Lazio won the 20th District portion). The rest of the district yielded a 52% to 60% Lazio win. 

The NY State Board of Elections shows the GOP has a 71,000 voter registration edge . So the Charlie Cook (R + 3) rating understates the potential GOP vote here; especially as virtually every state legislator representing this part of the state is a Republican.  

We may have a plethora of candidates while the Democrats may need to import one from the adjoining district. This worries me, though.  None of the GOP names (Treadwell, Little, Faso) are from the politically crucial county of Saratoga, where the GOP hasn;t recently matched its 30,000 vote registration edge with election day pluralities; and which will potentially be amenable to an Albany based interloper.  Treadwell particularly strikes me in this failed model.

I would suggest that the NY Republicans look long and hard at a less partisan candidate from the district's political wheelhouse, who has a strong record fighting crime against women.

Whoever we pick,---and we'd better pick a winner-- we simply cannot lose this race. This is the House version of the Chambliss runoff.

We win the 2009 Battle of Saratoga and we are back on the path to victory.

We lose----well, there was another set of battles in this part of NY State a few decades before Saratoga.  

=======UPDATE========

The daily in Glens Falls, the Post-Star,  is reporting that the Republican county chairmen for this district will meet Tuesday.  A weighed voting system will be used to choose a nominee. No word on whether they will choose a candidate at this meeting; under NYS election law there is no primary for special elections, so it's boss rule

Treadwell has reportedly decided not to jump in as per the Post- Star  . The present candidates are State Senator Betty Little; Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco, and former Assembly minority leader and 2006 gubernatorial candidate John Faso.   

Might I point out we might have the misfortune of running another Oberweis/Jenkins style candidate.

I'm more interested in one of these candidates (although Faso has some big losses on the record)

Japanese electronics maker Panasonic used to use the slogan

"Just slightly ahead of our time"

Readers of this blog have been treated to similar ahead-of-the-curve intelligence regarding various economic issues. And now, might I remind you what I wrote when Hillary Clinton announced she was stepping down from the Senate to serve as Secretary of State 

New York's next Senator? by Ironman | November 23, 2008 at 1:21 PM

• Just one year ago it would be hard to have imagined the obscure Lt. Gov of New York, David Paterson, having the power to make or break a national level political career.

But with Eliot Spitzer and now most likely Hillary Clinton out of statewide office, Governor Paterson now gets to decide who will be the next great NY state politician.

The Albany Times-Union has a story about the choices facing Governor Paterson. He has taken his own name out of contention, but there are plenty of ambitious Democrats eager for a move up in the world. http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=742556

A few crass political calculations come to mind here. Appointing Attorney General Andrew Cuomo removes a possible primary opponent to Paterson. Having failed in 2002 to win the gubernatorial nod, Cuomo may try again; but as of yet Paterson's ratings are pretty good and he obviously would have a huge bloc vote supprting him in a primary race. 

The other element here is the 2010 NY Democrat ticket violates the time honored "balanced ticket" approach.  David Paterson and Chuck Schumer are both from NYC; which casts less than 30% of the statewide vote.  Therefore there will be great interest in considering an upstate/suburban candidate; especially as Daniel Moynihan and Hillary Clinton were perceived as non-NYC candidates and the state legislature is now controlled by NYC Democrats.

The other demographic concerns are that the huge white Catholic bloc in NY (which frequently votes Republican) may not have a prominent statewide Democrat candidate in '10; nor is there a woman incumbent seeking re-election statewide for the Dems in '10. Hispanic  political figures are also arguing it is time for a statewide Hispanic officeholder, but a candidate like Nydia Velasquez might struggle upstate trying to hold the seat.

Given those considerations, don't be shocked if suburban Albany Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand    gets picked by Paterson. She fits all the necessary balancing factors as an upstate catholic woman, who has a centrist record for a Northeastern house Democrat (She is a Blue Dog). She also has been a fundraising machine in her races.   

Gillibrand would need to resign her Republican oriented house seat.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district_election,_2008  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district, but we might do well to get a stronger candidate  for the special election than millionaire Sandy Treadwell, a rather low intensity figure.

One thing we should now be painfully aware of is the Democrats have stopped doing things for self-gratification that don't make political sense.  I think David Paterson will help himself with his senate appointment; even if it is perceived as yet another step away from vocal leftism.  

So, I saw Kirsten Gillibrand on the radar weeks ago. And now she's been seen again

Confirmed: Kirsten Gillibrand Chosen to Fill Clinton's Senate Seat

January 22, 2009

 

PIX11 News ExclusivePosted 6:02pm | Updated 7:35pm

 

PIX NEWS is being told that Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand is the reported choice of Governor David Paterson to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton.  Two Congressional sources say members of the New York delegation have been invited to join Governor Paterson for the announcement in Albany at noon tomorrow. 

Of course, there's the usual NY State political intrigue. Gillibrand's awareness the Consitution contains a 2nd Amendment offends some downstate liberals, and LI gun grabber Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is making noise about a possible primary.

I expect Chuck Schumer will put the kibosh on this; especially as McCarthy hasn;t shown any recent fundraising prowess ( Think SE PA libs whining about Bob Casey, circa 2006)  

But, grab the popcorn!

Just one year ago it would be hard to have imagined the obscure Lt. Gov of New York, David Paterson, having the power to make or break a national level political career.

But with Eliot Spitzer and now most likely Hillary Clinton out of statewide office, Governor Paterson now gets to decide who will be the next great NY state politician.

The Albany Times-Union has a story about the choices facing Governor Paterson. He has taken his own name out of contention, but there are plenty of ambitious Democrats eager for a move up in the world. http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=742556

A few crass political calculations come to mind here. Appointing Attorney General Andrew Cuomo removes a possible primary opponent to Paterson. Having failed in 2002 to win the gubernatorial nod, Cuomo may try again; but as of yet Paterson's ratings are pretty good and he obviously would have a huge bloc vote supprting him in a primary race. 

The other element here is the 2010 NY Democrat ticket violates the time honored "balanced ticket" approach.  David Paterson and Chuck Schumer are both from NYC; which casts less than 30% of the statewide vote.  Therefore there will be great interest in considering an upstate/suburban candidate; especially as Daniel Moynihan and Hillary Clinton were perceived as non-NYC candidates and the state legislature is now controlled by NYC Democrats.

The other demographic concerns are that the huge white Catholic bloc in NY (which frequently votes Republican) may not have a prominent statewide Democrat candidate in '10; nor is there a woman incumbent seeking re-election statewide for the Dems in '10. Hispanic  political figures are also arguing it is time for a statewide Hispanic officeholder, but a candidate like Nydia Velasquez might struggle upstate trying to hold the seat.

Given those considerations, don't be shocked if suburban Albany Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand    gets picked by Paterson. She fits all the necessary balancing factors as an upstate catholic woman, who has a centrist record for a Northeastern house Democrat (She is a Blue Dog). She also has been a fundraising machine in her races.   

Gillibrand would need to resign her Republican oriented house seat.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district_election,_2008  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district, but we might do well to get a stronger candidate  for the special election than millionaire Sandy Treadwell, a rather low intensity figure.

One thing we should now be painfully aware of is the Democrats have stopped doing things for self-gratification that don't make political sense.  I think David Paterson will help himself with his senate appointment; even if it is perceived as yet another step away from vocal leftism.