PA-11

UPDATE: Bill Russell now only down 1.8% against Murtha. And a tipster points out that Dennis Kucinich only leads Republican Jim Trakas by 10 points in his heavily Democratic Cleveland seat.

It will come as no surprise that our prospects in the House of Representatives look dim. In many ways, this is more disconcerting than the Presidential race because we thought 2006 was the "correction" that readied us for a bounceback or at least a status quo year in 2008. Every historical precedent to date suggests that "waves" do not come in twos.

But 2008 is NOT like 2006 in at least one significant respect: unlike 2006, at least one, and perhaps at least a handful of Democratic incumbents are in real danger of losing. And many of these newly vulnerable incumbents are mostly nowhere near the NRCC's Tier One targets, or what you thought would have been the targets three months ago.

These are entrenched incumbents like Jack Murtha (PA-12), Bobby David Scott (GA-13), and Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), suggesting that post-bailout, there is a broadly anti-incumbent sentiment in the electorate, not just an anti-Republican one. There are probably a few more we don't know, but the House pollster of record (Daily Kos/R2K) probably won't bother polling them.

In PA-12, longshot challenger Bill Russell is now within 4 of Murtha after Okinawa Jack called Western Pennsylvanians racists and rednecks. 2006 Murtha challenger Diana Irey was a much stronger candidate, and got clobbered by 22 points.

In GA-13, Bobby Scott's own campaign released an internal poll (!!) showing him up 5 points over Republican Deborah Honeycutt. TPM tried to rough up Honeycutt for her aggressive direct mail tactics, a controversy we covered here at TNR. And get this: in 2006, Scott defeated Honeycutt 69-31. A close race here would signal a remarkable turnaround from '06.

And in PA-11, Lou Barletta routinely runs ahead of gaffe-prone, self-dealing Paul Kanjorski (disclaimer: my firm has done some work for Barletta). This is a Cook PVI Dem +5 seat. And even Swing State Project is saying "Bye Bye Kanjorski."

What are we to make of this?

Lou Barletta is up over crooked, machine Democrat Paul Kanjorski in a new internal poll that they released.

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41 (42)
Lou Barletta (R): 45 (47)

Normally, we wouldn't discuss internal polls, but it is all we have, and, as the left-leaning Swing State Project notes, it is all that we have:

although the numbers are probably best served with a grain of salt, it's sort of telling that we haven't seen rival numbers from Kanjorski or the DCCC. In fact, Kanjorski's response to the poll doesn't exactly inspire confidence:

A Kanjorski campaign spokesman declined to comment on the poll.

That's the exact same response that Kanjorski's camp gave in June. Weak, sir.

We are going to win this one. As I previously noted, the Dems are runnign scared. So give Lou Barletta some money.

Earlier this week, I sat down with Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazelton, PA -- just named PA's Mayor of the Year -- and the GOP nominee for Congress in PA-11 against Paul Kanjorski, an old-school, corrupt, machine Democrat. I know a little bit about the region, as my mom spends a bunch of time with her cousin who lives just outside of the district. At the end of June, I spent the better part of the day at the Anthracite Museum, where I learned about the coal mining industry that used to be the economic core of the district.

About 15 seconds into talking to Barletta, I thought "wow. This guy has something special." I am very cynical about politicians, especially Congressmen. They don't have to be very charismatic or, often, smart. Barletta is both. And I was disinclined to like him because I disagree with his hard-core immigration position, which could well put him over the top in this race.

Throughout the conversation, I learned more and more about the district, Barletta, and Kanjorski.  I think that we can win this seat with this guy, even in this environment. His campaign released a poll that shows him up 47-42, which the DCCC believes enough to put up ads against  him.

The upshot is that if you want to the GOP pick up a seat, give Lou Barletta some money. If you want to stop illegal immigration, give Lou Barletta some money. If you to get rid of a corrupt Democrat who gives taxpayer dollars to his campaign staff and family, give Lou Barletta some money. If you want to highlight Democratic use of earmarks, give Lou Barletta some money. if you want to stop a Democrat who admits to lying about the war for political gain,  give Lou Barletta some money. If you want to stop a Democrat who says one thing about our security in Washington and another at home, give Lou Barletta some money,  If you want to send a message to Congress that we need to develop more domestic energy sources, give Lou Barletta some money. Or if you want to support a model of conservative government at the local level, give Lou Barletta some money.

But there is a very deep thing going on here that might be the best reason of all. If you want to send a message that playing along with Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi is no way to represent god-fearing, hard-working, working-class values, then give Lou Barletta some money. Barletta may offer a concrete model of how to win in a district like gave Hillary Clinton 75% of the Democratic primary vote.

I am going to write a lot more on Barletta. I think that he is a model for how we can continue to cut into Democratic districts in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. But in the mean time, give Lou Barletta some money.

I am trying to put together good news and bad news on the fundraising front. My opinion is that a candidate that is not being outspent 3 to1 and has the money to get his message out could still manage to win the election. And I strongly believe that this cycle will turn out in a lot of local races to be a referendum on drilling in the United States and the public is turning on the Democrats. One would hope that the Republicans could develop an effective message to turn the public against the Democrats not like the way it always goes that the Democrats still mange to turn everything against Republicans.

Numbers below the flip.

Disclaimer: I am working as an independent contractor with Lou Barletta's campaign, whose campaign I am about to discuss, to provide a website and our Mission Control software suite.  I am in no way directly affiliated with Lou's campaign.  This piece does not reflect the opinions of the campaign or anyone affiliated with the campaign.

2008 presents a year that is increasingly worrisome for Republicans, and for all of the right reasons -- generic Congressional polling shows Democrats with a clear advantage, the incumbent Republican President's approval ratings continue to reach new lows, the economy is being billed by many as in a recession, gas prices have reached record highs, and Republicans in Congress have become associated with pork spending and corruption.  As a result of these and other woes, Republicans recently lost two normally safe Republican seats in the House.  Many out there believe that Republicans will lose a significant number of additional seats in the House and Senate come November.

Following the above logic, a great deal of the political news that we hear these days focuses on traditionally "safe" Republican seats that are competitive or even leaning Democrat this cycle. However, I have been working closely with a House race in Pennsylvania that, although still looking at an incredibly challenging campaign, seems poised to upset a Democratic incumbent this November. The race is Lou Barletta's race in Pennsylvania's 11th district.