Virginia

Evidently the President has identified the one federal program that was not underfunded by his predecessor, George W. Bush.

The defense budget

I'll allow those more steeped in geopolitics to discuss the message this sends to Moscow, Beijing, Teheran and some cave on the Pakistan-Afghan border, but it certaintly doesn't convey the Reaganesque message of "peace through strength"  

The other problem, is much as I am a spending hawk, is we don't have a "peace dividend" to give away like we did in the 1990's. U.S. defense spending is only about 4% of GNP (relatively small compared to its 1980's level).  Moreover, what is spent is now largely devoted to the "boots on the ground" deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

As a result of needing to properly fight these wars, much of the planned technological upgrades to the U.S, military to apply the "revolution in military affairs".  haven't been rolled out quickly and are in dire need of being procured promply to avoid serious functional deterioration of American defense capabilities. (as part of the "peace dividend", a lot of 1990's era weapons like the Seawolf submarine weren;t purchased in bulk or cancelled in toto)

Case in point is the F-22.   This "shovel ready" aircraft already has had it's proposed deployment reduced, although the plane it is replacing, the F-15 has been beset with numerous crashes owing to age; the planes were originally developed in the 1970's.  So, the Air Force's idea to keep these planes in service beyond 2025 seems more based on political correctness than operational requirements. Not replacing the older F-15C's may make the numbers work. And that's it. 

And the Air Force was playing "nickel and dime" under the Bush budgets.   And this isn;t the only weapon system rolled out slowly to put off the cost.  The Virginia class submarines were procured at a rate of one boat a year.  Congressman Joe Courtney  has been vocal in pressing for a two sub a year procurement, which will keep both the EB yard in CT and Newport News in the sub business. This is likely to fall by the wayside, as will be the goal of building 30 new subs. Even at buildout, this fleet will be inadequate to replace the Los Angeles class fleet; maybe we can keep the 688i's running; but  even then we are talking about trying to secure millions of square miles of water with about 50 boats.

And let's not forget the aerial tanker debacle which the Obama team needs to address on their watch; or  the fact the Navy hasn't gotten a proper replacement for their surface warfare ships in the pipeline.. And if the budget gets cut, the U.S.S. Gerald Ford may be the last flattop we launch for a very long time.

So why do I think the hardware gets slashed. Because even if Obama cuts the cost of the Iraq deployment. he;s already proposed to recommit those troops and funds into an augmented effort in Afghanistan.. And cancelling weapons systems is what Democrat presidents like to do even when the world isn't at peace.

Now for the political ramifications. The defense industry is a major component of that long lamented sector known as American manufacturing. It's employees are well paid and highly skilled. And if you don't buy weapons, these workers are forced into lower paid service sector jobs.

Now perhaps the Obama team thinks that angering folks in Georgia, where the F-22 is built doesn't matter.  But the engines for new aircraft are made in Ohio   and Connecticut.. And naval vessels are built in Connecticut,  Maine ,  and Virginia . Hmm, didn;t Obama win these states---and by only a narrow edge in VA and OH?

So, look for this effort to be a major issue in House and Senate races in many states. I could readily see this being unpopular for Democrats in the open Senate seats in Ohio and Missouri (the F-18 is manufactured in St. Louis), as well as a number of House seats which have recently flipped to the Democrats ( OH 1; VA 2 ; CT 2).

The bottom line is that not surprisingly the former community organizer wants to hire more community organizers with tax dollars.     while putting people who make weapons out on the street.  I have to admit this is not a choice I would have thought John McCain would have made.

Yep, elections have consequences. Perhaps the trade unions at the defense plants who endorsed Obama ought to chew on that idea a bit. 

[Promoted - Allen makes the case for McCain to pick Eric Cantor as VP.  I don't have a favorite yet, so it's interesting to see the case made for potential candidates. - Jon Henke]

Frankly, I've grown weary of the ad nauseam repetition of the fact that Obama and the Left are cleaning the clocks of McCain and the Right on the web. Having been reared as a conservative in New York  I am battle tested in fighting against long odds and making progress. Occasionally we actually score big victories by successfully taking on big challenges.

As I've watched McCain make successive wrong political decisions I have concluded that McCain needs help from outside his political brain trust. If McCain is to get traction on the web and on the ground his campaign needs to get the attention and win the support of grassroots Republicans and conservatives.

Probably his last big opportunity to this will be with his selection of  his running mate.

After reading Mark Warner's promise that he'll stay in the Virginia Senate race rather than take a VP nomination, I realized it was about time to generate and distribute some web content on this race. 

The country can simply not afford Warner's tax hikes right now.  His fiscal record is shocking and it's important that this issue be raised.

So I touched up and posted a video I had been working on.  I hope others will help get the word out:

Had dinner earier this week with some local Young Republican toughs and a member of the Virginia House of Delegates. Lots of topics were on the table, but the big one was what's eating the GOP?

The Delegate's answer was interesting: It's the case of a party that wants to be loved for something it isn't, and afraid of being loved for who they are.

Which brings the obvious question, posed so long ago by Pete Townshend:

Who Are You?

I really want to know.

Are Republicans the folks who believe in their creed -- the one they print on their membership cards --  or in the parentheses?

That the free enterprise system is the most productive supplier of human needs and economic justice (except when it comes to smart growth...we kinda like that)

That all individuals are entitled to equal rights, justice, and opportunities and should assume their responsibilities as citizens in a free society (but school choice still gives us the willies)

That fiscal responsibility and budgetary restraints must be exercised at all levels of government (except when there's a surplus, then it's Katie bar the door!)

That the Federal Government must preserve individual liberty by observing constitutional limitations (but REAL ID isn't all that bad, is it?)

That peace is best preserved through a strong national defense (and maybe a sales tax holiday, because without duct tape, the terrorists win!)

That faith in God, as recognized by our Founding Fathers, is essential to the moral fibre of the Nation (except for that hippie Jefferson with his Deism and science and weird ideas about freedom of conscience).

Which is it? I dunno...but they had better decide soon.

• Presidential stuff:
  • Bob Novak puts McCain ahead in the electoral college. Would this even be a race if we nominated anyone else?
  • McCain beats Obama in Michigan. Are these bitter, churchgoing, gun owning working class whites? MyDD notes that putting Hillary on the ticket would swing the state back to the Dems
  • McCain winning the foreign policy fight.
  • White women don't like Barack.
  • Barack has another pastor problem.
• Sarah Palin getting looked at by McCain.
• Senate races:
  • Wicker down by 1 in the MS Senate race. We need more info on this.
  • Rothenberg calls LA Senate a tossup. We need more info on this.
• Tom Davis unloads on VA GOP.
• Richard Cizik on evangelicals and global warming.
• Obama's first 100 days: an attack on 14% of the US economy.
• A Democrat lies in VA-11.

The latest electoral polling and posturing gives Republicans reason to be optimistic as well as reason to worry.

First, the reasons to be optimistic.

The electoral math, at this time, continues to favor John McCain. If the election were held today, McCain would almost certainly win. Obama continues to poll in the low to mid 40's and he lags the Democratic generic dramatically. Today's generic vote (Rasmussen Reports) shows the Democrats at +8. There would be every reason to believe that the Republicans are going to get mauled in the House and Senate. Obama, on the other hand, is at a -2 with a paltry 44% horserace number. The electoral math just doesn't seem to add up for him. The question is whether or not he will do damage to the undercard.

McCain needs 270 electoral votes to win. He is virtually assured of 189 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. In those states, Obama's message of fascist liberal elitism, rabid, toxic racism and canary yellow national security cowardice, just isn't selling well.

In addition, McCain is much safer in the the critical swing states of Missouri and Florida then anyone had ever imagined he would be. This increases his total to 227- a mere 43 short of paydirt.

Crucial to knocking down that last 43 is to win at least one of the the 3 biggest battlegrounds of Michigan (17), Ohio (20) and Pennsylvania (21). Obama lost Ohio and Pennsylvania big during primary season because of blue collar white voters disgusted by his rabid racist elitism. Michigan, had it been officially contested, probably would have followed suit.

Winning all 3 would give McCain the White House with at least 285 electoral votes. Winning any 2 would mean an almost certain election for the Republican. Not winning any of the 3 would mean almost certain death.

Let's assume McCain wins the smallest of the 3- Michigan. Michigan's 17 electoral votes gets him to 244- 26 short.

Nevada likely gets him to 249 but to close the remaining gap, he will likely need Virginia. Virginia (13) hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964 and Republicans won it comfortably in both 2000 and 2004. Yet, changing demographics in the Old Dominion have put it in play.

Therein, lies the bad news. With Mark Warner on the ticket, speculation is swirling as to whether Democrats could take this state in a Presidential contest.

Assuming they could, McCain's path to the White House becomes much tougher-though still not impossible. Without Virginia's 13 votes, McCain would either have to win 2 of the big 3 battlegrounds (getting to 264 or 265) and retain Colorado (9) or Iowa (7) for the GOP. Odds are against him to do that.

So, it would all seem to come down to one State- Wisconsin (10).

The latest polling in Wisconsin shows McCain ahead by 4 points but I am sure he is not comfortable with his election hinging on this state. Democratic election day corruption in Wisconsin is legendary.

With Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire (4) leaning to the dems, and Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all at least in play for McCain, Virginia is looking like a must hold state for the GOP and a must get for dems. After victories in 2001, 2005 and 2006, Democrats are licking their chops in Virginia. They may be setting themselves up for a fall.

Obama's elitism doesn't sell well in Virginia and, despite an explosion of illegals (and other liberal trash) in Northern VA, the State is still Conservative. The winner of Virginia will almost certainly win the White House. Without Warner on the ticket, that is much easier for the GOP. However, Obama's weaknesses may be enough to even offset Obama's strengths in VA.

~Sonlit