Sam Caligiuri

Chris Dodd has a polling profile reminscent of NJ Governor Jon Corzine. He's behind, he's been behind for a long while, and the poll internals indicate he's likely to stay behind.

Given that the election is less than a year away, how could Dodd eke out a victory?

Have an opponent with high negatives. Thankfully for him, one is already in the race.

Five Republicans are in the race now. Former Congressman Rob Simmons has yet to run TV ads, but has residual name ID in central and eastern CT from his days in Congress. He is leading  Dodd by 11 points.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has run TV ads . He is leading Dodd by 7 points.

The other three candidates--Linda McMahon, Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff--all are in effective dead heats with Dodd in the 43-41% range.  So they are equal, right?

No. McMahon is the weakest of the lot.  Neither Caligiuri or Schiff have spent dime one on TV ads, while McMahon has blanketed the state--even running ads on NYC TV. Yet she fares no better than the more frugal candidates in the race.

The secret here is while McMahon is buying name recognition, much of it is already negative. 

According to Quinnipiac Simmons's image is now 40% favorable , 10% unfavorable. His rating with unaffiliated voters is 42% favorable- 7% unfavorable.

Linda McMahon did not make such a good first impression.    She rates at 20% favorable to 13% unfavorable.  14% of unaffiliates and 15% of men already have a negative impression of the wrestling mogul.

Amazingly, more people in CT dislike Linda McMahon after a few weeks in elective politics than dislike Rob Simmons after nearly 20 years at  the trade.

The rule of thumb is that a challenger's early numbers usually have to run 2 to 1 favorable to have a shot at an incumbent. McMahon's slick campaign ain't getting the split she needs. And Lord knows what's going to happen if and when Dodd unloads some negatives on her. Sure she'll have plenty of cash to respond, but methinks Chris Dodd will enjoy the mudfest. It's not like his numbers can go much further down.

Now one would think Dodd's dream---a rookie opponent with high and rising negatives--couldn't come true. But it might due to the quirks of the CT GOP and our geography.

Rob Simmons is very well known in eastern CT, which does not have many registered Republicans.  But he is not well known in heavily Republican Fairfield County, which is served by NYC TV.    McMahon's been on those stations; Simmons never has.

I suspect the reason the ballot test for the CT primary is now 28% Simmons - 17% McMahon is heavily due to Simmons having low visibility in the southwestern part of CT.

So all of McMahon's millions got her the same ballot test as the candidates not spending money, and the highest negative ratings in the Republican field.

I suggest CT Republicans take a long hard look at these poll internals. When a candidate makes a tepid first impression, it usually doesn;t improve by just pouring resources into the same suboptimal message.

And if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of the weakened Dodd now after spending millions, why would she be when her negatives inevitably rise?

Let's not do Chris Dodd any favors, please

The Latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and Dodd is still down.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

He loses as well to Linda McMahon and Tom Foley, and is in a dead heat with Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff

Why?  Because CT voters don;t find him trustworthy and don't think he cares about their issues.They also don;t think he's doing a a good job on the economy.

Support for the Democratic health plan, although higher here than most places, is slipping.

The good news for Dodd, if any, is that Simmons does face a primary challenge of significance from the "Wild RINO". But in a matter of weeks she's raised her negative rating almost as fast as her positive rating. Oops!

Chris Christie had a primary too, Didn;t help Corzine. And the pattern of Q polls on Dodd is looking more and more like the pattern of polls on Corzine before his failed re-election bid.

In the wake of NY 23  all eyes pointed to the Club for Growth to ascertain where they would jump in next to promote fiscally conservative candidates. And in light of this article, one wonders if they have CT in mind as one of their next venues  

Beyond Florida, other establishment Republicans may be looking over their shoulders. Chocola, a former House Republican from Indiana, noted that he served with Rep. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.), both running for the Senate.

“They’re both good guys, but they don’t fit the bill as Club for Growth candidates,” he said.

Before his organization decides to jump in, however, he said the group has to see how those races develop, and whether a clear “Club” alternative surfaces.

“The best Kirk and Simmons can expect is that we leave them alone,” Chocola said.

So, Simmons, who has had to revise prior positions on cap and trade; as well as card check, and recently made a rather conciliatory statement on the public option, might find himself not just  overlooked by the fiscal conservative masterminds, but even challenged by a serious committment of time and resources by the Club.  The Club may not always succeed, but their targets are always aware the Club tried.

So, who would the Club for Growth think would be a viable opponent for Chris Dodd?  Who is fiscally conservative enough to warrant their support, a candidate capable of actually winning against Dodd in the general election, and a candidate who actually could use their support?.

There are four other Republicans in the U.S. Senate race besides Simmons. I believe we can write off two names.  Linda McMahon is , of course, "the Wild RINO". Besides, why should the Club send some of its limited money to CT to subsidize a self-funding billionaire? 

Peter Schiff, the former Ron Paul advisor, is certainlly in favor of limited government, but his agenda is so doctrinaire as to make him a very poor investment of Club resources. Perhaps Idaho is ready for 180 proof libertarianism; CT, not so much. Besides, his campaign to date has just done moneybombs and has no traction on the ground.

That leaves Tom Foley and Sam Caligiuri. Foley has been running cute ads with babies, but he's never run a political campaign and whether he can win an election is an open question.

There's one candidate running in CT right now who a) has a proven record of fiscal conservatism and b) has a proven record of winning elections. That's Sam Caligiuri.

2010 might be exactly the year to run a state senator who stood up against a Governor in his own party to vote "no" on an ultimately disasterous state budget. And that made Sam Caligiuri the only CT State Senator to oppose a budget that left the state in a huge deficit. 

It might also be a good year to run a candidate who won a formerly Democratic legislative seat in the Democratic tsunami of 2006.      

And given the issue environment, it might make sense to run a candidate praised for his ability on the stump and described as a "proud Reagan Republican"

I have no idea what the decision making processes at the Club are. Certaintly Rob Simmons is a far cry from the elasticity of Charlie Crist--Simmons is a good guy and generally helpful to other Republicans.  But the Club is looking for alternative to the "Certified Pre-Owned Candidates".

Sam Caligiuri is the sort of guy they would be looking at in Connecticut. And, they did sound like they wanted to play, now didn't they?

We've learned more this week about liberal Republican wrestling promoter Linda McMahon, a/k/a "the Wild RINO"

For one thing, we've ascertained that she must be the Pinch Sulzberger approved Republican in the field of candidates in Connecticut. On Sunday, the New York Times decided to put its candidate profile of Mrs. McMahon on page A1 

A Senate Candidate Accustomed to Being Thrown in the Ring

“I don’t think anyone should ever question Linda’s resolve or tenacity,” said Dick Ebersol, the chairman of NBC Universal Sports, who has collaborated on projects with the McMahons. “If anybody thinks she is the little woman, they are out of their minds. She put the business together.”

OK, any question who the MSM is in the tank for in this race, folks?

Jeez, you wonder what's going through Rob Simmons's head about now. All he did was spend a career in the CIA and on Capitol Hill, a decade in the CT Legislature, won a Democrat congressional district three times, and he's been obscured by someone who produced a soap opera on steroids.   

What is not going through Republican minds in Connecticut is much respect for this stuff. Just this week, a legislator from McMahon's  home town endorsed the thoughtful conservative in the field,  State Senator Sam Caligiuri

 “Representative Camillo’s endorsement is very humbling. As a relative newcomer to the political scene, Fred brings the fresh perspective of an outsider who is very much in touch with the people he represents. The Greenwich community is fortunate to have such a bright, rising star representing them in the General Assembly, and I am honored to have his support,” said Caligiuri.

And McMahon's trouble extend to the stump. Here's what a Hartford Courant political reporter said of her appearance this week in Windsor. "her delivery is about as interesting as listening to an assistant principal read the morning announcements"

On the other hand, Caligiuri's performance won praise

 I'd give Caligiuri a B+ for his engaging, lively stump speech, which told us about how he snatched Waterbury from the jaws of corruption and reminded us of his immigrant roots. He's a proud Reagan Republican and he earns points for at least mentioning the achievement gap.

One of the reasons that McMahon is having problems on the stump is she keeps having to explain why she claims to be a Republican today despite having done little in the past to demonstrate a modicum of interest in the party's agenda or principles.

Here's another story about McMahon's painful performance in Windsor.  

The tens of thousands of dollars given to the Democratic party and Emanuel is simply the cost of doing business, McMahon said Thursday night following a meeting of the candidates at a Windsor restaurant.

“I’ve been the CEO of a publicly traded company, which has given money to both Democrats and Republicans,” McMahon said.

McMahon said it had nothing to do with politics or personal beliefs. She said she has known Rahm Emanuel’s brother, Ari Emanuel, for years.

Ari Emanuel runs a talent agency in Hollywood, California, which does business with WWE, she said. She said he called up and let her know his brother would be in Stamford and “may do a little arm twisting.” She said when she gave money to Emanuel, he was still a Congressman from Illinois, not the current president’s chief of staff.

OK, a billionaire who thinks throwing cash at liberal Democrats (Emanuel was getting Pelosi elected House Speaker at the time) is just a "cost of doing business" Now THERE'S a committed principled conservative if I ever heard one. Or perhaps she's a plant by her good friends the Emanuel family sent to muck up the Connecticut primary and save Chris Dodd's sorry keester.   

While we are on the topic of Rahm Emanuel and his brothers, maybe we could elicit an opinion from the Wild RINO on the topic of "death panels"....then again, she might think it's a new form of steel cage bout 

Maybe subsidizing leftists makes friends for Linda in Hollywood, the White House and with the New York Times, but it most certaintly is not endearing her to her opponents,

"For me it’s not just business,” former U.S. Congressman Rob Simmons said.

Simmons said McMahon’s donations undermined his efforts in 2006 and allowed his opponents, who are now expanding government to win elected office.

Simmons wasn't done

“If donating tens of thousands of dollars to Democrats was ‘the cost of doing business’ for Linda McMahon and her professional wrestling empire, one wonders what she aimed to get in return for her generosity. This sort of influence peddling would not make her ‘a different kind of Senator.’ It would make her exactly the same as the one we have.”

Sam Caligiuri wasn't very pleased with this lame effort to defend the indefensible, either. His spokeswomen issued this statement.

“What we’re hearing from Republicans as we travel around the state is that they are insulted by Ms. McMahon working against their efforts to elect Republicans, then trying to sweep these personal contributions under the rug as if no one would ever notice.  Pro wrestling might be fake, but this practice of choosing expediency over principle is the very real way in which Washington currently works, and is exactly what Sam is fighting to fix.  If McMahon is already a part of the problem, it is hard to believe she can ever become part of the solution,” said Grossman

Linda McMahon says she'll be a "different kind of Senator", but if that means she'll be a liberal glad-handing gazillionaire there's quite enough already, don'tcha think?  We need someone who cares more about folks in Hamden than Hollywood.

There's nothing "different" about hypocrisy in politicians, Linda

====UPDATE====

In this morning's' New London Day, a columnist suggests that McMahon will run a third party bid for the Senate similar to that of her political mentor, former liberal Connecticut Governor and WWE Board member Lowell Weicker

If this wouldn't be a premeditated sabotage of the effort to oust Chris Dodd, I don't know what else would be

Remember long ago when Chris Dodd first faltered in the polls.....like in the winter of '09.

It didn't get any better for him.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone poll finds that Republican challenger Rob Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% in an early look at next year’s potential match-up. Five percent (5%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are not sure.

 

While Simmons, a former congressman, is the strongest early challenger to the Democratic incumbent, there are several other Republicans in the running. Dodd finds himself essentially even with state Senator Sam Caligiuri, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley and Peter Schiff, the high-profile president of Euro Pacific Capital. In each of those match-ups, Dodd earns between 40% and 43% of the vote while the Republicans all fall in the same range.

Rasmussen's internals are rather gruesome ,too, as 39% of CT voters have a "very unfavorable" opinion of Dodd. Mind you, this is in a state whether both President Obama and his health care plan are still fairly well received as per Rasmussen.

You have to wonder what Dodd has to do to make his neighbors feel the love again. He's had a tremendous amount of press over the last few weeks dealing with his recovery from prostate cancer    , getting a dismissal of a an ethics complaint,  his eulogy for his best bud Teddy Kennedy, 

and getting a health care bill out of the committee he was running for Ted.

And it didn't move the needle a millimeter.

Yep, looks like this sign might be true.

A few weeks ago, Chris Dodd was eager to take over the official chairmanship of the Senate Health, Education Labor and Pensions Committee as a tribute to his good friend Ted Kennedy, so as to continue Ted's life work of bringing socialized medicine to the United States.

Tonight, Dodd decided to stay with the sinking ship he's already been piloting, the Senate Banking Committee 

This is quite a surprise, since the conventional wisdom just days ago was the Dodd would benefit politically from quitting the Committee responsible for the 2008 Financial Meltdown and going to the committee that is writing the Ted Kennedy Memorial Health Care bill. (not that anyone can figure out exactly what it says, anyway)

So what happened?

Maybe Dodd decided that being blamed for only one sinking ship was enough, and once Obamacare sank it would be wise to be out of the line of sight when folks went looking for scapegoats.

What also happened is one of Dodd's Republican opponents, Sam Caligiuri,  has been hammering Dodd for trying to run two committees at once, and failing at both jobs. 

I  am calling on Senator Dodd to decline the position of the HELP Committee Chairman, if it is offered to him. He should be finishing the job he has barely started of fixing the financial sector problems that got us into this economic disaster in the first place, and not spending his time promoting ill advised health care legislation.

Guess Mr. Dodd couldn;t conjure up a coherent response to Senator Caligiuri's challenge. 

Of course, there's been no progress on reforming the financial regulatory system all year, because Dodd was out pretending to be Teddy Kennedy. Now Dodd returns to a reform effort in tatters. , as nothing has been done in months to advance the complex issue.

Hey, it's not like we didn;t have a financial meltdown recently or anything that would warrant making this a priority.

Well, let's give Dodd credit.  He's staying on the same sinking ship he's already captained. After all, Captain Smith is treated more kindly by history than Bruce Ismay.   

The passing of Teddy Kennedy has given Chris Dodd a dicey dilemma to deal with.

For months Dodd has been the de facto head of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, sheparding a partisan public option health care bill through the committee in Kennedy's absence.

All the while, Dodd was still supposedly chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, which now, as the bailout era has reached a pause, reverted to the same lassitude it displayed in 2007 and 2008 as the financial system proceeded to meltdown.

Nevermind that financial market reform was supposedly a high point of President Obama's agenda, and that Secretary Geithner recently took to reaming out other bureaucrats for their lack of support of the administration's effort.  The bill has yet to even be scheduled for committee mark-up.

Now, Dodd can do what Washington politicians suggest would be a good career move--abandon the albatross of his failed chairmanship of the Banking Committee and take over for Teddy on the Health Committee--with the avowed goal of passing Obamacare as a trillion dollar tribute to the late Senator.

Amazingly, the clueless Dodd thinks the entire protest movement over socialized medicine will fade away in the good vibes generated by the Teddy funeral.

Yep, this guy really is so haughty he thinks we will meekly agree to whatever the power brokers on Capitol Hill think is really, really good for us.

Some Connecticut Republicans have other ideas. Like Senate candidate Sam Caligiuri      

Sure the lefties are upset but someone has to call out Chris Dodd on this!

Caligiuri is outraged that Dodd would leave the Banking Committee without cleaning up the monumental mess that the chairman has made of the financial economy.

Republican U.S. Senate Candidate Sam Caligiuri today started an online petition calling on Senate Majority Leader Reid to force Senator Dodd to do his job at the Banking Committee rather than leaving it to take over the chairmanship of the Health Committee left vacant by the death of Senator Kennedy. Caligiuri issued the following statement:“At the end of my tenure on this committee," Senator Dodd said in early 2007 of his role at Banking, "I want it to be said that the safety and soundness of our financial institutions was not weakened on my watch.” (See the full article here) As of today, it must be said that Chris Dodd failed and the safety and soundness of our financial institutions has been badly weakened over the past two-and-a-half years since Senator Dodd’s comment. Now, at a time when our economy and our financial institutions need oversight and attention to ensure our country is on the road to financial recovery, Chris Dodd has conveniently taken on a new and massive undertaking with the current health care debate – yet he still is grossly negligent in the job he is supposed to do – protecting our financial institutions. It is time for him to actually complete the task assigned to him at the Banking Committee, not to try and pass it along to another senator and sweep his failings under the rug. 

If you think Chris Dodd should clean up the mess he already made, before making a new mess out of the nation's health care system, you can sign this petition here.

We'll how eager Harry Reid is to anger Connecticut voters even further by letting Dodd pull a switch akin to that of Bob Torricelli. 

Chris Dodd thinks he can move on to something more pleasant and leave the nation's damaged economy to someone else to fix. He abandoned the Banking Committee before to run for President. Now he wants to abandon it again so he can pretend to be Teddy Kennedy and improve his fading chances for re-election.

Connecticut voters are a little smarter than that, Chris.  You may try and quit us; but we're ready to fire you.  

Oh yes, for all those who think Connecticut politics is a world of preppie decorum, we have received word that World Wrestling Chairwoman Linda McMahon is thinking about jumping into the race against Chris Dodd.

McMahon recently was appointed by Governor Rell to the State Board of Education and was confirmed; evidently convincing the Democratic controlled legislature her expertise in running a major local corporation overcame some of the less, hmmm, restrained, elements of their presentations.

That said, Democrats are already posting on local blogs the WWE has both received major tax credit assistance from the state at the same time they've laid off employees. Yep, times are tough, but they'll throw as many chairs at her as her employees have thrown at each other.

Besides, while she apparently spoke at the 2000 GOP convention she is also reputed to be a significant contributor to Rahm Emanuel's committee, and that's a pretty big problem in my eyes,

I'm left asking one question: Why?  The race already has a popular former Congressman, an up and coming legislator, and a wealthy former ambassador. It's not like there's a huge void that we need to fill right about now?

Indeed, where we may need a candidate is against freshman Democrat Jim Himes. At this writing, he's going to face someone with far less financial firepower than McMahon. But I suppose they all want to start at the top....sigh...  

Chris Dodd's effort to commandeer the health care system so as to provide a trillion dollar memorial to his BFF Teddy Kennedy hit a little speed bump this afternoon.

Remember Robert Feinberg, Angelo Mozilo's go to guy at Countrywide Mortgage about greasing VIP's

Well, his testimony before the Senate Ethics Committee and a House Committee  got leaked to the AP. And it's not pretty.

Countrywide VIPs, Feinberg told the committees, received discounts on rates, fees and points. Dodd received a break when Countrywide counted both his Connecticut and Washington homes as primary owner-occupied residences -- a fiction, according to Feinberg. Conrad received a type of commercial loan that he was told Countrywide didn't offer.

Hmm, Dodd got the owner-occupied mortgage rates on BOTH the Connecticut house and the DC house even though obviously only one could be a "principal residence".  And who said they didn;t get a "sweetheart deal"? 

Maybe that was the "enhanced customer service" Dodd talks about.  And maybe it's time Dodd post the actual loan documents and loan applications on the Internet. But then again, if both applications said they were for a "principal residence" they the good Senator better hope he didn't mail or fax them.

Dodd spent a million dollars to firm up his party base support and lose ground in the ballot tests in recent weeks. And that was with Countrywide and the Irish Cottage being pretty much in remission.  Now , once again "it's all further proof that Sen. Dodd's candidacy remains toxic."

I haven't seen Rob Simmons's reaction , but Sam Caligiuri was all over this

  Connecticut cannot afford to once again endure the scandals of a leader who has been corrupted by the trappings of power.  If this testimony is true, Senator Dodd's resignation is in order, because he not only did wrong, he covered it up.   

The Republican State Chairman is all over thist too, pointing out this little gem.

Asked by a House investigator if Conrad, the North Dakota senator, "was aware that he was getting preferential treatment?" Feinberg answered: "Yes, he was aware." Referring to Dodd, the investigator asked: "And do you know if during the course of your communications" with the senator or his wife "that you ever had an opportunity to share with them if they were getting special VIP treatment?" "Yes, yes," Feinberg replied.

 Grab the popcorn! One blogger tonight suggested "Nutmeg State Democrats are likely to get even more nervous about Mr. Dodd’s chances in November 2010"

I'm sure think this is a day Chris Dodd looks forward to ending

Right around sunrise, Quinnipiac released their latest poll results. In recent weeks, Dodd and his special interest allies have spent probably over $1 million on a TV blitz promoting Dodd's credit card and health care bills. So I expected Dodd to be temporarily given some political health.

Nope. Since the last poll Rob Simmons actually increased his lead over Dodd.  

Simmons now leads by 9 points

And each of the other Republicans is in a dead heat with Dodd.

True , Dodd's job approval improved from an utterly disgusting level to a merely dismal 40%; but it seems the only people swayed were partisan Democrats; he's now crushing the unknown Merrick Alpert in a putative primary. But by a 2/1 margin, CT voters simply don't find Dodd trustworthy. And that's hard to spin your way out of.

I have to think that this reverberated on the Hill. Dodd had assumed the mantle of trying to write the public option health care bill when his BFF Ted Kennedy fell ill, and actually got a bill out of his committee on a party line vote. And then his home state---dark blue as they come---gives him a raspberry for all his efforts (playing attention, Orrin, you dummy!)  

 So, by day's end, the Democratic leadership on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue was in disarray; shelving the health care issue until the fall. As Michael Barone points out. "Thursday have been bad days for the Democrats’ health care efforts this month....It looks like July 23 is another bad Thursday for the Dems".

You know, it's just a bit after 8pm. There's still time for something else bad to happen to Chris Dodd before he deals with Frriday.