As you know, I really think McCain needs to look outside the box for a Vice Presidential pick. I had earlier suggested someone whom I think could be a "game changer" , albeit someone with zero elective experience http://www.thenextright.com/ironman/an-out-box-veep-choice-mac
I still think Team Mac is looking in that direction to an extent, and much of the recent buzz has been about female elected Republicans. I must admit the "Drill Now" agenda makes Sarah Palin a more plausible choice then she started the year.
The problem in the Veepstakes is the election is going to be decided in Ohio and Michigan, and perhaps a handful of other similar states (PA, WI, MO, MN). http://www.thenextright.com/chris-palko/the-big-ten-strategy
Let's look at the alleged "short list" candidates. Tim Pawlenty clearly fits the bill as someone who has a track record of attracting blue collar Midwestern voters, but he is unlikely to flip MN and has no specific appeal in the M/O/P region. I also wonder if some folks might be uneasy making him the "on-deck batter" for '12 or '16?
Mitt Romney might well flip MI, and that is huge. But might he water down the McCain message of not being a traditional Republican? Do Huckabee people tune out seeing Mitt "on deck"?
Mike Huckabee would create serious angst among fi-cons not happy to see him "on-deck". I also firmly believe much of America is tired at this moment of socially conservative southern protestant men. I think Huck makes flipping PA or MI harder, and I'm not sure how much he helps in OH.
Tom Ridge might flip PA, but at the expense of much time and effort spent dealing with frustrated conservatives, which then might make holding other states (VA, MO) tougher.
Now some people have suggested given Ohio's uberimportance that John Kasich or Rob Portman are the answer. Nope. OH has 18 congresspeople and six significant media markets. I doubt few ordinary people outside their home region know these guys. Besides, Kasich has been out of office for eight years and Portman works in the Bush White House, which is not exactly a selling point at the moment.
So, here's the problem. We need someone who can appeal to Rust Belt voters, hopefully by sharing some ethnicity or having a track record on economic issues.
A business background becomes highly useful when the economy is skyrocketing to the top of the opinion charts---and our opponent's record is that of shaking down Chicago businesses to no discernable effect to the local economy.
Someone unlikely to overshadow Romney or Huckabee might be good so they feel like they are not having their future shot impeded. On that point, counterintuituvely an old guy might work best, as it would also reinforce McCain's experience and maturity theme, especially if a newbie like Sebelius or Casey, Jr. is Obama's wingman.
A good candidate would have demonstated an ability to win moderate votes while also glueing up the loose planks on some of McCain's platform (i.e. immigration in particular).
So is there a "dark horse" from outside the M/O/P region who might have some appeal to the voters therein?
Yes, Rhode Island Governor Don Carcieri.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Carcieri
Lets' get the "known known" liabilities out of the way quickly.
a) He's old (65)
b) We are not winning RI or its immediate neighbors
c) He is nationally unknown
Now, the pluses:
a) He will not present an obstacle for younger conservatives in future elections
b) He has a long background in business and finance predating his political career; unlike the other "short list" folks beside Romney
c)He endorsed Romney. Chalk one up for party unity. Plus he's clearly pro-life. No walkout potential here. Nonetheless, he won twice in the nation's most Democratic state, so he has proven ability to get moderate and independent voters.
d) He is vocally pro-enforcement on immigration laws and might be a bridge to the anti-amnesty folks who see TV ads praising hispanic soldiers as proof Mac is still gonna do open borders.
e) We are contending against the most exotic candidate ever for President. Someone who lives in thesame town he was born in (East Greenwich, RI) is a pretty stark constrast.
e) Most importantly, he is an Italian American.. The #3 state in the nation for Italian Americans in PA, OH is #8, and MI is #10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_American#State_totals
Beyond the regional impact, on a hyperlocal basis, the Italian population is heavily centered in the most politically criitical suburban and industrial counties in these states. MI's key swing county, Macomb, is 14% Italian American.
The suburban counties east of Cleveland are heavily Italian, as is the Mahoning Valley.
PA is perhaps the most impressive example, as the politically crucial suburban belt around Philadelphia is between 14% and 19% Italian; and they are the largest single ethnic voting bloc across the western portion of the state. http://www.niaf.org/research/2000_census_1.asp http://ancestrymaps.com/2000Maps/Italian/ManifoldCountyMaps/NationalItalian.htm
(outside the Rust Belt, Italians are a substantial voting bloc in two other swing states: the Palm Beach-Ft. Lauderdale region of FL and the southern tier of NH)
I know the inevitable "Soprano" jokes will occur. Mark my words from someone with an Italian-American sister in law....the best way to ensure a bloc vote is to insult a fellow Italian over the Mafia.
Unlike many other "dark horse" candidates I can identify a tangible demographic upside to Don Carcieri. What's John Thune's upside?.....are ranchers a critical bloc vote in the Cleveland suburbs.?..methinks not.
I hope that Team Mac gives Don Carcieri a long look. I hope Team Obama keeps giving Chris Dodd a long look (even though the state senator from his old home town trashed him last night http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2008/07/edith-prague-says-obama-should.html)... and I hope they do no oppo on this guy so we can get a "clean" launch should we pick him.
