Pew

Demographics and the tightening election

This is a bit late, but Pew has put out a new report showing that the race has tightened since June from an eight point Obama lead to three points. 

I wish to briefly summarize notable demographic characteristics:

*McCain gets the support of 87% of Republicans vs. Obama getting 83% of Democrats.  Only 72% of Hillary supportes support Obama compared to 88% of Romney/Huckabee/Giuliani supporters backing McCain.

*McCain has gained significantly among men, gaining 9 points in this group and leading 49-41.  By comparison, women back Obama 51-38, almost unchanged since June.

*McCain has gained 4 points among both whites and blacks.

*Obama's support among the 18-29 crowd is as strong as ever and he has cut McCain's margin among seniors by three.  However, Obama lost nine points among those 30-49 and lost six among those 50-64.

*Obama has gained 5 points among college graduates but has lost 5 points among those with some college. Most dramatically, Obama's edge among those with a high school education or less fell by eleven points.

*McCain's edge among whites is about the same as Bush's in the past two elections, but the regional composition is different.

*Obama is doing better with Northeastern whites than Gore or Kerry and has opened up a 4 point lead.  By contrast, McCain's margin among Southern whites actually exceeds Bush's margins at this stage.

*McCain is doing worse in the midwest than in 2000 and better than in 2004.  The west is about the same.

*Lower income whites and voters over 50 are substantially more supportive of McCain than Bush in 2004.

*McCain is now getting the same evangelical support that Bush got last time.

 

 

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