NJ-GOV

I have to disagree with the tenor of Jon's latest post. As Republicans, we are not doomed to losing every policy battle these next four years. Who could have imagined, for instance, that we'd come so far on the stimulus? The stimulus is now officially unpopular, with 37% supporting passage in its current form, reminiscent of the plummeting support Clinton's early economic initiatives. In two weeks the GOP has been transformed from the party of Bush to the party of sensible, bipartisan opposition to fiscal insanity. It's amazing what a change in the underlying political dynamic in the form of a new President will do in so short a time.

And it's not just the stimulus. We won the first procedural battle against universal health care this week by successfully ousting Tom Daschle from HHS and more crucially, from the position of health czar. Daschle was a skilled legislative operator who could stymie Republicans as well as anyone. Though the dream Jon and I share of Howard Dean at HHS probably won't come to be, the Obama Administration will not have as skilled an advocate on health care as Daschle.

On another policy front, the new Administration is not exactly banging fanning the flames on card check, though I suspect this is a red herring for something really bad to come out of Congress. Notice how Obama initially wanted a $775 billion stimulus, Congressional Dems larded it up to over $900 billion, and the compromise position is now $700 billion -- very close to Obama's original number? I suspect that's probably the point, and something we'll see more of in the months to come.

Where we don't have a chance to win the policy battles, we must seize the chance to win electoral battles. Nothing will do more to build passion and confidence and activism at the grassroots level than winning elections again. Steele at the RNC was a big step in regaining that lost confidence. And now we have a chance to prove we can win again by taking back NY-20, and the statehouses in Virginia and New Jersey. Our 1993 wins were a precursor to our 1994 success, not just in these two Governors' races, but in obscure municipal races in places like Jersey City, New Jersey that hadn't elected a Republican in decades.

In a thumbnail way, things have already started to move in our direction. The Fairfax County, Virginia supervisor election Soren and I have written about ended in a 1-point victory for the Democrat in a county Obama won by 21 points and Mark Warner won by 37 points. There was no particular reason for it to be so close -- Gerry Connolly was just elected to Congress after all. I think mostly this is a sign that Republicans are becoming fired up about voting again, and along with GA-SEN Obama's coalition is not recreatable downticket, a problem for any Democrat on the ballot in 2010.

Not to mention the fact that we currently lead in New Jersey (!) and the Democrats will probably nominate crazy Jim Moran's brother for VA-GOV (more on that later).

Jon is right that the deck is stacked heavily against us in D.C. right now -- which is all the more reason to focus on elections and on battles in the states. But this need not mean our atttiude should be glum or defeatist. There are plenty of opportunities for morale-boosting wins if we know where to look.

 This is one that we need to pay attention to. Republican Chris Christie is up 6, 42-36, over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

Save Jersey pulls the real highlights:

On the day Chris Christie officially kicks off his campaign for Governor, his campaign is boosted by news of a poll that shows him as the strongest challenger to Governor Jon Corzine. While neither candidate breaks 50% in the ballot test, Corzine is carrying a 50% disapproval rating. Even further, 54% of New Jerseyans say that Corzine does NOT deserve a second term. Christie leads Corzine among independent voters 49%-24% (a margin that would ensure victories in Bergen and Middlesex). 

 Jim Geraghty has more at the Campaign Spot.