Political science holds that Senate retirements are a bad thing for the incumbent party. That you want to avoid fighting for open seats at all costs, and instead focus on defending proven incumbents.
This is true except when it isn't. With all of the Senate retirements so far this cycle, we have recruited or look set to recruit top-flight candidates who in many cases are more conservative and dynamic (and so, electable) than the incumbents they seek to replace. I don't see eye to eye with Marc Ambinder's assessment of recruiting so far -- sure Jeb Bush would have had a cakewalk in FL-SEN, but either Marco Rubio or Connie Mack are rising stars and much stronger candidates than we would have recruited in the '06-'08 environment. A big leading indicator of a party's political fortunes is whether their most talented political entrepreneurs are willing to lay it on the line to run for higher office -- and so far we have our most appealing crop of candidates since the '02 cycle.
All of this is prelude to the ultimate case of incumbent self-immolation: Jim Bunning. In just the last 72 hours we have had this:
At a Lincoln Day Dinner speech over the weekend, Bunning predicted that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would likely be dead from pancreatic cancer in nine months, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal. The paper reports that Bunning reiterated his support of conservative judges, saying “that’s going to be in place very shortly because Ruth Bader Ginsburg…has cancer.” “Bad cancer. The kind you don’t get better from,” Bunning went on. “Even though she was operated on, usually nine months is the longest that anybody would live after being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.”
And to add insult to injury, this:
FRANKFORT, Ky. (AP) — Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning on Tuesday said he would have grounds for a lawsuit against his party's national campaign arm if backed a GOP challenger to him in the 2010 primary.
Bunning made the comments during his weekly media call a day after Republican Kentucky state Senate President David Williams said he would not rule out a possible run in the primary. The discussion also came a day after he apologized for comments made about Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's fight with cancer.
In his call, Bunning said that if the National Republican Senatorial Committee backed a Republican challenger in the primary, he would have grounds for a lawsuit.
"In the bylaws of the NRSC, support of incumbents is the only reason for their existence. If they recruited someone and supported them in a primary against me I would be able to sue them because they're not following their bylaws," Bunning said.
Bunning insists he's running -- though his dismal $175,000 COH figure on December 31st, and the fact he's not holding his first fundraiser until the 2nd quarter suggest a basic lack of operational seriousness. Party elders have wanted to avoid a primary to the perpetually gaffe-prone Bunning, but this latest comedy of errors practically invites one. Bunning probably runs second to Roland Burris in the category of incumbent least likely to return in January 2011.
If Republicans are serious about actively policing themselves, then its incumbents should actively urge Bunning to step aside or support his chief primary challenger. Bunning's errors are not ones of principle or ethics -- but of something even more basic and easily understood: buffoonery.
Senate President David Williams has been mentioned as a likely Bunning replacement, but keep your eye on 36-year-old Secretary of State Trey Grayson.
