Sam Caligiuri

Ultra liberal Chris Murphy is trying the Big Con for CT voters. We can call him on it. And we need to do it now.

Chris Murphy's closing argument in his flagging bid for re-election is that he represents the "pragmatic center" of American politics. This is a place he visits only after Labor Day on even numbered years.

I call B.S. on this. Let's count the ways Murphy is far to the Left in American politics--even beyond the usual Nancy Pelosi foot soldier.

Terrorism

Chris Murphy thinks our efforts to keep Americans safe should be micromanaged by lawyers and run in a fashion so as to not to offend foreign press.

Murphy is one of the most vocal opponents of the use of warrantless wiretaps to obtain information to thwart terrorist threats. We do not know the precise manner this past week effort to blow up Jewish houses of worship with mail bombs was foiled, but do we want to hamstring the people who keep us safe? Murphy evidently does.

Worse still, he favored letting the telecom firms that assisted the War on Terror face ruinous lawsuits from lefty lawyers 

Erick Erickson at Red State has more on this point.

Murphy is also one of the firmest opponents of keeping the detention facility at Gitmo open. What he suggests we do with the jihadists we do not know.

Health Care

Chris Murphy has a problem with the health care bill. He doesn;t think it went far enough. He is a strong supporter of the public option. And why?  Because last year he told the Meriden Record Journal  "I'm haven't given up on private insurance" while claiming the public sector could provide the same service better.  

There are tens of thousands of private insurance jobs in CT. What a joy to know our Congressman isn't ready "yet" to have the federal government put them all out of business.   Murphy went to some tony college in the UK for awhile; perhaps he became enamored of the NHS and socialized medicine while over there.

Netroots

If you are an ally of Kos, you are not a Blue Dog, a New Democrat, or a fiscal conservative. You have decided to ally yourself with folks who think the Democratic Party has not yet moved far enough to the Left. 

Chris Murphy was a lead speaker at Kos' Netroots Nation convention. He wants to be the "tip of the spear" advancing the liberal agenda through Congress.

He told MSMBC that after he and his colleagues got past the voters in November they would return with "steel in their spine" ready to cast more tough votes against the wishes of their constituents.

So Murphy is following the playbook. talking left outside the district, talking right inside the district, and planning to do whatever he pleases if he is returned to office.

That, by the way, will be to abandon his work as a House member and start his 2012 senate campaign against Joe Lieberman.  Of course, CT observers have noticed that if Murphy loses tomorrow, he's probably all done for 2012.

Conclusion

There are plenty of Democrats who are going to lose. Many are well meaning and misguided. But as for a toxic cocktail of ambition, ideology and insincerity there are none more deserving of defeat than Connecticut's Chris Murphy. 

If you agree go to www.samforcongress.com 

Remember  back in the summer, when liberals were thinking the election was just a speed bump on the way to a more statist America?

Oh, yes, the Netroots of the far Left do. And remember wistfully their "Tip of the Spear" symposium at Netroots Nation.  At a posh Vegas hotel, the true believers huddled to determine how they could get President Obama and Speaker Pelosi to enact programs even more liberal than what had been passed in 2009-10.

Two Congressman decided that hanging with lefty activists was more important than working back in their districts for their own re-election.  My Congressman, Chris Murphy, obviously found "the Strip' more alluring than fielding questions about closed businesses on Straits Turnpike.

He was joined by AZ's favorite open borders fanatic, Congressman Raul Grijalva

Murphy was living in his own world in Vegas, self-assured that liberals were on their way to inevitable success

"I would hope that the movement continues to understand that what we’re trying to do is supposed to be hard," said Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who was first elected in 2006. "What I worry sometimes is that people who come into the Netroots community, when they don’t get an immediate victory… they walk away. The frustration level builds rather quickly."

Giving an upbeat scenario for Election Day, Murphy said, "When we retain the House, some members are going to come back with some extra steel in their spines, having cast some tough votes and having survived what’s likely the toughest election of their career."

"Some members don’t want to cast tough votes before November," Murphy said, but he argued "that doesn’t mean that permanently excludes the ability to vote on things like immigration reform and energy."

Well, he got Congressional cowardice right. In fact, by voting to adjourn prior to voting on tax relief extension he was an eager participant. As for the election predictions, well let's say Charlie Cook and Nate Silver ain't buying it.

And Murphy's own constituents's aren't buying the extreme liberalism, the extreme partisanship, the pandering double talk, and the take it for granted attitude of Chris Murphy. 

In an independent poll, Murphy is losing by 50%-44%  National Review says the "dam has burst."

Maybe the 5th District has decided Chris Murphy can take that "steel in his spine" and , hmmm, put it somewhere else?

Oh poor Chris, after going to Vegas to tell lefties to put steel in their spine and reject moderate policies he's trying to claim back here in Connecticut he wants to work with Republicans.   Please. We can use the Internet , too. Selling a bridge?

As for Murphy's buddy in Arizona, he's lost favor with his voters in a gerrymandered Democratic district.  He leads by a mere 7 points. Some people don't like it when a Congressman calls for his own state to be boycotted.

On November 2, voters will be able to make a positive change for America. We will effect a bigger change not by just knocking out the craven and cowardly Blue Dogs, but by making sure that when Markos looks for politicians for next year's Netroots Nation no one more prominent than a college town councilman shows up.

Yep, let's give Chris Murphy and Raul Grijalva the tip of OUR spear. 

Go Sam Caligiuri

The anecdotal signs for liberal Chris Murphy's re-election are not good.

A poll conducted by a firm that works with Republican politicians found that Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy and his challenger, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, R-Waterbury, are in a statistical dead heat in their 5th District race.

The highlights

Today the Caligiuri Campaign released poll results showing that Sam Caligiuri, the Republican Nominee for Congress (CT-5), is a single point behind Chris Murphy. This amounts to a statistical tie. In a head-to-head matchup, 39% of respondents favored Caligiuri while 40% favored Murphy. This represents a huge gain for Caligiuri and a significant loss for Murphy, as Murphy was leading Caligiuri 49% to 28% in an October 2009 poll conducted by the same firm. . . . In the hard re-elect question, only 36% believe Chris Murphy has performed his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election, while 45% think it’s time for a new person. In an ominous sign for the party in power, only 29% of voters believe the county is heading in the right direction, while 63% believe things are off on the wrong track. This number has gotten worse over the past 10 months: In October, 2009, the right direction/wrong track number was 35%-54%. The generic ballot favors Republicans, 41%-38%. Among unaffiliated voters, the generic Republican leads 38%-32%.

The campaign manager for Murphy, former lead political advisor for convicted Hartford Mayor Eddie Perez, went into a tirade about the poll results. Of course, he failed to release to the media any of the alleged polls he had that supposedly put his candidate way ahead.  Lack of exculpatory evidence got his old boss convicted, hmmm...

In any event, Courant columnist Rick Green, no pushover for spin, seemed satisfied the Caligiuri poll passed the smell test.

In Murphy world the Connecticut economy is recovering nicely and everyone loves a congressman who is a rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi.  And jeez, I recall when the Left called itself the "reality-based community". That's a quaint thought now--it reminds me of when there was full employment in this part of Connecticut--27,000 jobs ago.   

Sam Caligiuri has surged into a tie before airing TV ads. It's only gonna get better, my friends.

Once upon a time there was a Democratic politician named Chris Murphy who, before he got elected to Congress, made a point of how much time he spent walking around his district and talking to  indivdual people.  

Yep, lots of stuff about "listening to people" "crossing party lines",and "knowing about individual towns".  People tired of politicians "talking at people".

That was Chris Murphy trying to get elected. What does Murphy do while in office?

Well, he isn't crossing party lines since he supports Nancy Pelosi 99% of the time.

And he isn;t listening to people in his district anymore.  Remember last year's health care faceoff at the Simsbury Stop & Shop?

Not this summer ! He's doing "telephone town halls" so he can sit out of sight behind a screener.

And how can he listen to ordinary CT voters when he spent the weekend away from his wife and infant son to hang with the Netroots Nation at a swanky Las Vegas hotel?

Chris Murphy has decided he needs the far extreme liberal elements of the Democratic Party more than he needs the ordinary voters of Connecticut.  The Kos and Huffington caucus is now his political base, not western CT.  

Murphy isn't running for Congress anymore, he wants to pick up the torch carried by Ned Lamont  run for the Senate and be the hard-line "progressive" opponent to Joe Lieberman,

He lamented the lack of liberal arbor in the upper house at this little soiree hosted by the Kossacks

 This discussion of lessons learned in 2009 and 2010 about engaging with Congress to advance progressive policies will include emphasis on the Congressional Progressive Caucus and draw contrast with the Blue Dogs. We'll have a frank discussion of how House progressives choose issues to organize around; factors that increase or decrease the likelihood of successful organizing around an issue; the mechanics of moving policy through Congress, and where key leverage points for the Netroots are; case studies on healthcare reform and Afghanistan; House-Senate dynamics and what changes can be made to push progressive ideas more successfully onto the President's desk.

I note one of Murphy's co-panelists was Rep. Raul Grijalva, one of the leading opponents of the Arizona immigration enforcement law.  Amnesty much, Chris?

It's interesting Murphy spent the weekend hobnobbing with powerful liberals in Nevada, a state with 14% unemployment. He might have needed to go that far away to escape the 14% unemployment in Waterbury and the 12% unemployment in New Britain; issues he might care about if he deigned to commune with the commoners he claims to "represent".

The 2006 version Chris Murphy mouthed some words that matter. It is time to change the tone in Congress. It's time to elect citizen legislators who really care about their constituents, not use them as stepping stone to personal political glory.

In 1996 5th District Republican Gary Franks started his 1998 senate campaign before his House re-election. He was defeated. Same story, different year?  

A real down to earth candidate, Sam Caligiuri, wants Murphy's job. If elected, I am reasonably sure he will be spending his time in Newtown and New Fairfield, not Nevada. 

By now the world has heard that the principal behind the Daily Kos website is suing his old pollster for selling him doctored surveys.

Now one is likely to grab the popcorn and watch the top liberal blogger eat crow and take his pollster to court, but a Republican also hired Research 2000 to get polls promoting his agenda.  And much as Kos determined his pollster was manufacturing polls to tell him what he wanted to hear, I suspect that the same game was afoot here in CT 5.

In January, candidate Justin Bernier released a poll to the press with great fanfare. This poll purported to tell people that surprisingly Bernier, a first time candidate. was more electable in the 5th District than an incumbent state Senator, Sam Caligiuri.  

According to results released by Maryland-based polling company Research 2000 on Jan. 10, voters in the state’s 5th Congressional District favor Bernier over rival Sam Caligiuri by a margin of 36 percent to 15 percent

Somehow, an elected official from the district's largest city would lose two to one to a first time candidate who wasn't a statewide celebrity. Go figure.  The smell test simply wasn't passed with this poll.

If the intent of the Research 2000 poll was to cause Republican activists to flock to Bernier over Caligiuri it was an epic fail. Caligiuri defeated Bernier over 2 to 1 at the convention causing Bernier to soldier on to a primary August 10. Either 200 of 300 delegates didn't believe the poll or an accurate poll would find them unrepresentative of the communities that sent them to the convention.   My nickel then was on the bad poll theory.  I've been proven right. 

Perhaps Bernier's decision to primary Caligiuri was based on believing this poll. If so , he ought to reconsider what he is going to achieve continuing a losing contest.  At the very least he ought to do what Kos did and admit he was scammed, and unintentionally tried to sell the press and the public a bill of goods.

The only beneficiary from this is going to be liberal Democrat incumbent Chris Murphy. Which also suggests that using Kos's pollster might perhaps have given the Left an opportunity to toss some disinformation into this race.  When weird things happen, I ask who they help.  The Research 2000 poll was intended to hurt the strongest GOP candidate in CT 5. Occam's razor anyone? 

While CT's had it's share of scoundrels elected to office through the years, the actual mechanics of elections here have been pretty clean. The exceptions have been urban Democratic areas where dead people have maintained their franchise via absentee ballot fraud. But first we had ACORN and their wave of spurious registrants in 2008. And now similar practices may be seeping into the Republican primary in the 5th District. 

Enter Mark Greenberg. At some point Mark Greenberg entered CT from NY after making lots of money in Gotham real estate. Mr. Greenberg took no role in local affairs besides contributing to an animal shelter. He never worked for a local Republican campaign nor wrote any checks to any of our candidates. No letters to the editor supporting Republican causes or candidates either. At some point after Scott Brown's victory speech Mr. Greenberg became convinced an outsider should be CT 5's next Congressman and he would spent over a million dollars to do that. His platform is boilerplate GOP rhetoric unleavened by any data points of performance. 

Unfortunately for Greenberg, by that point State Senator Sam Caligiuri and State military liason Justin Bernier were already in the race and gaining endorsements and grassroots support.  So at the June convention, having convinced virtually no party activists to support his bid, Greenberg said he'd get on the primary ballot against Caligiuri and Bernier via petition.  Maybe a campaign noted only for push-polling the candidates in the race simply turned people off.

CT law allows someone without support at a party convention to qualifiy for a primary ballot by getting 2% of party members to sign a petition. In CT 5 that's about 2,000 names. CT law is also very specific about who is supposed to circulate petitions; they have to be circulated by a registered party member. And this person is supposed to personally witness each signature on the petition to prevent fraud.

Mr. Greenberg didn't feel the need to follow the traditional way to do business as, lacking a true base of local support, he hired out-of-state vendors to corral signatures. And this is where the train jumps the tracks.

A single Greenberg supporter claims on the petitions to have personally witnessed 975 of the over 2,000 Greenberg signatures. He claims he personally circulated petitions in 25 of the 33 district towns where signatures were collected.  CT 5 is a sprawling district running about 60 miles from end to end; and mere mortals cannot ascertain how the space/time continuum was bend to enable this to occur.  

Occam's Razor tells us this is simply ACORN style chicanery.  The simplest explanation is Greenberg gave the petition forms to folks hired from Nevada and Colorado, sent them off to town greens and strip malls to get names, and then had the forms returned to his one local zealot so he could fraudulently affirm he personally witnessed the signatures.

(Apparently a Southbury Republican saw one of the petitions being circulated by a dude from Las Vegas, and recognized the name on the form as the alleged circulator as being a guy from Woodbury, CT; whom the Nevadan admitted he was not)  

The State Elections Enforcement Commission is presently trying to ascertain if there's enough fire here to take action. But only the most credulous person would fail to see the billowing smoke.

Mark Greenberg couldn't get on the ballot at the convention. He doesn't have enough real local Republicans supporting him to get legitimate petitions signed. So like a liberal Democrat he bent the rules and threw money at the problem so he could pretend it was addressed. Following the law must be a mark of being a terrible political insider.

Sorry Mark, maybe that's the way people get on the ballot in NY but in CT we like to support people who take the rules seriously and play by the rules. And if you won't play by the rules in your campaign, it's pretty obvious that in the unlikely event you were to be elected to Congress you'd be part of the problem, not part of the solution.

To paraphrase Alabama candidate Dale Peterson, "we're Connecticut Republicans, we're better than this.". Mark Greenberg ought to take no for an answer, and stand down before the full scope of his ACORN style ballot fraud gets fully exposed.

The decision of Governor Jodi Rell not to seek re-election and the response of the donor class to the millions already spent by senate candidate Linda McMahon has created a mad scramble in Connecticut Republican politics.

The first shot was fired by state Republican chairman Chris Healy in urging senate candidate Sam Caligiuri to change races from challenging Chris Dodd to Congressman Chris Murphy.  After some time to consider the summons, Caligiuri announced he was switching gears and taking on Murphy.

It's unfortunate that a proven, electable conservative failed to gain traction in Connecticut, but the entry of McMahon and her willingness to spend a virtually inexhaustable amount of cash appears to have closed checkbooks across CT.  Contributors simply thought a House race was a better investment of their resources than trying to outpace both frontrunner Rob Simmons and a human ATM; like it or not, the political marketplace has spoken.    

Another, better funded Republican Senate candidate appears to have gotten the same message,  Former Ambassador Tom Foley announced he was likely to quit the Senate race and throw his hat into the open Governor's race; where as of yet the putative candidate was Lt. Governor Mike Fedele.  Foley actually had a decent lead on Dodd in the last poll, and it may be harder for the Democrats to attack Foley's role in the Iraqi reconstruction effort in a state level race than a Senate race. 

It has been argued--and denied-- that all these maneuvers are being orchestrated by State party chairman Chris Healy, who insists he is not "moving chess pieces across the board".  Unfortunately for the Democrats, we have the political version of the "Deep Blue" program at work.

In the space of a couple of weeks, CT Republicans may have clarified their previously chaotic U.S. Senate primary situation--leaving a de facto two person race;  drawn a candidate capable of matching Ned Lamont dollar for dollar into the Governor's race; and turned up the heat early on Chris Murphy in the state's most conservative House district.

This is probably in sum good news for Rob Simmons; he probably faced greater risk of losing a multicandidate primary where many old-style Republicans would vote for Foley or Caligiuri; especially given Rob's moderate past.  The history of upstarts ousting frontrunners in New England GOP primaries isn't promising for McMahon, who would be well advised to shut down third party speculation by using her own lips; instead of hiding behind flacks.  One impediment to such a bid would be CT state law now requires would be aspirant to be in the process of filing third party papers in advance of a primary, (the Democrats were a bit chagrined by Joe Lieberman in 2006)

But while there may be method to the CT GOP's madness, the Democrats are facing simple chaos theory.  Ralph Nader may enter the Senate race against Dodd as a third party candidate.  No wonder the CT Democrats are left flailing away against the Q Poll....

maybe they just "can't handle the truth"

Chris Dodd has a polling profile reminscent of NJ Governor Jon Corzine. He's behind, he's been behind for a long while, and the poll internals indicate he's likely to stay behind.

Given that the election is less than a year away, how could Dodd eke out a victory?

Have an opponent with high negatives. Thankfully for him, one is already in the race.

Five Republicans are in the race now. Former Congressman Rob Simmons has yet to run TV ads, but has residual name ID in central and eastern CT from his days in Congress. He is leading  Dodd by 11 points.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has run TV ads . He is leading Dodd by 7 points.

The other three candidates--Linda McMahon, Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff--all are in effective dead heats with Dodd in the 43-41% range.  So they are equal, right?

No. McMahon is the weakest of the lot.  Neither Caligiuri or Schiff have spent dime one on TV ads, while McMahon has blanketed the state--even running ads on NYC TV. Yet she fares no better than the more frugal candidates in the race.

The secret here is while McMahon is buying name recognition, much of it is already negative. 

According to Quinnipiac Simmons's image is now 40% favorable , 10% unfavorable. His rating with unaffiliated voters is 42% favorable- 7% unfavorable.

Linda McMahon did not make such a good first impression.    She rates at 20% favorable to 13% unfavorable.  14% of unaffiliates and 15% of men already have a negative impression of the wrestling mogul.

Amazingly, more people in CT dislike Linda McMahon after a few weeks in elective politics than dislike Rob Simmons after nearly 20 years at  the trade.

The rule of thumb is that a challenger's early numbers usually have to run 2 to 1 favorable to have a shot at an incumbent. McMahon's slick campaign ain't getting the split she needs. And Lord knows what's going to happen if and when Dodd unloads some negatives on her. Sure she'll have plenty of cash to respond, but methinks Chris Dodd will enjoy the mudfest. It's not like his numbers can go much further down.

Now one would think Dodd's dream---a rookie opponent with high and rising negatives--couldn't come true. But it might due to the quirks of the CT GOP and our geography.

Rob Simmons is very well known in eastern CT, which does not have many registered Republicans.  But he is not well known in heavily Republican Fairfield County, which is served by NYC TV.    McMahon's been on those stations; Simmons never has.

I suspect the reason the ballot test for the CT primary is now 28% Simmons - 17% McMahon is heavily due to Simmons having low visibility in the southwestern part of CT.

So all of McMahon's millions got her the same ballot test as the candidates not spending money, and the highest negative ratings in the Republican field.

I suggest CT Republicans take a long hard look at these poll internals. When a candidate makes a tepid first impression, it usually doesn;t improve by just pouring resources into the same suboptimal message.

And if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of the weakened Dodd now after spending millions, why would she be when her negatives inevitably rise?

Let's not do Chris Dodd any favors, please

The Latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and Dodd is still down.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

He loses as well to Linda McMahon and Tom Foley, and is in a dead heat with Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff

Why?  Because CT voters don;t find him trustworthy and don't think he cares about their issues.They also don;t think he's doing a a good job on the economy.

Support for the Democratic health plan, although higher here than most places, is slipping.

The good news for Dodd, if any, is that Simmons does face a primary challenge of significance from the "Wild RINO". But in a matter of weeks she's raised her negative rating almost as fast as her positive rating. Oops!

Chris Christie had a primary too, Didn;t help Corzine. And the pattern of Q polls on Dodd is looking more and more like the pattern of polls on Corzine before his failed re-election bid.

In the wake of NY 23  all eyes pointed to the Club for Growth to ascertain where they would jump in next to promote fiscally conservative candidates. And in light of this article, one wonders if they have CT in mind as one of their next venues  

Beyond Florida, other establishment Republicans may be looking over their shoulders. Chocola, a former House Republican from Indiana, noted that he served with Rep. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.), both running for the Senate.

“They’re both good guys, but they don’t fit the bill as Club for Growth candidates,” he said.

Before his organization decides to jump in, however, he said the group has to see how those races develop, and whether a clear “Club” alternative surfaces.

“The best Kirk and Simmons can expect is that we leave them alone,” Chocola said.

So, Simmons, who has had to revise prior positions on cap and trade; as well as card check, and recently made a rather conciliatory statement on the public option, might find himself not just  overlooked by the fiscal conservative masterminds, but even challenged by a serious committment of time and resources by the Club.  The Club may not always succeed, but their targets are always aware the Club tried.

So, who would the Club for Growth think would be a viable opponent for Chris Dodd?  Who is fiscally conservative enough to warrant their support, a candidate capable of actually winning against Dodd in the general election, and a candidate who actually could use their support?.

There are four other Republicans in the U.S. Senate race besides Simmons. I believe we can write off two names.  Linda McMahon is , of course, "the Wild RINO". Besides, why should the Club send some of its limited money to CT to subsidize a self-funding billionaire? 

Peter Schiff, the former Ron Paul advisor, is certainlly in favor of limited government, but his agenda is so doctrinaire as to make him a very poor investment of Club resources. Perhaps Idaho is ready for 180 proof libertarianism; CT, not so much. Besides, his campaign to date has just done moneybombs and has no traction on the ground.

That leaves Tom Foley and Sam Caligiuri. Foley has been running cute ads with babies, but he's never run a political campaign and whether he can win an election is an open question.

There's one candidate running in CT right now who a) has a proven record of fiscal conservatism and b) has a proven record of winning elections. That's Sam Caligiuri.

2010 might be exactly the year to run a state senator who stood up against a Governor in his own party to vote "no" on an ultimately disasterous state budget. And that made Sam Caligiuri the only CT State Senator to oppose a budget that left the state in a huge deficit. 

It might also be a good year to run a candidate who won a formerly Democratic legislative seat in the Democratic tsunami of 2006.      

And given the issue environment, it might make sense to run a candidate praised for his ability on the stump and described as a "proud Reagan Republican"

I have no idea what the decision making processes at the Club are. Certaintly Rob Simmons is a far cry from the elasticity of Charlie Crist--Simmons is a good guy and generally helpful to other Republicans.  But the Club is looking for alternative to the "Certified Pre-Owned Candidates".

Sam Caligiuri is the sort of guy they would be looking at in Connecticut. And, they did sound like they wanted to play, now didn't they?