losing

Sarah Palin decisively won the VP debate tonight.  And no, it wasn't due to Biden's annoying smirk, or his claim that he understands our needs because he's always at Home Depot, or his condescending "Let me say it again!" attitude that persisted throughout.  Rather, quite simply, Palin connected with every day, middle-class voters in a way that none of the other candidates could.

Hugh Hewitt points out that, "The Luntz focus group picked up the decisive Palin win, and Luntz is predicting a move towards McCain in the polls as a result."  I articulated this same thought right after the debate on Twitter.

In the last debate, Obama seriously solidified his position in the polls on the point of which candidate better "understands their needs and problems."  With the economy in the tank, this is going to be a critical factor when people come out to vote – and so McCain cannot afford to have tepid numbers in this area.  And unfortunately, I don't think there was much McCain himself could do to improve these numbers.

Enter Sarah Palin, the only one of the four Presidential and VP candidates who currently has actual ties to average middle class Americans.  For this debate to have been success for McCain, she needed to connect with these voters and demonstrate that the McCain-Palin ticket understands their needs.  She did so in a knock-out fashion.  For his part, Biden looked, well, Senatorial, boring, and uninspiring – all the while, Palin came across as a regular, hard-working American, a mother of five – certainly not as a politician.

Her immense success in tonight's debate will re-energize the Right, but more importantly, it will also reassure many Americans in two ways:  first, that she is absolutely, unquestionably ready to, if called upon, step up as President; and second, that the McCain-Palin ticket understands and will fight for everday Americans.  As a result, I expect to see a modest boost in the polls for McCain over the next few days.

The critical question, however, remains:  can McCain maintain this momentum in the last two debates?  The answer is yes, but McCain will need to drive home the points raised by Palin in tonight's debate.  He needs to continue to demonstrate that he understands the middle class' needs and problems, while at the same time showing that Obama does not.  But McCain the Maverick should not have much trouble doing that.

So much for people criticizing Sarah Palin for not being ready for the spotlight.  Tonight, she had a chance to talk directly to everyday Americans – and she shined like the star she is.

Aaron Marks is President of Three Group, LLC, a Pittsburgh-based new media firm that focuses on providing technology-based solutions for Republican candidates and organizations, and in particular has built Web 2.0 campaign management software called Mission Control.  Aaron also worked in new media and voter outreach on Senator Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election campaign.