Republicans

Here’s what it’s going to come down to. Our esteemed Speaker came on board sounding like a Conservative patriot. We were promised hundreds of billions in spending cuts ‘right out of the gate’. Like so much else the establishment Republicans have been doing, it didn’t materialize… because they refused to stand up to their Marxist adversaries, more than anything.

In an interview with Jonathan Karl of ABC, Jim DeMint warns Republicans that they may be 'gone' if they support the debt ceiling increase.

John Boehner started last January, trumpeting hundreds of billions of dollars of spending cuts… let’s see… at last count he was down to about three billion. Hell of a negotiator. He ‘negotiated’ it all away in compromise scheme after scheme, playing footsie with people whose stated purpose would forever destroy the United States of America as we know it.

Now we have the weak-kneed Ivy League Republicrats whimpering that we ‘can’t possibly’ be serious about not raising the debt limit… buying into, and repeating, the left’s wailing apocalyptic visions of economic collapse if the US debt limit was not raised immediately forthwith.

Do you know what would happen if we didn’t raise the debt limit? Absolutely nothing. The reason is that we have a 2.5 trillion dollar a year income stream…. but both the DeMarxists and their unholy allies in the Republican establishment would just as soon you not know that.

So if the sky is not falling, there is only one reason to want to raise that debt limit… it would simply be another DeMarxist slush fund. Money to pay for their outrageous drunken spending orgies. Which brings up another question. With the country literally on the edge of an economic abyss, why would any Republican even contemplate such an action?

America is in a ‘fish or cut bait’ frame of mind. What that means to Mr Boehner, and all other politicians for that matter, is that America is totally fed up. Republicans should remain cognizant of one thing. It was not through your efforts that you reached the majority… it was the American Patriot movement that swung the country for you. And just in case you think that you have a lock on this thing and that you are the only game in town… remember what happened in 2008 when the disgusted Conservative and Independent voters either left the party or just stayed home in disgust.

My prediction is that if Boehner agrees to lift the debt limit, his tenure will be sharply attenuated. I know there’s a move to leverage a debt ceiling increase against a balanced budget amendment. That will be a very necessary tool for putting the brakes on Congress’s addiction to our money. But, the debt limit remains. Until we face up to the debt issue like adults, the country will remain in recession… or worse.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2011

If that sounds harsh then perhaps the Republican leadership should look really closely at themselves and ask themselves just exactly who they’re working for, because right now, quite frankly, they’re not looking all that hot.

Sixty billion is the figure being cast about as the spending reductions for this budget. Another thirty billion was proposed but was not taken up by Republicans, for some unknown reason. I’ve really been concerned about what I perceive to be a demarcation in the party between the ‘old’ party members and the new conservatives.

As a quick for instance… look at good old reliable John McCain… now that he’s won re-election for another six years, we the American people, and especially his constituents, can collectively go to hell as he reverts to type. He nearly got whiplash running to kiss Barack Obama’s butt. Then he has the nerve to tell us that he ‘thinks he can work’ with Obama.

We seem to remember John working with ‘others’. They called it the gang of fourteen… they called it the McCain-Feingold assault on the First Amendment… they called it the Illegal Amnesty Act. Remember? I sure do. John hasn’t wasted any time either. He’s got his pet amnesty act out again and he’s dusting it off.

John’s just one guy, but he’s not alone. I’ve said this before… the times are past where Conservatives can afford to be burdened with wishy-washy moderate ‘Republicans’ who run into accommodation mode at the very first sign of a fight.

Sixty billion? A hundred billion? That’s a joke, right? We’re upside down 1.7 trillion dollars this year alone, and we’re dabbling with a hundred billion in ‘proposed’ cuts! We’re sick of the timidity and the outright cowardice shown by the Repubic leadership. If we get any more disappointed, that whole mess may be out of a job. So far, the only ones who have remained faithful to the mandate of the voters are the Patriot Tea Party freshmen. That says worlds about the party leadership.

It’s a little like what just occurred on the House floor. We thought we were sending tiger sharks in there to shred the unbelievably irresponsible spending of this government. Instead, we get these timid little mice nibbling away at the fringes of that megalithic monstrosity, the house that Obama built.

I’m afraid there are going to need to be more serious changes in the Republican Party if we are to succeed in saving the country. 2012 is going to be another watershed… but what will be shed will be the timid, the weak, the lame and the lazy. We warned them.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2011

In the first place, I don’t want my representatives cozying up to the Marxists who have done, and are doing, everything in their power to destroy this country. So I urge you, as Patriots, to contact your representatives and tell them we won’t appreciate their little tete a tete with the Democrats at the State of the Union speech.

Mark Kirk and Dick Durbin announced that they will sit together for the State of the Union address. “Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.”- Shakespeare.

As for the ‘new tone’… it’s newspeak for idiots. The DeMarxists have reverted to their passive-aggressive role with guilt, vituperation and outrageous falsehoods towards all. This is their new tone. What it means is surrender for Conservatives, in order to gain some semblance of cooperation from the left side of the aisle.

It’s the same sort of political scam they’ve pulled for almost forever. What’s even more remarkable is that Republicans have fallen for it time after time. All the leftists have had to do, up to the present time, is yank out the guilt card and we’d all cower down and go into our sickening accommodation mode.

Being sold out and sold down the creek by generations of our own party has left most conservatives a skeptical bunch… much more prone to asking pointed questions in their pursuit of the truth. Our response to the assault of the leftists has got to be as pragmatic as it is simple.

Say ‘no!’… Just say ‘no’ and keep saying ‘no’. The DeMarxists back down virtually each and every time they are confronted with principled truths. If they can’t change the story line they’re out of luck. That’s our job, folks… to sink the liberals and keep them sunk.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2011

Ok, Republicans, we’ve handed you command of the Congress and bolstered our numbers in the Senate as well. You cloaked yourselves in the language and the trappings of our patriotic movement. By doing so, Republicans knew full well that we, the ‘Tea-Party’ Patriots, the Constitutional Conservative movement was, and is, sweeping the nation even as this is written. The price of our support was not conditional, it was adherence to conservative principles, and unfortunately we are already witnessing some disturbing symptoms of weakness in the leadership.

John Boehner speaks at a December 2 press conference

So, you’re going to come to us and convince us that spending another 250 billion dollars is somehow going to translate to lowering a deficit that, were it a reactor, would be bleeding lethal radiation? The end result will be the same if we, you and I, don’t stop it.

Boehner announced on Friday that he and his new Congress would sacrifice for the sake of the people and cut their budgets 5%. Are you ready for a what?!! Moment? John, do you have a clue? Do you realize that the only way out of this mess is to push for permanent tax cuts, to start hacking and slashing non-essential, government multiple redundant bureaucracies. Other than defense and security, there’s absolutely no bureau, or bureaux, that couldn’t be slashed by 50% or more.

You need to push for an up or down vote on the tax issue. What’s going to be readily apparent to you ‘Conservative’ Republicans is that we trust you more than we trust the DeMarxists, which is to say, not at all. We have the conservative cavalry coming into the battle as a New Year gift to the progressives (let’s see how many different words we can find for communist).

John, we really want you to be successful… but any more appointments like your last two and we may have to reevaluate your commitment to the conservative cause, and perhaps your leadership of the House, at that. Let’s get this right. We’re going to have this one shot at it. If you Republicans can’t hack it, move aside, because we the people can.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

Pelosi and Reid are right in character and wasting no time in driving last gasp attempts to forward their statist agenda before the New Conservatives take over. Harry Reid made lots of friends by launching four ‘Amnesty Act’ bills at the same time… good ol’ Harry. I guess Harry figured if he threw enough bull bleep, some of it would stick.

Nancy Pelosi is mourning the loss of her pet committee chairmanships, all the while bemoaning the Republican intractability and insensitivity to the needs of the “people”. Ever the people, with the DeMarxists. It’s their #1 modus operandi… along with, “for the children”. Not nearly as catchy as they used to be, these shopworn terms of the Marxist elites. The proletariat isn’t listening to them… we just revolted, remember?

By the way, Nancy, while you’re moaning about Republicans not being willing to compromise… Does anyone remember Nancy of the most ethical Congress in history having conference room door locks changed, to keep Republicans out of the DeMarxists’ nefarious scheming for Obamacare? Tough luck Nancy. We went from having no attention span out here to news and information micro-management and a very long memory.

It’s not Nancy’s brave new world. Not Obama’s either. He’s as determined as ever, but the reality is that the Republicans will be controlling the purse strings from now on, unless or until they prove themselves again unworthy.

The president just ‘can’t get traction’, bemoan the most ardent of his remaining fans. No more popular support from the masses, no more adulation from bought-and-paid-for rock concert crowds. Nothing but failure and condemnation.

The left has been purged of the only moderating influences in that benighted party. You’ll remember them, the ‘blue dogs’? Their leaving means only the most ideologically pure Marxists will remain. This brings the whole thing down to a fundamental battle between us… you and I… the American Patriot who has stood firm through the centuries and who stand firm now… and the forces espousing an evil, dictatorial, government monster machine having neither mind, heart and, most especially, having no soul.

The enemy is the is the party of the left and it must be expunged from American politics. Purely and simply, it has no place in a free America populated by free citizens.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

It reminds me of the well-meaning, well-spoken, genteel elderly lady that you see in so many movies. “Oh, what a lovely young man” she says, while sipping afternoon tea. It is usually a humorous moment in the production, with her description of an escaped criminal to an investigating police officer.

I’m not comparing any of Barbara Bush’s likable people to a convict, but her comments to Larry King were certainly filled with the same sort of naïvety, especially from a political perspective.

I like George and Barbara, as I do Mitt Romney. I can’t say that I dislike Bill Clinton, regardless of his political leanings. Maybe it’s the ‘naughty-boy’ charm that he exudes. I don’t think, for one minute, that Skip will be in agreement on that point!

Back in 2008, I was disappointed that Romney was not on the ticket. Out of a pretty weak field, he seemed to me to be the best hope. Other than the blemish on his record that was Massachusetts health care (no one’s perfect), his financial track record appeared to be what was needed as the country descended into recession.

A lot has changed in two years. The GOP is now a vibrant, re-invigorated party, thanks largely to the Tea Party. My personal favorite/s for the presidency no longer includes Mitt Romney. I still like the guy, but from a practical viewpoint he is not the best the Party has to offer.

It’s blatantly obvious that these changes are either not apparent to Mrs Bush, or she feels more comfortable with the previous incarnation of the Republican Party… “Let’s all get along nicely and not rock the boat”. We witnessed what that attitude did to the party and the country. It gave us Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

It’s ironic, then, that the one person for whom she showed utter contempt is the one that, along with others, has redirected the party and brought it back from the abyss. This aspect of the Tea Party movement is “confusing” to George H.W. Bush. This re-found preference for values over establishment seems to baffle more than just the Bush family. Recent comments by Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich, both of whom have done much for the party in its former incarnation, don’t seem to ‘get it’ either.

It would be more appropriate for the old-school types to keep their disdainful (or perhaps jealous?) comments to their mutual appreciation society meetings. Sarah Palin should not worry about those that are stuck in a lackluster past. However, it is unfair and unwarranted for some self-opinionated people that did not cut the mustard to hinder the success of the new, determined breed of politician.

(Editor Dee is in for Skip today)

     In these closing days of the midterm elections, Democrats have been unable to do anything to stop the hemorrhaging of support that continues to drain away from them. At the same time, the wind behind the backs of the G.O.P. continues to build and with no resistance in sight, the momentum for Republican electoral victories is only strengthening. Two weeks ago, I feared that Republicans had peaked in the polls. That would have been a premature occurrence and not boded well. But since then, as GOP candidates continue to rise in the polls, it is clear that Republicans did not peak too early. All indications are that the momentum is still behind them and building. As such, history shows that many seats which are close enough to be considered tossups and those that have Democrats holding only slight leads, are more likely to fall into Republican hands then Democrat hands.

In addition to that and the massive swing of Independent and women voters to Republicans from Democrats, I believe that the anti-Democrat sentiment is currently running so unusually strong and deep that traditional polling models are not able to accurately enough read the depth of support for Republican candidates that exists out there. At least not as accurately as they normally can be.

The polls most reflective of final election results are those that are taken among people who are considered likely voters. But this year, there exists a group of voters which can not yet be identified by existing polling models. They fall in neither the category of “first time voters” or “likely voters”. It is the segment of the electorate which is also the most angry and the most likely to vote against Democrats. They are voters who became fed up with government as much as 5 to10 years ago and tuned out and stopped voting. But now, they have become so angered that they have come out of inactivity and are going to be some of the first people to cast their ballots against Democrats on Election Day. Existing polls are unable to account for this demographic and are allowing for results that do not contain the influence of these voters.

It is this unseen undercurrent of Republican support which I believe is going to help tip tossup races in favor of G.O.P. challengers and produce a number of surprises in races that are leaning toward Democrats. For instance, while I admit that Barbara Boxer is likely to be reelected, I have a feeling that Republican Carly Fiorna is poised to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the night and throw Boxer into a long overdue retirement from politics. The same undercurrent that I believe may sweep Fiorna into the Senate, will probably also be sweeping Republicans Dino Rossi of Washington and, I am going out on a limb by saying West Virginia’s John Raese, also to victory.

On the Senate side I believe that Republicans establish majority control by winning in:

Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

West Virginia and Washington are going to be too close for comfort though, and these results may not be official for quite a while, especially in Washington where mail in ballots are going to make recounts a tedious and time consuming process.

As for Alaska, this will probably be the very last race to be declared and won’t be done on Tuesday. Expect a careful and methodical recount of tons of write-in votes and court challenges. In the case of Delaware, I am probably one of the few people who is still not writing-off the ability for Christine O’Donnell and the voters of Delaware to make the professional pundits, political establishment and the media, look stupid, by pulling off an unlikely surprise upset victory over Democrat Chris Coons.

So while I an sure that  the G.O.P. will have a minimum net gain of 8 seats in the Senate, I believe that some combination of wins in Washington, West Virginia and/or California, will give Republicans control of the Senate with a total of 51 to 49 seats. But the very real possibility of  a 50/50 tie does actually exist here. If that happens, expect the GOP to end up taking control at some point during the course of the new year as at least one Democrat or two switch Parties ahead of their 2012 reelection bids in an attempt to avoid becoming  a casualty when President Obama is on the top of the liberal ticket.

On the House side, I expect Republicans to increase their existing numbers by a minimum of 58 seats and possibly as many as 65 or even 68 seats. This would bring Republicans from the current 178 House seats to anywhere from 236 to 243 or 246 House seats. Such numbers would give the G.O.P. one of its largest majorities since 1946.

Many may believe that these figures are too high. As a skeptic, under normal conditions, I might believe so too. However, even though I am typically a pessimist and even though I usually prefer to lower expectations in politics, I am convinced that my projections are not exaggerated or overly optimistic and I believe there to be a greater chance for the higher estimate to come to fruition than there is for my lower estimate.

But the proof will be in the pudding and no matter how much statistical data and fine tuning of local factors that I combine together to reach my projections, only each individual voter ultimately knows what they will do with their private ballot. And Lord only knows the variables that things like the weather will add to the mix.

But signs of the final results will reveal themselves early on in the evening of November 2nd.

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6:00 pm: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky;

Polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm, but we may not hear any results until 7:00 PM when the rest of them close Indiana and Kentucky along with the states of Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina and parts of Florida.

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7:00 pm: Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina, Parts of Florida, All of Indiana and Kentucky;

The hour between 7:00 and 8:00 pm may produce election results that provide us with a hint as to whether the 2010 midterm elections are going to be a current, wave or tsunami for Republicans.

South Carolina’s Niki Haley will hold on to the Governor’s mansion for Republicans. But it is South Carolina’s 5th CD which may be one of the very first indication that normaly safe democrat seats and incumbents are about to fall like dominos. Here, if longtime incumbent John Spratt loses to Republican Mick Mulvaney, people like Michigan’s John Dingel and Massachusetts Barney Frank, better pull out the rosaries, find God, light a candle and say a few prayers because for the first time in their careers they will most definitely be vulnerable.

From Indiana, The GOP will gain a senate seat, replacing retiring Evan Bayh with Dan Coats and news that 8th and 9th district Republicans Larry Buschon and Todd Young defeat Democrat incumbents Trent Van Haaftern and Baron Hill will indicate that Republicans are on track to win 55 or more seats. Should they lose, the GOP will still be in line for at least 40 seats but significantly more than that may not be realistic. In Indiana’s 2nd district, if returns are still too close to declare incumbent Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly the winner, or if his Republican opponent Jackie Walorski beats him, do not be surprised by GOP gains of 60 or more seats.

In Florida, early indications that Republicans are on track for 40 or more seats will be seen in early returns that give the GOP wins in FL-2 with Republican Steve Sutherland, and in the 8th, where the unbridled liberalism of Allen Grayson, one of the most obnoxious and arrogant members of Congress, should be shut up and shot down by Republican Daniel Webster. But if the G.O.P. is going to be riding a tsunami to control of the House, Lt. Col. Allen West, my favorite candidate of all running for the House, will win in Fl-22, along with Republican Sandy Adams over Democrat Suzanne Kosmas in Fl-24.

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7:30 pm: West Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio

Other races between 6 and 8 pm to look at as barometers include KY-3, where incumbent John Yarmuth should win by at least three or more percent. If his opponent, Todd Lally pulls off an unlikely win, this election will be a bigger landslide to the G.O.P. than anyone anticipated.

The same goes for KY-6 (Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr), NC-2 (Bob Etherdige vs. Renee Elmers), VA- 5 (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt), GA-12 (John Barrow vs. Raymond McKinney), OH-6 (Charlie Wilson vs. Bill Johnson), and WV-3 (Nick Rahall vs. Spike Maynard) and we should be getting news on SC-5 (John Spratt vs. Mick Mulvaney),

Perhaps the biggest news at this time will be the news that Rob Portman keeps Ohio’s senate in the Republican column and that John Kasich takes the Governor’s mansion away from incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland.

At the hour of eight o’clock, the real dye will be cast.

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8:00 pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CD’s 1 & 2, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

At this point in time, despite Linda McMahon and the Republican candidate for Governor losing their races in Connecticut, look for CT-5 (Chris Murphy vs. Sam Caligiuri), to switch and if CN-4 also falls, you will have further confirmation of the 2010 midterm elections being historic. During the eight o’clock hour, one of the most indicators of just how big Republicans may win by, will be most played out in Mississippi’s 4th CD. If incumbent Blue Dog Democrats Gene Taylor goes down to Republican Steven Palazzo, President Obama might want to consider pulling a Charlie Crist and registering as an Independent because a loss by Taylor will mean that there is no place for Democrats to hide and no issue for them to hide behind.

A race that could be indicative of the big mo behind the G.O.P. will be Maine’s 1st district where Democrat Chellie Pingree could be beaten by Republican Dean Scontras.

The state to produce the most dramatic switch to the G.O.P. this hour may be Pennsylvania where, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey will take the statehouse and U.S. Senate and as many as 7 seats could go red. The five seats most likely to switch are PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper-D vs. Mike Kelly-R), PA-7 (Patrick Meehan-D vs. Bryan Lentz-R), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy-D vs. Michael Fitzpatrick-R), PA-10 (Chris Carney-D vs. Tom Marino-R), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski vs. Lou Barletta).

In regards to the U.S. Senate, sometime between 8 and 8:30 we should be hearing that my favorite Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, has pummeled both Charlie “What Am I Now” Crist and Democrat Kendrick “I should have stayed in the House” Meek.

We should also hear that we can say goodbye to Joe “Says Tax” Sestak in Pennsylvania with Republican Pat Toomey, and also welcome Republican Mark Kirk to the Senate from Illinois.

As far as the races for Governor go after the 8:00 pm closures, in addition to Paul LePage taking Maine, Tom Corbet taking Pennsylvania, and Florida going to Rick Scott, the GOP will also increase the number of Governors in their ranks with wins in Pennsylvania and Illinois and Maine.

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8:30 pm: Arkansas

At 8:30 pm, Arkansas closes the book on the 2010 midterms with a stinging and embarrassing defeat of Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln and the flip of AR-2 from Democrat Joyce Elliot to Republican Tim Griffith.

A defeat of Democrats in AR-1 and 4 is not likely but possible. If they do fall to Republicans, this will be further evidence that we will be in the midst of a total shift in the tectonic plates of the political landscape.

Before 9:00 pm, we should already know that Nancy Pelosi’s tenure as majority leader is just a bad memory. But during this hour, a flood of states will be delivering additional blows to Democrats.

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9:00 pm: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Between 9 and 10 pm, the G.O.P. will make big gains in the all important statehouses which will be instrumental in drawing preferential districts for the incumbent Party for the next decade and also gains towards taking control of the United States Senate.

Republicans will pick up Governors in Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and have a good chance of taking Minnesota. Rhode Island’s gubernatorial leadership is likely to flip from Republican hands to Independent hands, but it is still somewhat of a tossup. And while I do not see us keeping Rhode Island, if by chance, Republican John Robitale defeated liberal Independent Lincoln Chafee and Liberal Democrat Frank Caprio, Democrats will need sedatives to get through the rest of the night because that will be indicative of a pending national whooping that will hit them so hard, FDR will feel it.

As for the Senate, say goodbye to Michael Bennet in Colorado, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

House races to look at for signs of how substantial the night will be for Republicans include CO-7 (Permultter-D vs. Frazier), RI-1 (Cicilline-D vs. Loughlin-R), and especially NY-1 (Bishop-D vs. Altschuler-R), NY-13 (McMahon vs. Grimm-R), TX- 25 (Dagget-D vs. Campbell-R), and MN-8 (Oberstar vs. Cravaack). Any combination of three or more of these seats will be one of the final signs that Democrats are spiraling out of control in this election. From those states which wrap their voting up during this hour, at least 16 or 17 seats should switch from Democrats to Republicans. Some of the biggest gains are likely to come from New York where the GOP will pick at least 4 seats, (NY-1, 19, 20, and 29), but possibly as many as 6 with wins. A remarkable chance exists for Republicans to take back the 13th CD which is encompasses the Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn section of New York City’s five boroughs. This seat has been the only one in which New York City sent a Republican to occupy. It was in Republican hands for decades but last year fell to Democrats after Congressman Vito Fossella received a DUI charge in Virginia and subsequently revealed that while he was away in Washington from his Staten Island family, he spent time with his mistress and illegitimate child in Virginia. The candidacy of Michael Grimm and the anti-Democrat environment we are in, makes this a good last chance to take this seat back.

The other New York race that is well worth watching is out on the Southern tip of Long Island where Tim Bishop, (D, NY-1) could find himself a victim of a trend that began on Long Island last November when one of its two counties was taken by surprise when Republican Ed Mangano came from nowhere to defeat a safe Democrat incumbent in a race that was largely seen as uncompetitive. Although that was Nassau County and NY-1 is in Suffolk County, there is not much that differentiates the one county from the other when it comes to political sentiments. In this congressional district, Republican Randy Altschuler is certainly giving incumbent Tim Bishop a run for his money and if there are going to be a lot of surprises on November 2nd, NY-1 is as a good a place as any.

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10:00 pm: Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nevada, Utah

It may not be made official for an hour or so but the biggest news of the night will happen not long after the stroke of 10 when Sharon Angle embarrasses Democrats by taking down their Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Further embarrassment will include the ridiculously lopsided loss of Harry’s son Rory Reid, who is running for Governor of Nevada. Hopefully the Reid family will take the message and crawl back under the rock they emerged from.

In this same round of poll closings Iowa will give the GOP a statehouse pickup in Iowa. House seats to watch include AZ-7 where a win by real life rocket scientist, Republican Ruth McClung could defeat incumbent Raul Grijalva. McClung is not favored to win but if she did, it would be indicative of 2010 being much more than a Republican wave election. Other races which are suppose to remain in Democrats hands but could be upsetting the establishment are AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords-D vs. Jesse Kelly-R), ID-1 (Walt Minnick-D vs. Raul Labrador-R), IA-3 (Boswell-D vs. Brad Zaun-R) NV-3 (Titus-D vs. Heck-R), ND-At Large (Pomeroy-D vs. Berg-R), and UT-2 (Matheson-D vs. Morgan Phipot-R).

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11:00 pm: California, Washington and Oregon;

In this round of poll closings, the GOP will simply be putting the icing on the cake House, but could determine whether or not they take control of the Senate.

In California, Republicans may very well control in Sacramento with the defeat of Meg Whitman to Jerry Brown and while only a major last minute development can save her, Carly Fiorina will in my opinion fare far better and ultimately pack Boxer up with a victory of a percent or less.

Washington state is likely to produce an upset by sending republican Dino Rossi to Washington and retiring incumbent Patty Murray by another slim margin of victory, but mail in ballots will prevent this from being confirmed for days, at least.

The most interesting House race to be watched will be in California where Democrat Loretta Sanchez is in the tightest race of her nearly two decade in office as she tries to beat off a challenge Van Tran. Vietnamese Tran, a California state legislator, is unifying the significant 15% of the district populations which is Vietnamese, along with a coalition of Independent Hispanics, African-Americans and Caucasians, along with a sizeable Republican vote. Together, these groups are countering the overwhelming 69% Hispanic makeup of the district. But that is a pretty solid voting bloc and if Van Tran can pull this one off, it will in large part be due to the strong undercurrent that is sweeping Democrats away. Sanchez should win this election the surprise factor has great promise in CA-47.

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12:00 pm: Alaska, Hawaii

At this point, Republicans may be needing a victory by Joe Miller to take control of the Senate. But despite losing the GOP nomination in Alaska, Miller’s closets opponent in the race, Lisa Murkowski, is still a Republican and if her outside chance of successful write-in candidacy comes true, she is still likely to caucus with Republicans and in that regards, accomplish the same goal as far as who will control the Senate. Either way, expect Alaska’s results to no be made official for quite a while.

In Hawaii, CD-1 will be an attention grabber. Here, Republican Charles Djou recently won the seat in a special election. Yet observers favor his opponent, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa to take this seat back for Democrats. I think Djou can keep it, albeit by a small margin, but by a majority nonetheless. As for the governor’s race in Hawaii, while Republican Duke Aiona has made this race a tossup between popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie, I fear Abercrombie is just to popular to defeat in Hawaii. The fact that Aiona has made this race as close as it is, is a tremendous credit to him, but in the end, I see Republicans losing the hold they had on the Hawaii statehouse with retiring Republican Governor Linda Lingle, to Neil Abercrombie.

No matter what, Republicans will be back in a position of power that will make it at the very least alter the Obama agenda and make it impossible for the President and Democrats to try to circumvent them. If the GOP happens to take control of both the Senate and the House, you can rest assured that President Obama is going to be a different President than he has been over these past 22or so months. Will he abandon his agenda and moderate in order to work with Congress or will he stick to his guns and risk an endless stream of rejection from Congress? When Bill Clinton was faced with the Republican Revolution of 1994, he was reduced to having to explain to a reporter how he would be relevant to the political process during the second half of his term.

Now, with the Republican Rejuvenation of 2010, President Obama may be faced with the same need to prove how relevant he will be. This will certainly be the case if Republicans can exploit the small chance of taking over the senate as well as the House. But Bill Clinton was able to prove that he was indeed relevant. He began to pay attention to the pulse of the people and began working with the G.O.P. instead of constantly working against them. This will be harder for President Obama to do though. The has publicly told Republicans to sit on the back of the bus and called Republicans “the enemy”. Still, unless President Obama wants to endorse gridlock and seek to get reelected by claiming that the GOP is still in the way of his agenda which has proven to be a failure, he will be forced to moderate. How he reacts to the new political in America will be quite interesting. If he is the politically charismatic genius that some claim, he could turn things around and resurrect himself among mainstream and moderate America and the powerful Independent vote.

As for Republicans, it must be remembered that they are not winning because people like, trust or want them. They are skeptical of the GOP and not fully convinced that they understand that the people do not want to compromise on the issues of big government, big spending and further encroachment of our constitutional rights. This means that Republicans must be unafraid of saying “no” to the President. They must not backtrack on attempts to repeal government healthcare, cut the size, scope and cost of government or cave in to political correctness and fail to live up to the promises made in 2010.

The final political effect of the 2010 election results will be seen in the 2012 race for President a contest that will begin on the Republican side on Wednesday November 3rd. On the Democrat side it may not begin start up quite as fast. President Obama will be spending some time outside of the country in the days to follow the election. And when he returns home he will be making every single policy decision with 2012 in mind and others. But others like Hillary Clinton may also be doing the same. People like her might feel that the devastating losses that Democrats will have suffered, will require them to save the Party from President Obama and the nation from his policies. Such thinking could be behind the resignation from her position as Secretary of State some time during the beginning of 2011.

Republican House Pickups

Results bewtween 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm

• Indiana 8                - Larry Buschon over Trent Van Haaften
• Indiana 9                – Todd Young over Baron Hill
• Florida 2                 – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
• Florida 8                 - Daniel Webster over Allen Grayson
• Florida 22               - Allen West over Ron Klein
• Florida 24               - Sandy Adams over Suzanne Kosmas
• Virginia 2                - Scott Rigell over Glenn Nye
• Virginia 5                - Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello
• South Carolina 5  -  Mick Mulvaney over John  Spratt
• Georgia 2                 - Mike Keown over Sanford Bishop
• Georgia 8                 – Austin Scott over Jim Marshall
• Ohio 1                        – Steve Chabot over Steve Driehaus
• Ohio 15                     - Steve Stivers over Mary Jo Kilroy
• Ohio 16                     - Jim Rannaci over John Boccieri
• Ohio 18                     – Bob Gibbs over Zach Space
• North Carolina 8  - Harold Johnson over Larry Kissel

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

** -indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

• Georgia 12               - Raymond McKinney over John Barrow**
• Indiana 2                  – Jackie Walorski over Joe Donnelly**
• Kentucky 3              - Todd Lally over John Yarmuth
• Kentucky 6              – Andy Barr over Ben Chandler
• Virginia 9                 - Morgan Griffith over Rick Boucher
• Virginia 11               – Keith Fimian over Gerry Connolly
• Ohio 6                        – Bill Johnson over Charlie Wilson**
• West Virginia 1      – David McKinley over Mike Oliverio
• West Virginia 3      – Spiike Maynard over Nick Rahall
• North Carolina 11   - Jeff Miller over Heath Schuler

Results bewtween 8:00 pm and 9:00 pm

• Connecticut 5           - Sam Caliguiri over Chris Murphy
• Illinois 14                   - Randy Huttgren over Bill Foster
• Illinois 17                  - Bobby Schilling over Ohil Hare
• Maryland 1                – Andy Harris over Frank Kratovil
• New Hampshire 1   - Frank Guinta over Carol Shea Porter
• New Hampshire 2   – Charlie Bass over Ann McLane Kuster
• New Jersey 3            – Jon Runyan over John Adler
• Pennsylvania 3        – Mike Kelly over Kethy Dahlkemper
• Pennsylvania 7        – Bryan Lentz over Patrick Meehan
• Pennsylvania 8        - Michael Ftzpatrick  over  Patrick Murphy
• Pennsylvania 10     – Tom Marino over Chris Carney
• Pennsylvania 11      – Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski
• Tennessee 6              - Diane Black over Brett Carter
• Tennessee 8              – Stephen Fincher over Roy Herron
• Texas 17                     – Bill Flores over Chet Edwards
• Florida 2                    - Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
• Arkansas 1                - Rick Crawford over Chad Causey
• Arkansas 2               -  Tim Griffin over Joyce Elliot

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 ** -indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

• Alabama 2                             - Martha Roby over Bobby Bright **
• Connecticut 4                      – Dan Dibecella over Jim Hines **
• Massachusetts 4                 – Sean Bielat over Barney Frank **
• Mississippi 4                        – Steven Palazzo over Gene Taylor **
• New Jersey 6                       – Anna Little over Frank Pallone **
• New Jersey 12                     - Scott Sipprele over Rush Holt ** 
• Pennsylvania 4                  – Keith Rothfus over Jason Altmire **
• Pennsylvania 12                – Tim Burns over Mark Critz **
• Tennessee 4                         – Scott DeJarlas over Lincoln Davis
• Texas 15                                – Eddie Zamora over Ruben Hinjosa
• Texas 25                                – Donna Campbell over Lloyd Doggett **

Results bewtween 9:00 pm and 10:00 pm

• Colorado 3                  - Scott Tipton over John Salazar
• Colorado 4                  - Cory Gardner over Betsy Markey
• Louisaina 3                 - Jeff Landry over Ravi Sangisetty
• Kansas 3                       - Kevin Yoder over Stephene Moore
• Michigan 1                   - Dan Banishek over Gary McDowell
• Michigan 7                  - Tim Walberg over Mark Schauer
• New York 19              - Nan Hayworth over John Hall
• New York 20             - Chris Gibson over Scott Murphy
• New York 23             - Matt Doheny over Bill Owens
• New York 29             – Tom Reed over Matt Zeller
• New Mexico 2           - Harry Teague over Steve pearce
• South Dakota -AL    - Kristi Noem over Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
• Texas 23                     - Quico Canseco over Ciro Rodrigues
• Wisconsin 7              - Sean Duffy over Julie Lassa
• Wisconsin 8              - Reid Ribble over Steve Kagen

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

  ** -indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

• Colorado 7                 - Ryan Frazier over Ed Perlmutter**
• Louisiana 2        - *Cao over Richmond **~(see note below)
• Minnesota 1               - Randy Demmer over Tim Walz
• Minnesota 7              -  Lee Byberg over Collin Peterson
• Minnesota 8               - Chip Cravaack over Jim Oberstar**
• Michigan 15               – Rob Steele over John Dingel**
• New York 2                – John Gomez over Steve Israel**
• New York 13             – Michael Grimm over Michael McMahon**
• New York 24             – Richard Hanna over Michael Arcuri
• New York 25             - Anne Marie Buerkle over Dan Maffei
• New York 27             – Leonard Roberts over Brian Higgins
• New Mexico 3           – Tom Mullins over Ben Ray Lujan
• Rhode Island             - John Loughlin over David Cicilline**
• Wisconsin 13             - Dan Kapanke over Ron Kind**

Results between 10:00 pm and 11:00 pm

• Arizona 1                               – Paul Gosar over Ann Kirkpatrick
• Arizona 5                              - David Schwiekert over Harry Mitchell
• Idaho 1                                   – Raul Labrador over Walt Minnick
• North Dakota -AL              – Rick Berg over Earl Pomeroy
• Nevada 3                               – Joe Heck over Dina Titus

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 ** -indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

• Arizona 7                              – Ruth McClung over Raul Girjalva **
• Arizona 8                              - Jesse Kelly over Gabrielle Giffords **
• Iowa 3                                    – Brad Zaun over Leonard Boswell
• Utah 2                                    - Morgan Philpot over Jim Mathison

Results between 11:00 pm and 12:00 am

• California 11                    - David Harmer over Jerry McNerny   
• California 20                   – Andy Vidak over Jim Costa
• Washington 3                  - Denny Heck over Jamie Herrera

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 ** -indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

• California 18                   - Mike Berryhill over Dennis Cardoza
• California 47                  - Van Tran over Lorretta Sanchez**
• Washington 2                 - John Koster over Rick Larsen**
• Washington 9                 - Dick Muri over Adam Smith
• Oregon 4                          - Art Robinson over Peter DeFazio
• Oregon 5                         - Scott Brunn over Kurt Schrader**

Results after 12:00 am

• Hawaii 1                 - Charles Djou over Colleen Hanabusa

                                                                                                        Click the image below for more from POLITICS 24/7     

…. And it didn’t take more than a couple of shakes of a lamb’s tail either. For loosely organized, totally independent entities the Patriot groups are far faster and far more efficient than the US government under Obama, Reid, Pelosi and the Cirque Du Marximus.

Some would argue that it wouldn’t take all that much, and while I’m willing to grant some truth to that, I think all of us would acknowledge that our own party has a lot to do and not much time in which to do it, without taking any resources away from the drive towards November.

They’re talking about as many as 100 seats which could fall to Conservative candidates in the House of Representatives. Our Republican leadership has got to learn something it never did figure out when it had power before… how to lead. Instead, it forgot who and what we are supposed to be… and stand for.

These ‘moderate’ establishment types may be arrogant and devious, but even they recognize that the much joked about and maligned Tea Party Movement has become a political juggernaut. It was surprising that some of those guys didn’t suffer whiplash, with the speed that they changed direction on the Christine O’Donnell issue.

The Republicans are going get their chance to lead, but they will be the most scrutinized Congress in history. This is what they don’t get… after what we’re experiencing with the Marxist regime of Barack Hussein Obama, after more than liberal doses of our own Republicans’ perfidy, we’re not taking our eyes off of you people for a split second. We will be constantly vigilant and remain that way for as many election cycles as it takes to purge the Republican ranks of those who have sold out the Conservative movement. Register and vote… register others and help them to vote… tell the story of freedom.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

Well, we saw this one coming. I, and other writers, have been warning the Republicrats in the Senate that their foot dragging on authorizing the sorely needed unemployment extension funds was going to come back around to bite them and, gee, what a surprise! Barack Obama made it the thrust of his entire radio broadcast to the nation today.

I warned that Republican stonewalling on this would position the DeMarxists to be able to control the message, portraying Republicans once again as heartless and uncaring about the plight of millions of their fellow Americans. Indeed, that is exactly what has occurred. Hey! Guys! We’re on your side, but you’re not making it any easier for us out here.

Instead of taking stands against things that would resonate with the American people, such as filibustering the nomination of the extreme leftist Elena Kagan, or, wonder of wonders, strongly opposing the ‘financial regulatory’ bill, which not one member of the House or the Senate has read or understands. Another thousand plus pages of job and business killing legislation, and the best the Republicrats can do is to oppose the only lifeline millions of Americans have, during the worst recessionary period in our history since the great depression. In fact, they would have a bunch of trouble convincing many Americans that it isn’t a depression.

A company here in the Bay Area has just been forced to go through a second wave of layoffs. This time they are laying off senior journeymen and production supervisors. These are the guys that produce the money. Another company has been forced to lay off some of their best and most experienced managers. Both of these companies are in areas that before 2008 were considered to be largely recession proof.

No one wants to see a European/UK system of a permanent ‘dole’ for the unemployed. We’ve seen the effects of the welfare plantation system fostered by the DeMarxists. It’s also equally true, as I’ve written here before, that with rare exception unemployment does not make for luxury living… in fact it doesn’t even cover the basics in most instances. Few people look on unemployment as a vacation, unless they are living at Mom’s.

Spare us the pontification of telling us how extended unemployment benefits are an excuse for not looking for work. Tell it to one acquaintance of mine, with an excellent resume, who has sent out 400 plus resumes. Or another professional who has sent out over a thousand resumes, to generate a bare handful of interviews. There are over six point two people for every job opening out there.

The Republican leadership had best do some severe soul-searching. No one wants more deficit spending. But these are not normal times. The unemployment extensions have to be considered a lifeline in a time of great need. The Republican leadership could have picked many issues to stand on that the people of America would have backed them up on.

This is Barack Obama’s economy… it’s his insanely suicidal policies that are preventing job growth. His administration has not ‘saved’ (what the hell does that mean?) or generated 3.6 million jobs! The 300 ‘green’ jobs at a lithium battery factory were paid for lock, stock and barrel by your taxes. At last count, these miraculous ‘green’ recovery jobs cost Americans like you and me a bare 500,000 dollars per job.

Guess what else? China now controls the world’s market on rare earth minerals. These are mineral elements used in strategic materials. We used to have one of the best sources of rare earth minerals in the world, until Senator Diane Feinstein and the late Alan Cranston locked them all away in another DeMarxist environmental hatchet job, so that her husband, Richard Blum, could make sweet business deals with the communist Chinese.

The ugly truth is that well over fourteen million jobs have been lost and Americans need Conservative leadership that’s going to work for us, not against us.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

When Howard Dean implemented his "50 State Strategy" most, including some in his own party, considered his plan to be unworkable and more importantly "unwinnable". After the resounding sweep of the Democrats in 2006 and Obama in 2008, the RNC has only feebly attempted to replicate this strategy.

From Wikipedia:

"As chairman of the party, Dean created and employed the '50 State Strategy' that attempted to make Democrats competitive in normally conservative states often dismissed in the past as 'solid red.' The success of the strategy became apparent after the 2006 midterm elections, where Democrats took back the House and picked up seats in the Senate from normally Republican states such as Missouri and Montana. In the 2008 election, Barack Obama used 'The 50 state strategy' as the backbone of his candidacy."

As the November 2010 mid-term elections rapidly approaches it  is now even more important to focus on every race, every state, and every primary. Blogger Melissa Clouthier describes the problem in the Republican party:

"The Republicans conceding in between elections as well as races, themselves, has been a tremendous source of irritation. It is one thing to microtarget and write off a district because it’s 'unwinnable'. The problem is that too many areas were written off that could, in this election, be won. And now, with no foundation there, it makes the task of winning more difficult. Texas isn’t the only place this has happened. In fact, this is a problem nationwide for Republicans. With a lack of organization and get out the vote effort and the lack of relationship building, many potentially winnable races will be lost simply because there is no there, there. It’s been conceded."

Clouthier's article includes a review of a primary race in a solidly red state of Georgia. In Georgia's 12th Congressional district candidate Ray McKinney is running a tight primary race against former fire chief Carl Smith, Jr. McKinney, a former supporter of Smith, has run a solid campaign while Smith has been embroiled in a number of ethical situations reminiscent of Democrat candidates. This is where the problem lies, as the Tea Party activists have become more politically savvy, every candidate must be held to a higher standard. To ensure a government that is free of corruption, the people must be willing to expose those within their own party whose actions are not aligned with our values.

According to the Savannah Business Journal:

"On June 9, Thunderbolt Town Council terminated Smith’s $52,000 a year position as Thunderbolt’s Fire Chief. The reasons behind the termination have publicly varied – officially it's financial reasons, unofficially Smith took too much time off to campaign, and to Smith it’s all politically motivated..."

According to local reports, Smith was advised by former congressional candidate Wayne Mosley, members of the 12th District executive board, and Ray McKinney, that to avoid appearance of conflict of interest, he should resign as Fire Chief to run for Congress. Obviously Smith declined that advice and now there are allegations by concerned citizens in the district that not only was Smith an absentee fire chief but that he may have violated the Hatch Act.

Part of the 50 page watchdog report states:

" The Hatch Act of 1939 was introduced to prevent corruption in government and elections. Its main provision prevents federal employees from engaging in partisan political activity. However, it also applies to employees of state and local governments.....

Currently in Georgia’s 12th congressional district, a public official who has applied for and received federal funds in his capacity as chief of the Thunderbolt Fire Department is in violation of the Hatch Act."

The report alleges that Smith, in his role as Fire Chief, used his office, uniform, and vehicle to campaign for public office in violation of the Hatch Act. Evidence included screen shots of Smith's website which show him in various official uniforms on his campaign website and in fund raising letters like the ones below.

The report also includes information on the Federal funds that Smith had either applied or lobbied for in his capacity as Thunderbolt Fire Chief.

As the report points out, politicians in others states have been found in violation of the Hatch act for amounts less than shown above and in one instance, the state of Utah must either forfeit federal funds or force a state senator to resign.

Ray McKinney's camp is taking this primary seriously and according to the Savannah Business Journal, has raised $100,000 already. McKinney, who I met at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in April, and again in DC over dinner, has been endorsed by local Tea Party groups and One Nation PAC,  has been praised by the NRA and has a plan to clean up the Gulf oil spill.

Character counts in selecting elected officials and Republicans must be willing to recognize the early signs of susceptibility to corruption within our ranks. When representatives go across the aisle on votes like Cap and Trade or Wall Street reform, voters are left wondering what happened. That's why every race counts. ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, operated under the idea that “all politics is local.” As seen in other districts like California's 37th Congressional district where Star Parker is running to unseat Representative Laura Richardson, a corrupt local politician can became a national problem with the outcome of one election.

If Republicans introduce their own problem candidate into the November 2010 election, they run the risk of handing that district over to a Democrat who will capitalize on Smith's current troubles.

Smith's ethical issues only highlight McKinney as the viable candidate and a costly run-off will distract from the main goal for putting the Democrat candidate on the defensive. If Republicans unite in GA-12, McKinney is the best choice for a sustainable conservative majority. To donate or find out more information about McKinney, go here. Every race, every state.