poll

Remember long ago when Chris Dodd first faltered in the polls.....like in the winter of '09.

It didn't get any better for him.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone poll finds that Republican challenger Rob Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% in an early look at next year’s potential match-up. Five percent (5%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are not sure.

 

While Simmons, a former congressman, is the strongest early challenger to the Democratic incumbent, there are several other Republicans in the running. Dodd finds himself essentially even with state Senator Sam Caligiuri, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley and Peter Schiff, the high-profile president of Euro Pacific Capital. In each of those match-ups, Dodd earns between 40% and 43% of the vote while the Republicans all fall in the same range.

Rasmussen's internals are rather gruesome ,too, as 39% of CT voters have a "very unfavorable" opinion of Dodd. Mind you, this is in a state whether both President Obama and his health care plan are still fairly well received as per Rasmussen.

You have to wonder what Dodd has to do to make his neighbors feel the love again. He's had a tremendous amount of press over the last few weeks dealing with his recovery from prostate cancer    , getting a dismissal of a an ethics complaint,  his eulogy for his best bud Teddy Kennedy, 

and getting a health care bill out of the committee he was running for Ted.

And it didn't move the needle a millimeter.

Yep, looks like this sign might be true.

A while back, Chris Dodd looked like roadkill in the Quinnipiac poll.  Losing to every possible opponent and trailing Rob Simmons by 16 points.

The Dodd camp blamed the firestorm over the AIG bonuses and predicted once the Senator got some positive news the storm would pass.

Not quite. 

Even after a huge wave of positive press over "credit card reform" Dodd is still underwater by any reasonable measurement in the poll.

* He loses to Rob Simmons by 6 points in the ballot test and is essentially tied with Sam Caligiuri, leading him by 2 points.

* His job approval is still only 38%. 

* Only 35% think he is "honest and trustworthy"

* Only 39% think Dodd should seek re-election.

The net effect of Dodd's positive press tours has been to lock in the 37% or so CT voters who would vote for any breathing homo sapien nominated by the Democratic party in a two way election. But how soft IS Dodd's support.

In a Democratic primary against Merrick Alpert ( don;t worry--even I never heard of the guy) Dodd leads 44%- 24%. A 20 point lead among Democrats against a complete unknown.

I'm not sure these numbers aren;t still Rick Santorum bad.  Chris Dodd may have thought credit cards were his path to success, but the CT electorate has slashed his credit limit.

davidfarrar

The new ABC/Washington Post Poll, if accurate.

I don't care that Obama is up 10 points.

I don't care that he is rated a safer choice than McCain.

I don't care that he's preferred on the economy 2:1.

I don't even care that he has a higher favorability rating than McCain.

But...

44% have a "strongly favorable opinion" of him?

I can see how some people may like Obama's policies and personality.

But think about it. This is a man who tried to legislate the first U.S. military defeat since the Vietnam War. This is a man who has voted for infanticide in the Illinois Senate. This is a man who has associated himself with some of the most vile people I have ever heard of, and didn't seem to mind until they became campaign issues. This is a man who wants to raise taxes on business during a recession. This is a man without any notable accomplishments whatsoever in his short political career.

And one out of two people have a "strongly favorable" opinion of him?

At first I was disgusted. Then I realized it was worst than that.

Three weeks away from an election, half the population is either a) utterly clueless about Obama's record or b) they know and don't care.

And that, my friends, is more terrifying than any horror movie that you will see this month.

This is a bit late, but Pew has put out a new report showing that the race has tightened since June from an eight point Obama lead to three points. 

I wish to briefly summarize notable demographic characteristics:

*McCain gets the support of 87% of Republicans vs. Obama getting 83% of Democrats.  Only 72% of Hillary supportes support Obama compared to 88% of Romney/Huckabee/Giuliani supporters backing McCain.

*McCain has gained significantly among men, gaining 9 points in this group and leading 49-41.  By comparison, women back Obama 51-38, almost unchanged since June.

*McCain has gained 4 points among both whites and blacks.

*Obama's support among the 18-29 crowd is as strong as ever and he has cut McCain's margin among seniors by three.  However, Obama lost nine points among those 30-49 and lost six among those 50-64.

*Obama has gained 5 points among college graduates but has lost 5 points among those with some college. Most dramatically, Obama's edge among those with a high school education or less fell by eleven points.

*McCain's edge among whites is about the same as Bush's in the past two elections, but the regional composition is different.

*Obama is doing better with Northeastern whites than Gore or Kerry and has opened up a 4 point lead.  By contrast, McCain's margin among Southern whites actually exceeds Bush's margins at this stage.

*McCain is doing worse in the midwest than in 2000 and better than in 2004.  The west is about the same.

*Lower income whites and voters over 50 are substantially more supportive of McCain than Bush in 2004.

*McCain is now getting the same evangelical support that Bush got last time.

The conventional wisdom is that Obama will win handily in both of the remaining primaries. But that may not be the case. H/T Pollster.com

South Dakota:

Hillary 60

Obama 34

Montana:

Hillary 44

Obama 48

Now, ARG has been wrong before. But 26 points is quite a margin.