primary

The day of reckoning is here for candidates and four ballot measures in the Last Frontier. Polls are open from 7 AM to 8 PM local (11 AM to 12 AM EST). The first results come in at 9 PM local (1 AM EST) ... you bet I'm staying up for this one. I might even nap through dinner time and get up to catch Hillary's speech beforehand.

Here's a summary of the races to watch ... I won't be endorsing candidates, but I will speak out against three of the initiatives. If you want to see a smattering of Alaskan ads, here they are.

U.S. Senate - Republican Primary: With a trial coming up in late September, Ted Stevens is still the favorite in this primary among six other candidates. Former legislator and bank president David Cuddy, who ran against Stevens in 1996, has been seen as the alternative; but his campaign has been quite unexciting. Vic Vickers moved up from Florida and claimed residency starting this January and started running anti-corruption ads; rumor has it that he was a Democrat plant. Think what you may of him, but after the indictment, Stevens came out swinging and the amount of positive response to Ted was nothing short of amazing.

U.S. Senate - Democratic Primary: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will run away with this one, but not without getting bruised by former GOP legislator, Alaska Republican Moderate Party leader and now registered Democrat Ray Metcalfe who has been exposing Begich's ties with local real estate developers.

Congress At-Large - Republican Primary: This is the race to watch! Lt. Governor Sean Parnell had been the early favorite, but Kodiak State Rep. Gabrielle Ledoux has run three admittedly good ads which put her from 1% to 10% of the vote in the latest polls. It might be because of that that Don Young and Sean Parnell are within the margin of error. While Sean has received the endorsement of Gov. Sarah Palin, I tend not to put a lot of stock into any endorsement, no matter how popular the endorser. Plus, I'm actually more impressed with Don's ads than I am with Sean's. The Anchorage Daily News' gossip column called Don vs. Sean "Mr. Bluster vs. Mr. Bland."

Congress At-Large - Democratic Primary: This pits establishment candidate Ethan Berkowitz against Diane Benson, who received 40% of the vote against Don Young two years ago. Berkowitz was minority leader for many years in the State House, and ran for Governor two years ago before dropping down before the filing deadline to be Tony Knowles' lite gov candidate. Haven't seen any polling, but Berkowitz seems to be the favorite. I won't be surprised if Benson keeps it close.

[Promoted - Rick Sincere, a smart political observer, who blogs at Rick Sincere News and Thoughts, offers a good overview and analysis of the VA-8 Republican Primary race.  This is a good contrast between the Huckabee wing of the Republican Party (Ellmore) and the Goldwater wing of th Republican Party (Singh).  You can put me in the Amit Singh camp - Jon Henke]

An otherwise low-key congressional nomination contest in Virginia’s Eighth District took an intriguing turn three days before the Republican primary, when the Washington Post reported that one of the candidates had, in an effort to discredit his opponent, made up quotations from that newspaper in a campaign flier.

You gotta engage in a little guilty pleasure every now and then. Here's Ann Coulter:

And yet every time Hillary breathes a word about her victory in the popular vote, TV hosts respond with sneering contempt at her gaucherie for even mentioning it. (Of course, if popularity mattered, networks like MSNBC wouldn't exist. That's a station that depends entirely on "superviewers.")

After nearly eight years of having to listen to liberals crow that Bush was "selected, not elected," this is a shocking about-face. Apparently unaware of the new party line that the popular vote amounts to nothing more than warm spit, just last week HBO ran its movie "Recount," about the 2000 Florida election, the premise of which is that sneaky Republicans stole the presidency from popular vote champion Al Gore. (Despite massive publicity, the movie bombed, with only about 1 million viewers, so now HBO is demanding a "recount.")

If B. Hussein Obama wins the presidency she will have a field day (and by 'day' I mean 4 years).

The conventional wisdom is that Obama will win handily in both of the remaining primaries. But that may not be the case. H/T Pollster.com

South Dakota:

Hillary 60

Obama 34

Montana:

Hillary 44

Obama 48

Now, ARG has been wrong before. But 26 points is quite a margin.