Tom Foley

The decision of Governor Jodi Rell not to seek re-election and the response of the donor class to the millions already spent by senate candidate Linda McMahon has created a mad scramble in Connecticut Republican politics.

The first shot was fired by state Republican chairman Chris Healy in urging senate candidate Sam Caligiuri to change races from challenging Chris Dodd to Congressman Chris Murphy.  After some time to consider the summons, Caligiuri announced he was switching gears and taking on Murphy.

It's unfortunate that a proven, electable conservative failed to gain traction in Connecticut, but the entry of McMahon and her willingness to spend a virtually inexhaustable amount of cash appears to have closed checkbooks across CT.  Contributors simply thought a House race was a better investment of their resources than trying to outpace both frontrunner Rob Simmons and a human ATM; like it or not, the political marketplace has spoken.    

Another, better funded Republican Senate candidate appears to have gotten the same message,  Former Ambassador Tom Foley announced he was likely to quit the Senate race and throw his hat into the open Governor's race; where as of yet the putative candidate was Lt. Governor Mike Fedele.  Foley actually had a decent lead on Dodd in the last poll, and it may be harder for the Democrats to attack Foley's role in the Iraqi reconstruction effort in a state level race than a Senate race. 

It has been argued--and denied-- that all these maneuvers are being orchestrated by State party chairman Chris Healy, who insists he is not "moving chess pieces across the board".  Unfortunately for the Democrats, we have the political version of the "Deep Blue" program at work.

In the space of a couple of weeks, CT Republicans may have clarified their previously chaotic U.S. Senate primary situation--leaving a de facto two person race;  drawn a candidate capable of matching Ned Lamont dollar for dollar into the Governor's race; and turned up the heat early on Chris Murphy in the state's most conservative House district.

This is probably in sum good news for Rob Simmons; he probably faced greater risk of losing a multicandidate primary where many old-style Republicans would vote for Foley or Caligiuri; especially given Rob's moderate past.  The history of upstarts ousting frontrunners in New England GOP primaries isn't promising for McMahon, who would be well advised to shut down third party speculation by using her own lips; instead of hiding behind flacks.  One impediment to such a bid would be CT state law now requires would be aspirant to be in the process of filing third party papers in advance of a primary, (the Democrats were a bit chagrined by Joe Lieberman in 2006)

But while there may be method to the CT GOP's madness, the Democrats are facing simple chaos theory.  Ralph Nader may enter the Senate race against Dodd as a third party candidate.  No wonder the CT Democrats are left flailing away against the Q Poll....

maybe they just "can't handle the truth"

Chris Dodd has a polling profile reminscent of NJ Governor Jon Corzine. He's behind, he's been behind for a long while, and the poll internals indicate he's likely to stay behind.

Given that the election is less than a year away, how could Dodd eke out a victory?

Have an opponent with high negatives. Thankfully for him, one is already in the race.

Five Republicans are in the race now. Former Congressman Rob Simmons has yet to run TV ads, but has residual name ID in central and eastern CT from his days in Congress. He is leading  Dodd by 11 points.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has run TV ads . He is leading Dodd by 7 points.

The other three candidates--Linda McMahon, Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff--all are in effective dead heats with Dodd in the 43-41% range.  So they are equal, right?

No. McMahon is the weakest of the lot.  Neither Caligiuri or Schiff have spent dime one on TV ads, while McMahon has blanketed the state--even running ads on NYC TV. Yet she fares no better than the more frugal candidates in the race.

The secret here is while McMahon is buying name recognition, much of it is already negative. 

According to Quinnipiac Simmons's image is now 40% favorable , 10% unfavorable. His rating with unaffiliated voters is 42% favorable- 7% unfavorable.

Linda McMahon did not make such a good first impression.    She rates at 20% favorable to 13% unfavorable.  14% of unaffiliates and 15% of men already have a negative impression of the wrestling mogul.

Amazingly, more people in CT dislike Linda McMahon after a few weeks in elective politics than dislike Rob Simmons after nearly 20 years at  the trade.

The rule of thumb is that a challenger's early numbers usually have to run 2 to 1 favorable to have a shot at an incumbent. McMahon's slick campaign ain't getting the split she needs. And Lord knows what's going to happen if and when Dodd unloads some negatives on her. Sure she'll have plenty of cash to respond, but methinks Chris Dodd will enjoy the mudfest. It's not like his numbers can go much further down.

Now one would think Dodd's dream---a rookie opponent with high and rising negatives--couldn't come true. But it might due to the quirks of the CT GOP and our geography.

Rob Simmons is very well known in eastern CT, which does not have many registered Republicans.  But he is not well known in heavily Republican Fairfield County, which is served by NYC TV.    McMahon's been on those stations; Simmons never has.

I suspect the reason the ballot test for the CT primary is now 28% Simmons - 17% McMahon is heavily due to Simmons having low visibility in the southwestern part of CT.

So all of McMahon's millions got her the same ballot test as the candidates not spending money, and the highest negative ratings in the Republican field.

I suggest CT Republicans take a long hard look at these poll internals. When a candidate makes a tepid first impression, it usually doesn;t improve by just pouring resources into the same suboptimal message.

And if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of the weakened Dodd now after spending millions, why would she be when her negatives inevitably rise?

Let's not do Chris Dodd any favors, please

The Latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and Dodd is still down.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

He loses as well to Linda McMahon and Tom Foley, and is in a dead heat with Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff

Why?  Because CT voters don;t find him trustworthy and don't think he cares about their issues.They also don;t think he's doing a a good job on the economy.

Support for the Democratic health plan, although higher here than most places, is slipping.

The good news for Dodd, if any, is that Simmons does face a primary challenge of significance from the "Wild RINO". But in a matter of weeks she's raised her negative rating almost as fast as her positive rating. Oops!

Chris Christie had a primary too, Didn;t help Corzine. And the pattern of Q polls on Dodd is looking more and more like the pattern of polls on Corzine before his failed re-election bid.

In the wake of NY 23  all eyes pointed to the Club for Growth to ascertain where they would jump in next to promote fiscally conservative candidates. And in light of this article, one wonders if they have CT in mind as one of their next venues  

Beyond Florida, other establishment Republicans may be looking over their shoulders. Chocola, a former House Republican from Indiana, noted that he served with Rep. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.), both running for the Senate.

“They’re both good guys, but they don’t fit the bill as Club for Growth candidates,” he said.

Before his organization decides to jump in, however, he said the group has to see how those races develop, and whether a clear “Club” alternative surfaces.

“The best Kirk and Simmons can expect is that we leave them alone,” Chocola said.

So, Simmons, who has had to revise prior positions on cap and trade; as well as card check, and recently made a rather conciliatory statement on the public option, might find himself not just  overlooked by the fiscal conservative masterminds, but even challenged by a serious committment of time and resources by the Club.  The Club may not always succeed, but their targets are always aware the Club tried.

So, who would the Club for Growth think would be a viable opponent for Chris Dodd?  Who is fiscally conservative enough to warrant their support, a candidate capable of actually winning against Dodd in the general election, and a candidate who actually could use their support?.

There are four other Republicans in the U.S. Senate race besides Simmons. I believe we can write off two names.  Linda McMahon is , of course, "the Wild RINO". Besides, why should the Club send some of its limited money to CT to subsidize a self-funding billionaire? 

Peter Schiff, the former Ron Paul advisor, is certainlly in favor of limited government, but his agenda is so doctrinaire as to make him a very poor investment of Club resources. Perhaps Idaho is ready for 180 proof libertarianism; CT, not so much. Besides, his campaign to date has just done moneybombs and has no traction on the ground.

That leaves Tom Foley and Sam Caligiuri. Foley has been running cute ads with babies, but he's never run a political campaign and whether he can win an election is an open question.

There's one candidate running in CT right now who a) has a proven record of fiscal conservatism and b) has a proven record of winning elections. That's Sam Caligiuri.

2010 might be exactly the year to run a state senator who stood up against a Governor in his own party to vote "no" on an ultimately disasterous state budget. And that made Sam Caligiuri the only CT State Senator to oppose a budget that left the state in a huge deficit. 

It might also be a good year to run a candidate who won a formerly Democratic legislative seat in the Democratic tsunami of 2006.      

And given the issue environment, it might make sense to run a candidate praised for his ability on the stump and described as a "proud Reagan Republican"

I have no idea what the decision making processes at the Club are. Certaintly Rob Simmons is a far cry from the elasticity of Charlie Crist--Simmons is a good guy and generally helpful to other Republicans.  But the Club is looking for alternative to the "Certified Pre-Owned Candidates".

Sam Caligiuri is the sort of guy they would be looking at in Connecticut. And, they did sound like they wanted to play, now didn't they?

As of this evening, a third name has entered the Republican race to challenge Senator Chris Dodd in 2010.

Joining Rob Simmons and Sam Caligiuri in competing for the hearts and minds of Connecticut voters is former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley.

I admit I've never met Tom Foley, as I've rarely crossed paths with Greenwich magnates. He is probably a wonderful guy. I might agree with him on all the big issues. But I have my doubts as to the political message he trying to sell.

I agree that after 35 years of Chris Dodd in Washington Connecticut is really ready for someone who is a "a Washington outsider".

I just wonder how many CT voters are going to think someone who was a top political appointee of the last President qualifies for this status. And perhaps working for the provisional government in Iraq won't be too popular in a blue state, no matter how successful one was at the job.

And don;t think Dodd isn;t going to try and save his sorry derrierre by playing class warfare, however hypocritical it may seem. It will be an easier task facing an opponent with Philips Andover, Harvard undergrad, and Harvard business school on the resume.  Or who was a George W. Bush "Pioneer" in a state where even Republicans were a bit cool towards Dubya. 

Perhaps in some other year or some other state I could see this working, however, in the here and now Ambassador Foley seems like yet another Certified Pre-Owned Candidate.   

I think Michael Barone has it right. Republicans need to run against the present establishment, not pretend we are still running it.  Will we need another election debacle to learn the folly of doing the opposite?