If you have perused the political blogosphere over the last few months, you’ll have noticed a meme that began garnering a little steam with no evidence behind it: if McCain wins, he will only serve for one term. I contend that this notion is only slightly less than ridiculous with almost no basis in reality. It seemed that this idea was perpetuated by fervent Romney supporters and/or conservatives discontented with McCain as the Republican nominee. These folks seemed to delude themselves in this idea, hoping to not have to deal with 4 years of President Obama (or even President Hillary… this idea goes back awhile) and in 2012 get Romney or a "true conservative" in the White House.
In McCain's individual case, his campaign was a joke last summer – he was flying coach to speak to audiences that could be counted on two hands. After a tumultuous campaign in 2000 and again this year, he finally has the opportunity to attain the position he has sought for 8 years – to then only hold the position for 4? For any man with the ego to even run for the Presidency, does it make sense for him to want to occupy the post for only a few years?
But all of this talk about how long McCain can stay President is only relevant if he wins it in the first place. So what if McCain makes an historic Pledge to only serve one term? Will that give him the best chance to achieve victory this year?
"Strategery" of the Pledge
The most immediate ramification for all McCain supporters and potential voters is it neutralizes a lot of the apprehension over McCain's age. McCain will not be the oldest President we have ever had – merely the oldest ever on the first day of the job. And most Americans have pretty fond memories of the one man who was older than McCain. People can vote with confidence that they are not paving the way for an 80 year-old in the White House.
There are two constituencies that will be placated by McCain's Pledge – and they are on opposite sides of the political spectrum. The first are the Romney supporters and discontented Republicans who can now see their candidate running in only 4 short years which might transfer the enthusiasm for the future into excitement and turnout for McCain this year. The second group is motivated by the exact same thing. They are the Hillary supporters and socially conservative Democrats who can now see their candidate running in only 4 short years. An unprecedented amount of cross-party voting could boost turnout for McCain as they look enthusiastically to the future to break the glass ceiling.
McCain's VP pick would become even more important than it already is. If the VP choice doesn't have it already, he or she will garner immediate national name recognition for use in 4 years instead of 8. If the majority of the GOP is satisfied with his pick, then there is a pretty clear nominee for the party in 2012. At the same time, taking the Pledge will mitigate the concerns of a more maverick VP choice such as Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge since it is unlikely either will run in 4 years.
Consequences of the Pledge
First, McCain can never go back on it. If he does, he will lose that election big-time. The only reason he'd renege anyway would be a major war or crisis. Still, he wouldn't want to be stuck in that position. Four years is an eternity in politics – "Read my lips…"
Second, have you noticed the nauseatingly ad nauseam election coverage the past 18 months? The obsession in the media covering a horse race could greatly affect McCain's ability to govern, effectively lame duck-ing him for 4 years. The media focused on an election years away could create the perception that nothing is getting done in Washington the same way it has the last 2 years. This could plunge approval ratings lower than they currently are and increase the frustration of the electorate for both the President and Congress. The compromise legislation and judicial nominations under President McCain will not receive the proper coverage because everyone is wondering what Romney is doing or what Hillary thinks or if Rudy runs for Governor of New York if that would help him beat out Sarah Palin whose looks are holding up higher than Tim Kaine's eyebrows.
Remember all of the articles written about Hillary vs. Rudy? We know now this was almost a complete waste of time. Those very smart authors and columnists would have been better served commenting on the politicians currently in power. The press was given its freedom as another check to those in power; instead they were too occupied in endless speculation and hypotheticals about an election a long time away. Serious debates that should have been covered over the last 18 months on things like energy, Iraq, immigration, and gun rights have fallen by the wayside for the political equivalent of the speculation that occurs in sports talk radio and football fantasy leagues.
Third, despite my comment of the heir apparent for 2012 as McCain's VP choice this year, there is the more likely scenario of another Republican free-for-all in the primaries. Looking back and especially in light of the Democrat infighting, the Republican primaries went pretty smoothly… this time. There is a possibility of the Republicans having an Obama/Hillary-style fight to the finish in 2012 that could cause not only deep ideological divisions, but possibly racial and gender divisions if Jindal and Palin are in the mix. The press will be salivating over every out-of-context statement that could darken the bright, rising stars of our party in the black hole of the mainstream media. Not only could they perpetuate the stereotype of Republicans as racist and sexist, but they could destroy political careers in the process.
Fourth, a divisive Republican primary may be irrelevant except to grease the wheels of what may be inevitable in 2012: President Hillary Clinton. The woman will have the biggest "I told you so" in modern politics to catapult her to the nomination. Maybe the netroots and blacks will harbor enough resentment to deny her the nomination again, but I wouldn't bet on it. In fact, the netroots will be shunned after an Obama loss and the DLC will be the most powerful it's been in a decade. Even if the nominee is not Hillary, there's still an over 50% chance of a Democratic President in 2012 after the Republicans held the Executive for 12 years.
If John McCain can pull off the completely unlikely victory he is now within striking distance of, then the best chance the Republicans have to win in 2012 is to offer America the devil they already know. Incumbent President John McCain – for four more years.
