Saxby Chambliss

Podcast Show Notes

Last night, in a special join edition with David Oatney of Oatney on the Air, we were joined by Hatton Humphrey and discussed:

• Saxby Chambliss’ landslide victory in Georiga.

• Joseph Cao’s win in Louisiana

• Ken Blackwell joining the RNC Chairman’s race.

• The Big 3 Bailout

• Newspaper Failures and shrinkages.

• Is it time to end the war on drugs?

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When Barack Obama was on the ballot in Georgia, Jim Martin was within 3% of Saxby Chambliss. Without Obama, Martin gets blown out by 20%. Saxby's message was that a vote for Martin was a vote for a blank check for Democrats.

Today Georgians rejected a blank check for the Democratic Party by far more than typical GOP margins in a red state.

This tells us that Americans picked Obama and change, but not a broad Democratic or left-leaning agenda for America. Open Left's David Sirota understood this last week when he said:

So now, because of this, you have a large majority (though not the whole) of his 10 million-person email list overarchingly organized around the celebrity Barack Obama - not really around issues (though certainly people can like Obama and support specific issues).

So when the Democrats try to push through outrageous things like card-check, significant tax-increases, etc., all we need to do is point to tonight. When progressives were on the ballot, not just a celebrity, the progressives were roundly rejected.

The latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll out of Georgia has Saxby Chambliss up by 7 points -- 53-46 (that's not a lot of undecideds). And reading FiveThirtyEight, it's not hard to see why: 

Whatever turns out to be the case, at the close of early voting Wednesday, according to the Secretary of State's office 345,564 had voted, and 22.5% of those votes were African-American, an ominous dropoff from the 34.5% of black early voters for the general election.

If Saxby does manage to significantly expand from his 3 point lead on November 4th, we can start writing the story of how the African American and youth turnout for Obama really mattered.

A massive turnout that brings the marginally interested into the process is usually a holy grail for Democrats but one that they haven't been able to tap into until this year. For perspective's sake, just consider that from 2000 to 2004, the electorate expanded by 16% -- and the country voted 3 points more Republican.

As I wrote in The Straight-Ticket Youth Vote, the identity politics vote based on Obama's personal characteristics -- young and African-American -- may have counted for as much as 6 points of his victory margin -- about 4 points in the increased youth margin and turnout, and about 2 points in increased African American turnout and margin. Not only did this benefit Obama but young people also voted straight ticket for Democratic Congressional candidates. The youth vote on November 4th was about as Democratic as the Latino vote -- and twice as large.

Those advantages are not going to be at play for Jim Martin, a boring white guy.

It's in Georgia that we may begin to see indications of a natural tightening of the House generic ballot for 2010. And it's not so much the African American vote -- though that's a big deal in Georgia -- as it is the youth vote.

If 18-29 voters are back to 12% of the electorate (where they were in '06) from 17%, that's an automatic 2 points extra for GOP Congressional candidates even if the margin stays at inflated 2008 rates. And without Obama at the top of the ticket, it's hard to see how it could. So Obama reshaped the electorate, but probably did it just for one day and one candidate. And if Jim Martin doesn't exceed expectations with Obama's organizers down in Georgia also suggests that the candidate matters more than the tactics in driving GOTV.

Georgia will be the first test of whether Obama's massive turnout surge proves realigning for other Democrats. Pre-runoff polls, though, suggest that it won't be.

Eric Kohn writes:

Right now, if the Democrats proposed a bill to burn down the Capitol, the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument, the Republicans would compromise and agree to phase it in over 5 years. Is there any doubt this would have been the paradigm under John McCain? 

If Republicans ever hope to win back the libertarian bloc and reengage activism among fiscal conservatives, they need to take a look at some some potential leaders and possible presidential candidates they've been ignoring for the most part.

At this moment, Mike Huckabee is suggesting the purging of believers in small government from the party, calling libertarianism "a heartless, callous, soulless type of economic conservatism."

If some in the party get their way, Huckabee won't have to worry about internal competition from what he calls the  “real threat” to the Republican Party: “libertarianism masked as conservatism.”

Then there is Georgia's Saxby Chambliss, who is in the midst of a major fight to retain his Senate seat.  Things might have gone fairly well for Saxby if he hadn't voted for the bailout, opening the door for his opponent to be able to make this statement:

It's classic Saxby Economics - $700 billion for Wall Street, while Georgia families get stuck with the bill. That's just wrong.

While Saxby was busy justifying his bailout vote to unsympathetic Georgia voters, Libertarian Allen Buckley was placing signs around the state billing himself as the only fiscal conservative in the race.  If the DSCC hadn't made the mistake of going after Saxby on the Fair Tax in the heart of Neal Boortz territory, it's possible that Martin (who distanced himself from the ads) might have won.  As it turned out, the Libertarian forced a runoff which now has significant national implications.

Now comes the really laughable part.  Up until Election Day, media and local conversation (I was working in Atlanta until a week after the general election) about the race was centered around fiscal issues -- and primarily about the bailout.  So who does Saxby bring into the state to help him campaign? "Tax Hike Mike" Huckabee and bailout enthusiast John McCain.

It's not just the people, either. One also needs to look at the organizations closely affiliated with the GOP.  As one example, the NRA just joined in the flap over the Obama transition team asking potential appointees about their gun ownership and registration habits.  This is the same NRA who turned their back on one of their own board members to endorse someone with an abysmal Second Amendment record and an adversarial relationship to the NRA. How are people to trust an organization like this when they just chose politics over principle with respect to McCain?

If the GOP ever hopes to regain the trust of conservatives and the votes of libertarians, they need to be looking at people like Mark Sanford, Jeff Flake or even Gary Johnson -- as opposed to Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Saxby Chambliss.

As grassroots,  online conservatives with a voice, we've got to do all we can to keep the GA Senate seat as a firewall to prevent a run-away liberal, Democrat Congress and Obama Presidency. 

I'm a graduate student in the Midwest, but I've decided to give $5 a week to do my small part.  I'm also making calls to friends I've got that live in GA.  We've all got to pitch in to do our part to keep this seat.  Make calls, donate money, give your time.  This is our chance to restart and rebuild by electing Saxby.

Saxby.org to donate and volunteer to elect Saxby Chambliss and keep this firewall seat.

As is readily apparent, many so-called "conservative" pundits like George Will http://www.thenextright.com/ironman/george-will-empty-suit-behind-the-bow-tie. Peggy Noonan http://www.peggynoonan.com/article.php?article=438 and David Brooks http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_10830202 decided that rather than offer even tepid support to the McCain-Palin ticket, it would be way more fun to fire off a weekly columm attacking them and their campaign as incompetent.

Now John McCain and Sarah Palin are a big boy and a big girl and probably couldn;t give a rat's tukkus that some writers dissed them. And they can look to the political environment and their own campaigns to explain a 6 point loss.  Friendly fire didn't cost them that many votes.

But the elite pundits ought now to consider that while fragging Mac and Sarah for their alleged deficiencies, they inflicted a lot of collateral damage on the rest of the Republican party. Let's assume that some moderately substantial number of right-of-center voters were sufficiently moved by the media blitz of disgrunted conservative writers to stay home.

Well, George, Peggy & David, Senator Merkley sends his regards  http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2008/11/06/2008-11-06_oregon_race_for_us_senate_called_for_jef.html

Congressman Kratovil also says thanks http://wjz.com/local/andy.harris.frank.2.861518.html

Congressman Perriero also will probably say thanks too  http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-11-07-0207.html

and we're still waiting to see if Senator Begich http://www.aksuperstation.com/news/local/34276439.html, Senator Franken http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/11/10/Franken_within_204_votes_of_Coleman/UPI-19251226343255/, Senator Martin  http://www.ajc.com/services/content/metro/stories/2008/11/11/senate_chambliss_martin.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=13 or Congressman Brown http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/1383995.html will also be sending warm regards

You see, when you decide to go shiv the top of the ticket, the entire party suffers when voters decide not to bother to vote.  And did it go unnoticed that Republican turnout was down this year.  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/11/07/republican_turnout_declined.html

Notice how few liberals before the election---even those who were die-hard Hillary people---publicly dissed Barack Obama. That's because. hey ---they actually think winning elections sorta matters.

And it matters a whole lot for people out there in Senate and Congressional races downballot. I'm not sure what any of these people (save Ted Stevens) did to deserve this, but as I pointed out, fragmentation grenades are rather inexact weapons.

At some point a bill will pass that will be horrendously repugnant to any thoughtful Republican. It will pass by one vote---because one of these people wasn't there to stop it.

I look forward to the very erudite apology from the salon set "conservatives" then--hardly--they'll still be blaming the Republican rank and file as if we are the problem.