Sanford

Newt, Steele… Sadly Out Of Touch With Mainstream Conservatives.

Newt Gingrich, who had staunchly defended  Dede Scozzafava’s bid for Representative of New York’s 23rd District, seems to be unaware of  the reality which has been manifesting itself all over the country with regards to the leadership of the the Republican party, which is this: THERE ISN’T ANY. We thought we sent that message loud and clear during the 2008 Presidential race which brought the most destructive Presidency in American history to Washington. We had been jacked around time after time by the same backroom deal makers that had been bringing us big government, big spending Republican ‘progressives’ since after Ronald Reagan departed the scene. The hand writing was pretty clearly on the wall for any who had eyes to see. The cries of disgust were readily apparent for any who had ears to hear. Apparently, most of the party leadership didn’t get the message…the ones who were behind the sleazy attacks on Sarah Palin for instance. She is a dynamic leader-in-waiting who can generate more excitement in one appearance than the entire leadership of the Republican party. Yet we still allow these people to attempt to craft their backroom deals with blinders and earmuffs firmly in place. I say attempt ’cause it ain’t workin’ so good any more. The whole concept of the Rockefeller wing of the party is as dead as two week old mackerel and smells about the same. There are severe doubts as to whether Michael Steele has the STEEL to pull the party together. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner should just bow out and get the hell out of the way of someone who CAN lead and isn’t afraid of an old fashioned street brawl…Mike Pence,  J.D. Hayworth, J.C. Watts and Mark Sanford are some who appear not to be infected with ‘Beltway Fever’ At least to this point they remember who (US) and what ( THE  CONSTITUTION ) they serve. Joe Wilson is another…there are others. We need  people with the courage to call Obama, Pelosi, Reid and their ilk LIARS…for liars they surely are. Dishonest and evil as well. The survival of America as we know it depends on it. We owe it to our children and their children. In a glaring example of just how far out of sync with the mood of the Conservative electorate in this country Michael Steele and folks like Newt Gingrich are, Steele issued a statement lauding Scozzafava for ‘taking one for the team’. All the while, Scozzafava was urging voters to support the Democrat Bill Owens. This is another typical RNC DUHH moment. There are rumors that Newt intends to run for President in 2012. I hope not. As brilliant as his Contract for America was, times have bypassed him and all like him. His sadly mistaken support of Dede Scozzafava proved that. It will be the Conservative movement which will carry the Republican banner forward in 2010 and on to defeat Barack Hussein Obama in 2012. “No pale pastels but BOLD COLORS”.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2009

 

Sanford to Hang Mostly by Moral Majority's Rope

Remember Jimmy Swaggart? He was the TV preacher who wept before America after a tryst with a prostitute. "I have sinned against you, my Lord,” choked Swaggart through tears. “I would ask that your precious blood would wash and cleanse every stain until it is in the seas of God's forgiveness." The fall of televangelism in many ways foreshadowed the decline of the so-called moral majority. The Right is now reaping what it sowed. By making social conservatism central to its platform, it left no room in the GOP for sinners. 

Now we have the Sanford affair. Many on the Right had pinned their hopes on the SC governor. He’s a solid, smart fiscal conservative and liberty lover. Yet his political career will very probably dissolve. Why? Not because what he did was unforgivable. Because back in the 1980s and 90s, the Right set itself up to make hypocrites out of human beings—if but by association with Jerry Falwell under the “Big Tent”. That's why I agree with Patrick Ruffini here.

As I have argued elsewhere, it is time to purge the Right’s politics of social conservatism. That doesn't mean anyone should give up his or her values. It means personal values should be left entirely to the private sphere. The Right should make social toleration and pluralism its new plank. Indeed, there is plenty of contrast between real pluralism and the groupist multiculturalism most of the far left embraces. And you can still have your Bible, virtues and righteousness in the free market of values—i.e. at home and at church.

Of course, there are egregious moral acts the discovery of which no politician – Democrat or Republican – should survive. Breaking a solemn contract with a spouse may very well be one of them. But legal bedroom behavior between consenting adults ain’t one of them. And public moralizing has definitely become a political liability for Republicans. The Right has set up the conditions such that no one in their party can ever have a peccadillo. They have driven their sinful behavior into a black market of their own creation. In the age of transparency, however, your trysts and broken taboos will be sniffed out quickly. And it’s not just for politically pragmatic reasons that the Right should give up on public moralizing a la Falwell. It’s also that it’s none of the government’s business what people do in their bedrooms, so it doesn't belong in ANY platform. 

The Power Veeps

 

With the Republican nomination settled on John McCain and the Democratic nomination about settled for Barack Obama, political coverage is slowly pivoting to the picks of the Vice-Presidential candidates.
 
Vice-Presidential nominees are overblown as their impact is limited. Some of the biggest mistakes in Veep-picking have come when candidates have over-reached. Few Veeps can take a state you’ll get shellacked in and turn it into a win. Expectations of Michael Dukakis carrying Texas with Senator Lloyd Bentsen on the ticket in 1988 were absurd, ditto John Kerry’s hopes of carrying North Carolina, Senator John Edwards’ home state, in 2008.
Veep picks help you at the margins, with people who are ambiguous towards your ticket, or they turn some people who would merely vote for you into activists by energizing the base, or a Veep can make up for some deficiency in your ticket. Some Vice-Presidents don’t really do much for the ticket (Dan Quayle ’88, Geraldine Ferraro ’84, Sargent Shriver ’72.) but neither Obama or McCain can afford one of those.
 
McCain
 
Most of the McCain’s potential veeps really bring nothing to the ticket. Governors Bobby Jindal and Mark Sanford don’t add a whole lot to the ticket. They’ll assure a small cadre of fiscal conservatives cast a vote for McCain. That’ll be about it. It’s doubtful they’ll even be able to negate the limited effects of Bob Barr. Rob Portman brings nada to the ticket other than perhaps an enhanced standing in Portman’s already Republican Congressional district in Ohio.
 
Mitt Romney as VP could make Michigan competitive and without Michigan, Obama probably doesn’t win the presidency. On the other hand, he’s not trusted by many conservatives. His oily image on board the “straight talk express” wouldn’t be great for McCain’s image.
 
Governor Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) presents an intriguing choice. Palin could help McCain with women disenchanted with Hillary Clinton not being the Democratic nominee. Palin is also pro-life and not just when its convenient, she recently gave birth to a baby with downs syndrome, and chose life over abortion. Palin’s real life living out of her convictions is something that would be respected.
Palin is also an Evangelical Christian who is more comfortable talking about her faith. She’s a solid record on government reform, heading up efforts to clean up Alaska’s GOP. On the negative side, Palin’s experience is limited and, like Jindal, she’s not well-known. Her rise in a little more than 2 years from former Mayor of Wasila, Alaska to a heartbeat from the Presidency may be a tad much for some people.
 
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee faces well-known negatives: many establishment conservatives don’t like him and have issues with his policies in Arkansas. However, what Huckabee brings to the ticket is organization.
 
Huckabee would bring several thousand volunteers to a campaign that lacks organization, as well as potentially activate a base of voters that can take or leave that whole voting thing. McCain is going to be running behind in money and professional organization. Who can help him counter that? How about a guy who won eight primary states on $16 million?
 
Huckabee has been caricaturized as a Southern candidate, but is more of a heartland candidate. McCain/Huckabee could challenge Obama in Iowa, hold the bellwether state of Missouri, and also increase turnout in key areas of Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. However, McCain’s recent attack on two reverends who endorsed him may have limited his ability to turn out religious conservatives regardless of his running mate.
 
Moderate choices, such as Tom Ridge, don’t really add to the nomination and are going to deepen dissatisfaction from the base without really adding anything.
 
 
Obama
 
Barack Obama has two deficiencies: a lack of foreign policy experience and a lack of executive experience. General historic trends would suggest a Democratic win in 2008, with an unpopular war and a down economy. What Obama must do is convince voters in Red States that it’s “okay” to support a Democrat.
 
Obama has four options that do this. None of them are Hillary Clinton. While Mrs. Clinton would strengthen Obama with some Democrats, I remain dubious that she’ll attract people who wouldn’t vote for Obama to the ticket. Many of these diehards voted for her as an anti-Obama vote, not a pro-Clinton vote. Her personal negatives in polls are somewhat lower than Osama bin Laden’s and the that’s nicest thing I can think of to say about her rating.
From New Mexico, Governor Bill Richardson (D) could be a winner for the Obama camp, as he brings foreign policy experience (former UN Ambassador), and executive experience (Governor and Secretary of Energy), along with a 14-year congressional career. Richardson would, at the very least, guarantee Obama the swing states of New Mexico and Colorado. He’d also help Obama with Hispanics, who McCain is trying to make a play for and who Clinton tried to turn into a wedge constituency.
 
Beyond Richardson, Obama could pick one of three Virginians.
 
The strongest of the three would be Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican and Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan. Webb’s national security bonafides would help the inexperienced Obama in the same way Dick Cheney helped George W. Bush.
 
After that, former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA), who many thought of as a presidential candidate, would re-assure moderates and provide executive experience to the ticket. The negative is Warner would have to leave the Virginia Senate race he’s a shoo in for and that would allow Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) to hold the seat for Republicans, but if it’s necessary for a Democratic win, I think Virginian Democrats would trade a Senate seat for the presidency.
 
Finally, Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) is the least of the three Virginians, without the stature of Warner, but he could deliver Virginia.
 
An Obama victory in Virginia would be huge. No Democrat has won it since LBJ in 1964. Virginia has 13 electoral votes and any of these three could help with the nearby state of Ohio as well as bolster Obama’s hopes in North Carolina.
 
Another possibility for VP would be Senator Robert Casey (R-PA). Casey would help with white working class Democrats in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But as one of the few Senators with less experience than Obama, it’s really an open question as to whether Casey would help across America.
 
Additionally, if Obama decides luring disenchanted Republicans is key, he could also ask Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) who would have similar benefits to Webb, but might tick off more members of his party base.
 
Casey, Hagel, and Kaine would represent a problem for many feminists who backed Clinton as all three are pro-life, but Obama would comfort moderate pro-lifers with a gesture meant to illustrate that he’s serious about his respect for those who disagree with him. A Casey nomination would be particularly poignant as Bill Clinton’s decision to bar Casey from the 1992 Democratic Convention began a steady exodus of pro-life Democrats from the party. However, the risk may not make it worth it.
 
The strongest overall candidates are Richardson, Webb, and Warner in that order. If Obama chooses any of those three, I’ll be 100% sure he’ll be the next president. 

 

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