minority outreach.

As we think about the future of the party in 2010 and beyond, it's worth looking at some demographic realities:

1. By the year 2020, Hispanic/Latinos will be approximately 18 percent of the US population, while African-Americans will remain at 13 percent. Assuming  the GOP gets 30 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote and 10 percent of the African-American vote in the presidential election of 2020, we will obtain a total of 6.7 percent of the vote in these two minority groups, while the democrats will garner 24.3 percent (these are both slight exagerations, since their may be a difference between these two groups' share of the voting population and their share of the actual population, but it'll do for now). This essentially means the Democrats will start with almost half of the votes they need to reach 50 plus 1 already locked up for the 2020 election.

2. If we look at birthrates today, Hispanics in theUS have the highest at 3.1 births per woman. Among Hispanic/Latinos, the highest birth rate is among Mexicans at 2.95 births per woman. The two lowest groups are Asian/Pacific Islanders an non-Hispanic whites. This indicates that, regardless of immigration trends, the percentage of the population which is Hispanic/Latino will continue to increase well into the future, while the white population shrinks. (Actually Mexican immigration to the US at it's current rate is virtually unsustainable, as the Mexican birthrate within Mexico continues to decline. Should the Mexican economy improve, we can expect dramatic decreases in the Mexican immigration rate to the US within ten to twenty years regardless of US government policies).

3. By 2050, whites will be 47 percent of the US population, the first time in the nation's history that whites are not an absolute majority.

When we talk about the need for minority outreach not only in the GOP but generally among conservatives, it's not simply a matter of political corretness folks, but a demographic necessity.