Rust Belt

As you know, I really think McCain needs to look outside the box for a Vice Presidential pick. I had earlier suggested someone whom I think could be a "game changer" , albeit someone with zero elective experience http://www.thenextright.com/ironman/an-out-box-veep-choice-mac

I still think Team Mac is looking in that direction to an extent, and much of the recent buzz has been about female elected Republicans. I must admit the "Drill Now" agenda makes Sarah Palin a more plausible choice then she started the year.

The problem in the Veepstakes is the election is going to be decided in Ohio and Michigan, and perhaps a handful of other similar states (PA, WI, MO, MN). http://www.thenextright.com/chris-palko/the-big-ten-strategy 

Let's look at the alleged "short list" candidates. Tim Pawlenty clearly fits the bill as someone who has a track record of attracting blue collar Midwestern voters, but he is unlikely to flip MN and has no specific appeal in the M/O/P region.  I also wonder if some folks might be uneasy making him the "on-deck batter" for '12 or '16?

Mitt Romney might well flip MI, and that is huge. But might he water down the McCain message of not being a traditional Republican?  Do Huckabee people tune out seeing Mitt "on deck"?    

Mike Huckabee would create serious angst among fi-cons not happy to see him "on-deck". I also firmly believe much of America is tired at this moment of socially conservative southern protestant men. I think Huck makes flipping PA or MI harder, and I'm not sure how much he helps in OH.    

Tom Ridge might flip PA, but at the expense of much time and effort spent dealing with frustrated conservatives, which then might make holding other states (VA, MO) tougher.

Now some people have suggested given Ohio's uberimportance that John Kasich or Rob Portman are the answer. Nope. OH has 18 congresspeople and six significant media markets. I doubt few ordinary people outside their home region know these guys. Besides, Kasich has been out of office for eight years and Portman works in the Bush White House, which is not exactly a selling point at the moment.

So, here's the problem. We need someone who can appeal to Rust Belt voters, hopefully by sharing some ethnicity or having a track record on economic issues.

A business background becomes highly useful when the economy is skyrocketing to the top of the opinion charts---and our opponent's record is that of shaking down Chicago businesses to no discernable effect to the local economy. 

Someone unlikely to overshadow Romney or Huckabee might be good so they feel like they are not having their future shot impeded. On that point, counterintuituvely an old guy might work best, as it would also reinforce McCain's experience and maturity theme, especially if a newbie like Sebelius or Casey, Jr. is Obama's wingman.   

A good candidate would have demonstated an ability to win moderate votes while also glueing up the loose planks on some of McCain's platform (i.e. immigration in particular).

So is there a "dark horse" from outside the M/O/P region who might have some appeal to the voters therein?

Yes, Rhode Island Governor Don Carcieri.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Carcieri

Lets' get the "known known" liabilities out of the way quickly.

a) He's old (65)

b) We are not winning RI or its immediate neighbors

c) He is nationally unknown

Now, the pluses:

a) He will not present an obstacle for younger conservatives in future elections

b) He has a long background in business and finance predating his political career; unlike the other "short list" folks beside Romney

c)He endorsed Romney. Chalk one up for party unity. Plus he's clearly pro-life. No walkout potential here. Nonetheless, he won twice in the nation's most Democratic state, so he has proven ability to get moderate and independent voters.

d) He is vocally pro-enforcement on immigration laws and might be a bridge to the anti-amnesty folks who see TV ads praising hispanic soldiers as proof Mac is still gonna do open borders.

e) We are contending against the most exotic candidate ever for President. Someone who lives in thesame  town he was born in  (East Greenwich, RI) is a pretty stark constrast.

e) Most importantly, he is an Italian American.. The #3 state in the nation for Italian Americans in PA,  OH is #8, and MI is #10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_American#State_totals

Beyond the regional impact, on a hyperlocal basis, the Italian population is heavily centered in the most politically criitical suburban and industrial counties in these states.  MI's key swing county, Macomb, is 14% Italian American. 

The suburban counties east of Cleveland are heavily Italian, as is the Mahoning Valley. 

PA is perhaps the most impressive example, as the politically crucial suburban belt around Philadelphia is between 14% and 19% Italian; and they are the largest single ethnic voting bloc across the western portion of the state. http://www.niaf.org/research/2000_census_1.asp http://ancestrymaps.com/2000Maps/Italian/ManifoldCountyMaps/NationalItalian.htm

(outside the Rust Belt, Italians are a substantial voting bloc in two other swing states: the Palm Beach-Ft. Lauderdale region of FL and the southern tier of NH)  

I know the inevitable "Soprano" jokes will occur. Mark my words from someone with an Italian-American sister in law....the best way to ensure a bloc vote is to insult a fellow Italian over the Mafia.

Unlike many other "dark horse" candidates I can identify a tangible demographic upside to Don Carcieri. What's John Thune's upside?.....are ranchers a critical bloc vote in the Cleveland suburbs.?..methinks not.

I hope that Team Mac gives Don Carcieri a long look. I hope Team Obama keeps giving Chris Dodd a long look (even though the state senator from his old home town trashed him last night  http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2008/07/edith-prague-says-obama-should.html)... and I hope they do no oppo on this guy so we can get a "clean" launch should we pick him.  

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A few days someone made a suggestion about "Five Places McCain should go."

Well, it inspired me, and for the 4th of July I realized that Independence Hall in Philadelphia was a must visit (Yes, we know some other candidate made a briefly significant speech there this spring, and that would be great juxtaposition).

A candidate who will be stressing a lifetime of service to his fellow countrymen could have no better backdrop for a big rally celebrating the theme of patriotism and self-sacrifice.

But when McCain gets there and how he gets there is rather important.  The most important stretch in this campaign may well be the 4-5 days immediately after the GOP convention in early September. At that point McCain will have the attention of the mainstream media.

So how do we take advantage of this? Well, the trademarks of McCain's campaigns have been bus tours. No need to change.

And directly between St. Paul and Philadelphia are four of the most critical states for the McCain campaign--Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  

Some Blue Staters are making the case that the DC v. Heller decision is a benefit for Barack Obama, since it gave the gun owning community the result they wanted. See here, the usually sensible Jeff Jacoby in the Boston Globe

By ending the debate over whether the Second Amendment confers an individual right to own guns, the justices have just made it safer for gun owners to vote Democratic. McCain cheered the court's ruling, but Obama may prove the biggest winner of all.

 http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/06/29/a_silver_bullet_for_obama/

The problem with this argument is the rather obvious fact to any casual observer that the right to bear arms was upheld by a single vote. Had Chief Justice Roberts cobbled together a 6-3 or 7-2 majority for even a more milquetoast affirmance of the DC Circuit, this issue would have been put to bed once and for all.  Alas, Justice Breyer has preserved the political relevance of the National Rifle Association.

A number of other obvious facts come to mind. As President, Barack Obama would certainly nominate clones of Justice Breyer and we can assume from past performance the GOP senate caucus would rubber stamp any nominee barring an ethical meltdown.  Justice Scalia is not getting any younger and is probably even odds to retire within the next eight years, and the sad demise of Tim Russert at 58 means we can't guarantee Roberts, Alito and Thomas longevity. So a President Obama would place Heller in a position to be overruled or emasculated by a future court,(just as Lawrence overruled Bowers) and this is easy to figure out.. Folks like Jacoby seriously underestimate the sophistication of the sportsman's lobby, but what else is new?

Looking politically Chris Palko accurately points out that the presidential election will be decided in the "Big Ten" states.   http://www.thenextright.com/blog/579 . What do we know about these states? Well, they have powerful pro-gun  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50527-2004Oct21.html  and pro-life http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE4D6133FF93AA25754C0A964958260 voter blocs.

They have not been associated with affirmative action. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/us/politics/09michigan.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/L/Lewin,%20Tamar .

 The blue collar electorates in these states also have been  opposed to open borders  http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2007/11/ohio_voters_weigh_in_on_immigr.html and gay marriage http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/01/22/loc_gaymarriage.html 

Needless to say, judicial nominees favored by Senator Obama http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020846.php would be almost certain to rule adversely to public opinion on these issues.  We have heard little from the constitutional law scholar on whether he favors popular supremacy or judicial supremacy, or on whether he believes in a "living constitution".  And these argument may be a bit abstract. But putting a name and a face on the table isn't.

Mac's campaign hasn;t shown a lot of message discipline, so let me suggest some for him. Right after the V.P. selection he ought to announce who is his pick for the first Supreme Court vacancy he will fill as President.  This person ought to be a rock solid conservative legal thinker, but with real world legal experience. The nominee ought not to be a white male. And the nominee should have a track record of proven electoral success in a politically important state.

There is such a person. She is a former urban criminal court judge. She has won a statewide judicial election. Her legal opinions are sound and based on textual interpretation of the law, not something akin Justice Kennedy's sense of 'standards of decency".  She is in her early 50's and could serve a long time. Her nomination to the federal bench was supported by prominent local Democrats. She is a Catholic from a blue collar region.

John McCain should announce that Diane Sykes, Judge of U.S. 7th Circuit Court, will be his most likely choice for a Supreme Court vacancy.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_S._Sykes http://www.fjc.gov/servlet/tGetInfo?jid=3074

The bottom line here is we put our cards right out on the table. The Obama camp will be forced to present their favored candidate. If they go for a Souter-esq cipher the netroots  will howl about betrayal; if they advance a liberal the emptiness of Obama's rhetoric on recent cases will be betrayed. If they choose not to play this game and attack Sykes they will alienate professional women, Catholics and WI voters.  

Also, demographically Judge Sykes, a suburban Rust Belt Catholic woman is exactly the "sweet spot" in the 2008 American electorate. 

The McCain camp needs to put the choice squarely before the American public. I have faith if they do so, they will be rewarded.  Trying to win this battle over semantics and abstractions is a far dicier proposition.