Progressive Republicans

Based on the useful comments and a bit more research, I've now got a new iteration of the GOP Relationships Diagram for your review.  This is a work in progress, so please, as always, critique away.

Several people raised questions as to whether Libertarians were even Republicans, and so forth.  For the purposes of this election, I decided to change the title to "Tribes of the GOP" to indicate groups who are inclined to vote Republican, with intersections between groups who share common ideology, values, etc.  I know that some of you felt that Status Quo Republicans intersected with Bush Republicans, but since the Bush administration seems much more Idealistic than Realistic, once again I ended up with the Status Quo's disconnected to the other groups. 

I uploaded the graphic to Flickr this time, so you should have more viewing options that will help you to actually read the text rather than simply looking at the pretty patterns.  I tried to reverse engineer the quality on the last diagram also, for anyone who wants to be able to compare the two.

I'm not sure how to label the Independents and I've not received enough data to compile a significant quote, list of values or traits, or archetype.  I'm hoping that "Reagan Democrats" covers the Hillary Democrats, although I'm open to the possibility that we could have a whole new tribe emerging there.  Heh.

You Nixon fans will notice that I replaced him with Henry Kissinger as the Status Quo Realpolitik archetype.  Please confirm whether I've defined the Status Quo's more accurately now, or less.  I intersected Neocons with Reagan Democrats as a nod to their common liberal roots, connected the South Park Conservatives to the Neo-Libertarians, and placed the Crunchy Cons among the Progressive Republicans and Bush Republicans based on my NRO and Claremont Institute research on Dreher.  Neocons and Crunchy Cons don't intersect with each other, but they're both so idealistic that I made them next-door neighbors. 

So much for the logic and justification.  I'll leave it to you to figure out how to square these circles.

[Promoted - this is an interesting basic visualization of the relationship between various rIght-of-center ideological groups.  The graphic could probably be extended and refined a great deal - perhaps a useful project for an enterprising person who has a good handle on the right-of-center coalition, their relationships and graphic design - Jon Henke]

This morning I took out my Visio crayons to play with some set theories inspired by Jon's article The Future of the Right.  Rick's comment recommended that we not forget the missing category of Reagan Republicans, and I thought I should also include another category whom I hope I have properly categorized as "Paleo-Libertarian Republicans".  I'm better at process analysis than political analysis and this is a very rough draft, but the nifty thing about a Venn Diagram is that it leaves very little doubt which groups share common goals, and which group is an outlyer.  You can take the term outlyer any way you like, by the way.  Heh. 

It seems to me there are three main factions within the Republican Party, and while we can see strengths and weaknesses in each of them, the future of the Right is far from clear.

1. Progressive Republicans (aka: Teddy Roosevelt Republicans) - These are the Republicans who may be solid allies on many issues, but who also seem to want a Great Leader who can do Big Things. They are Crusader Conservatives - generally reliable on limited government, but willing to go off on Big Government crusades.

   Illustrative Quote: "The object of government is the welfare of the people," (Teddy Roosevelt)

2. Goldwater Republicans - These Republicans vote for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense; they may have various opinions on social issues, but they subsume those views to the goal at hand: limiting government

   Illustrative Quote: "I have little interest in streamlining government or in making it more efficient, for I mean to reduce its size. I do not undertake to promote welfare, for I propose to extend freedom." (Goldwater

3. Bush Republicans - these voters may or may not care about limited government, but they're willing to accept Big Government, so long as the government does socially conservative things. (See: Mike Huckabee, Christian Democracy)

   Illustrative Quote: "Prayers can help, and so can the government." - President Bush, February 6, 2008

Of those mentioned, many have fallen into a fourth camp - Status Quo Republicans. They are mostly focused on winning that next election and consolidating their own power.

So, where does the Right stand?

At this point, the Progressive Republicans are in the drivers seat - partly because John McCain (a Progressive Republican) has the Republican nomination, and partly because a charismatic figure with some Big Ideas beats factions with no attention-grabbing ideas. At this point, no other faction has the policy ideas and grassroots support to challenge for leadership. But that position can only be maintained by a charismatic leader for a short time. It is not sustainable, At some point, the other coalitions will see to fill the core policy vacuums McCain may leave open.

The Bush Republicans are doing badly right now - you've all seen the polling - but the social conservative/evangelical base is still strong (as evidenced by the out-of-nowhere Huckabee campaign) They're not gone yet, and they could make a quick comeback with a charismatic candidate. Like, you know, Mike Huckabee. If they do that, it will mark the GOP's turn towards the European Christian Democracy style of political parties.

Finally, there are the Goldwater Republicans. They have been relegated to lesser roles, or turned into Status Quo Republicans. While a few still make appropriate noises on the Hill, a lack of publicly appealing, political viable ideas for limiting government has rendered them mostly impotent. The Goldwater Republicans have the greatest opportunity, however, because it is they who will have the most compelling arguments against Democratic and/or McCain poliices, and it is they who will need to begin driving a narrative about the impact of Big Government poicy. If they do it well, they will have a chance to reassert the Goldwater brand. If they don't, they will probably become marginalized.

It's impossible to tell which of these factions will dominate. Your predictions are welcomed.