Vice Presidential debate

Peggy Noonan: "She Killed. It was her evening, she was the star."

Post debate thoughts...

• In debates, candidates seem to follow Monty Python's rule for How Not To Be Seen: Don't Stand Up. 
• The Democrat's Economic message: "Somebody, somewhere is rich.  And you're not.  Torches and pitchforks for everybody!"
• Megan McArdle:
  

  Joe Biden launches immediately into complaining that the current mess is all the fault of the Bush administration.  Number one, this is not true.  Number two, is there any more exquisite irony than watching Senator Joe Biden (D-MBNA) complain about financial deregulation?

• Shockingly, the Right is convinced that Sarah Palin won, while the Left is convinced that Joe Biden won.  For the Chatterati to reach any other conclusion, I think one of the candidates would have had to admit, on camera, "you sure kicked my *** up here tonight!".
• Face it, Biden did well.  He was serious, fluent, he had gravitas.  He didn't pull a Biden.  And yet, Biden reinforced the real problem he represents for the Obama campaign: whatever he may be, Senator Biden is not "Change".  In a campaign built around a Change brand, Biden is a jarring reminder of the traditional Democratic establishment.
• Gov. Palin did one thing very well and one thing poorly:
  • GOOD: She didn't make any major mistakes.  In that regard, Palin beat expectations soundly.  She did get some facts wrong, but she didn't have The Gaffe and without that Moment on which all future attention focuses, impressions will largely be shaped by the personalities of the people involved. Fortunately for her, Sarah Palin is likable.  However...
  • BAD: Sarah Palin was speaking, but other people's words were coming out of her mouth. She was clearly trying to cram in as many talking points as possible.  As a result, she talked too fast, she talked too much and she sounded more like a scripted politician than a charismatic reformer.
• Ironic, I think, that Biden was speaking in modest measures, while Palin was speaking in run-on paragraphs.
• Why do people take the cable channel focus groups seriously?  They've become a debate standard for cable channels, but they violate a pretty basic rule: you can't effectively measure people who know they are being measured. 

Growing up, the last thing that any boy ever wanted to have happen is to compete head-to-head against a girl and lose. Despite the number of girls at my school that were exceptional athletes (one of whom was a Division I basketball player at Tulsa University), the taunts of “You got beat by a girl!” would mortify any boy on the playground. Tonight, the taunt is directed at Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.

Folks, we have a race again! It was a four-to-six point race entering tonight, but it’s going to get a little bit tighter before next debate between Arizona Sen. John McCain and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama on Tuesday night. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin took it to Biden and it was not a good night for the Obama-Biden campaign as a result. John McCain’s gamble paid off for tonight.

The girl on the playground that went head-to-head with boy was better than the Biden. Sarah-Barracuda is back and Obama should be concerned about what the fallout of this is when polling comes out on Monday.

Tonight, Joe Biden looked his age and presented himself as a cantankerous, old man. Believe me when I say that some of these people can be funny (go watch a Jeff Dunham video with his doll Walter and you’ll see why). But, Biden looked downright mean.

At this time, Biden hasn’t been called on his gaffe-proneness, but he had a moment during tonight’s debate where it reared its ugly, hair-plugged head. Palin made it a point that the Obama-Biden ticket had done nothing more than chastising the last eight years as opposed to sharing their vision for the next four years. When Biden went back to “old reliable” and attempt to tie President George W. Bush to John McCain, Palin caught him and field-dressed him in front of millions of people watching at home.

Meanwhile, Gov. Sarah Palin looked fresh, energized, and was able to lace her beauty and wit when she was critical of both Barack Obama and Joe Biden. If there is nothing else, it appears to me that the American public wants something fresh. Democrats think that Barack Obama is that embodiment while Republicans see Sarah Palin in the same respect. On this night, Palin looked fresher than Obama and many times fresher than Biden.

However, despite all of the beauty and grace that was exemplified by Governor Palin, the most surreal moment for her came when she asked moderator Gwen Ifill, “Can we talk about Afghanistan for a minute?” This was a moment where Palin wanted to talk foreign policy in a debate against a foreign policy “genius” (really a doofus, but that’s neither here nor there). She then went after Obama on accusing troops of “air raiding villages and killing civilians”. That was the game-changer of the night.

While Biden’s approach plays in the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Washington axis as well as the in-the-tank-for-Obama media, Palin appealed to just about everyone west of the Mississippi (save California), the Midwest, and the South. In using those totals with a calculator (minus Hawaii), McCain-Palin defeats Obama-Biden 341 to 197 in the Electoral College and that doesn’t even include the 21 electoral votes in Biden’s native Pennsylvania.

It was also an amazing and surprising job done by debate moderator Gwen Ifill of the PBS show “Washington Week”. Ifill was able to stay surprisingly unbiased despite the cloud hanging over her head with her Obama book that would be a six-figure windfall for her.

All in all, Palin just made this race tighter and gives McCain an opportunity to narrow the gap further, if not close it, Tuesday night against Barack Obama at the town-hall format debate at Belmont University in Tennessee.

The polls are trending towards Obama, the battleground states are starting to settle in his favor, and a growing number of pundits are predicting an Obama win. John McCain's prospects look grim. While he performed strong in the first debate, he just can not seem convince voters he is their man when it comes to the economy. 

Obama is now ahead in voter trust when it comes to the economy, and with the economy front and center at the moment, and likely for the rest of the campaign, he will likely remain ahead in the polls until election day. Holding the margins he does now, it would be an Obama landslide, with 300+ electoral votes in his column.

All is not lost for McCain though, he still has a crack at this thing. His campaign needs to switch gears though, and do it quickly. First, Sarah Palin must perform exceedingly well at the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday. Sarah Palin is very likeable and viewed favorably by voters, a gaffe free and positive debate will go a long way in reviving McCain's stumbling campaign. 

The second thing he needs to do is own this issue of the bailout. He should immediately begin criticising the taxpayer bailout, and while he is at it, he should also criticize president Bush, as it is his plan. McCain can make this issue work for him, he should emphasize how he supports loans and insurance for the companies, and not a blank check.

McCain also needs to sell this bill differently. He should begin emphasizing that this bill bails out Main Street, not Wall Street. This is because many of those small businesses on Main Street, are barrowing money from those banks on Wall Street so they can make payroll, and fund their day to day operations. 

Only 30% of Americans support the bailout, if McCain can show voters his vision for the bill, and prove to them that action is absolutely necessary, then he can make this bill more popular. He can then take a large chunk of due credit, and restore voter faith in his ability to run the economy. He better hurry though, only 35 days left.

File under "rumors"  at least for now.

In 1988 Joe Biden had two brain aneurysms. Serious to be sure but he's been healthy for twenty years. Good for him. However, there is a rumor that he will withdraw after the VP debate claiming health concerns and be replaced as the nominee by Hillary Clinton. Such a move could be a game-changer though hard to pull off should the rumor become common knowledge in advance of the debate...