Pat Meehan

In March, I wrote about the GOP opportunities that follow from the conviction of South Philly machine Democratic State Senator Vincent Fumo. The recent news of Democratic corruption out of New Jersey (mayors, rabbis, and body-parts, oh my!) and the emerging consensus that this fundamentally damages Jon Corzine's already difficult re-election, when combined with outrage at farcically light sentencing creates real opportunities for Republicans.

Let's go over the facts and see how much this helps Pennsylvania Republicans in 2010:

1. Pat Meehan, one of the Republican candidates for Governor got the initial indictments against Fumo. Tom Corbett, the other one, has his own story to tell about indicting Fumo and his operation. If Chris Christie ends up winning in New Jersey, there will be a ready-made media narrative comparing New Jersey to Pennsylvania.

2. That narrative will be a little emphasized because southern New Jersey is almost entirely in the Philadelphia media market. It will be non-national political news relevant to both parts of the the Philly media market.

3. Corruption is the sort of thing that suppresses Democrat-leaning independent turnout in formerly Republican suburbs in Bucks and Montgomery countes, and, to a lesser extent, in Chester and Delaware counties. And the South Philly turnout operation that Fumo was so effective at selling is probably somewhat reduced in effectiveness. Democrats can't win statewide without huge margins out of southeast Pennsylvania. You couldn't build a better script for reducing those margins.

Grab the popcorn. This will be fun to watch.

A leading figure of the Philadelphia Democratic machine fell today.  Former State Senator Vince Fumo was convicted on 137 counts:

A federal jury in Philadelphia has convicted once-powerful former Pennsylvania state senator Vincent Fumo of every one of the 137 counts against him, including the serious charges of conspiring to defraud the Pennsylvania Senate, a nonprofit organization he founded, and the Independence Seaport Museum of millions of dollars. The Senate conspiracy count was the first of the counts being returned Monday against Fumo.

The 65-year-old Philadelphia Democrat was charged with defrauding the senate, the nonprofit, and the museum of more than $3.5 million, and destroying e-mail evidence.

Fumo ran the South Philadelphia Italian Democratic machine for years. There have been stories about menus of votes (give Fumo so much money and get so many votse) floating around Philly politics for a generation.

There are several real stories in this for Pennsylvania politics.

First, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party has been weakened. Its ability to turn out votes out of South Philly has been significantly reduced. This is both a body and a money operation. Both have been diminished. And a smaller Democratic margin out of Philadelphia means less of a need for a higher Republican margin in the small counties.

Second, this is a big coup for Pat Meehan, the former US Attorney who first convicted Fumo on two counts back in 2007. Putting a leading Democrat in jail will help solidify his base in Southeast Pennsylvania, which is a powerful floor to work from in a Pennsylvania primary.

Third, and especially if Meehan wins his primary, this will polarize the debate in a Pennsylvania general election. With Tom Corbett at AG and a recent high-profileDemocratic conviction, Republicans are bound to hit the differences hard.